The massive AISC guidance hike (+18% to $2,700/oz ceiling) combined with Q2 costs up 48% signals material cost inflation at Blanket. The gold price rally masks underlying operational deterioration — watch for margin compression if gold pulls back. The $150M convertible note (5.875% coupon, due 2033) provides ample liquidity for Bilboes but introduces potential dilution at $40.51/sh. Monitor progress on grade improvement in H2 2026 and the maiden Motapa resource estimate expected in Q3 2026.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Caledonia Mining reported Q2 2026 results with revenue of $75.9M (+16.2% YoY) and operating profit of $41.7M (+17.8% YoY), driven by a 33.7% increase in the average realized gold price to $4,259/oz, which more than offset a 17.6% drop in gold production at Blanket to 17,360 oz due to lower grades. However, all-in sustaining cost (AISC) per ounce spiked 48.3% YoY to $2,678/oz, driven by higher employee benefit costs from BETS dividend distributions, increased royalties, and advisory fees. Management reaffirmed 2026 production guidance of 72,000-76,500 oz but revised AISC guidance sharply higher to $2,500-$2,700/oz, while the company held $167.8M in net cash after closing the $150M convertible note offering to fund the Bilboes sulphide project.
Key Facts
- Q2 2026 revenue was $75.9M, up 16.2% from $65.3M in Q2 2025.
- Q2 2026 gold production at Blanket was 17,360 oz, down 17.6% from 21,070 oz in Q2 2025.
- Average realized gold price per ounce was $4,259 in Q2 2026, up 33.7% from $3,186.
- Consolidated AISC per ounce was $2,678 in Q2 2026, up 48.3% from $1,805 in Q2 2025.
- 2026 AISC guidance raised to $2,500-$2,700/oz from prior $2,100-$2,300/oz.
- 2026 production guidance at Blanket reaffirmed at 72,000-76,500 oz.
- Net cash and cash equivalents as of June 30, 2026 was $167.8M, up from $23.8M at Dec 31, 2025.
- In January 2026, the company issued $150M of 5.875% Convertible Senior Notes due 2033.
- Gross profit for H1 2026 was $71.3M, up 17.4% from $60.7M in H1 2025.
- Net profit attributable to shareholders was $23.8M in Q2 2026, up 16.2% from $20.5M in Q2 2025.
Financial Impact
Revenue +16.2% YoY to $75.9M; AISC +48.3% to $2,678/oz; net cash $167.8M after $150M convertible note issuance.
Risk Factors
- Sharply higher AISC guidance ($2,500-$2,700/oz) due to BETS dividends, higher royalties, and advisory fees could compress margins if gold prices decline.
- Blanket gold production fell 17.6% YoY in Q2 due to lower grades; constrained access to higher-grade areas may continue.
- Zimbabwe currency risk (ZiG devaluation) contributed $1.7M in realized FX losses in Q2.
- Execution risk on $48M Bilboes sulphide project capex in 2026; first gold pour not expected until late 2028.
- Dilution overhang from $150M convertible notes (conversion price ~$40.51, 24.68 shares per $1,000 principal).
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 9 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 6-K Filing (Primary) | 0001104659-26-092896 |
| Document: cmcl-20260630xex99d2.htm | 0001104659-26-092896 |
| Document: cmcl-20260630x6k.htm | 0001104659-26-092896 |
| Document: cmcl-20260630xex99d3.htm | 0001104659-26-092896 |
| Document: cmcl-20260630xex99d4.htm | 0001104659-26-092896 |
| Document: cmcl-20260630xex99d5.htm | 0001104659-26-092896 |
| Document: 0001104659-26-092896-index-headers.html | 0001104659-26-092896 |
| Document: 0001104659-26-092896-index.html | 0001104659-26-092896 |
| Document: 0001104659-26-092896.txt | 0001104659-26-092896 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 19, 2026 8d ago | 6-K | $23.41 $21.37 | ▼ −8.71% | ▼ −8.57% | $21.37 (−8.71%) |
Oct 16, 2026 11d ago | 6-K | $23.54 $21.26 | ▼ −9.69% | ▼ −9.26% | $21.37 (−9.22%) |
Oct 15, 2026 12d ago | 6-K | $23.70 $21.86 | ▼ −7.76% | ▼ −6.75% | $21.37 (−9.83%) |
Oct 13, 2026 14d ago | 6-K | $23.73 $23.21 | ▼ −2.19% | ▼ −1.04% | $21.37 (−9.95%) |
Oct 9, 2026 18d ago | 6-K | $23.75 $23.54 | ▲ +0.88% | ▼ −1.08% | $21.37 (+10.02%) |
Sep 28, 2026 29d ago | 6-K | $23.30 $24.34 | ▲ +4.46% | ▲ +3.26% | $21.37 (−8.28%) |
Sep 24, 2026 4w ago | 6-K | $23.87 $23.77 | ▼ −0.42% | ▼ −0.00% | $21.37 (−10.47%) |
Sep 23, 2026 4w ago | 6-K | $24.13 $23.54 | ▼ −2.45% | ▼ −1.77% | $21.37 (−11.44%) |
Sep 22, 2026 5w ago | 6-K | $24.94 $23.42 | ▼ −6.09% | ▼ −4.91% | $21.37 (−14.31%) |
Sep 14, 2026 6w ago | 6-K | $25.22 $24.14 | ▼ −4.28% | ▼ −4.39% | $21.37 (−15.27%) |
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