Monitor Q4 2026 production for recovery to 19,800-23,300 oz range and successful commissioning of compressors and elution capacity. The Bilboes development project remains on track with $43M growth capex unchanged, but sustained operational issues could pressure cash flows and delay the project.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Caledonia Mining reported Q3 2026 gold production of 17,030 ounces, down 10.9% YoY from 19,106 ounces, and lowered FY 2026 production guidance to 69,000-72,500 ounces from 72,000-76,500 ounces. The miss was driven by compressed air shortages at deeper mining levels and temporary gold retention in the processing circuit. On-mine cost and AISC guidance were also raised, while total capex guidance was reduced to $94.3 million from $103.3 million.
Key Facts
- Q3 2026 gold production: 17,030 oz vs 19,106 oz in Q3 2025 (-10.9%)
- 9-month 2026 production: 49,158 oz vs 58,846 oz in 9-month 2025 (-16.5%)
- FY 2026 production guidance lowered to 69,000-72,500 oz from 72,000-76,500 oz
- On-mine cost per oz revised to $1,700-$1,900 from $1,600-$1,800
- AISC guidance revised to $2,650-$2,850/oz from $2,500-$2,700/oz
- Total capex guidance reduced to $94.3M from $103.3M, primarily due to timing of 132kV power line project
- Grade declined to 2.67 g/t from 3.00 g/t YoY; recovery fell to 92.2% from 93.3%
- Approximately 1,100 oz of free-gold temporarily retained in metallurgical plant; expected recovery from mid-October
- Four new compressors delayed; two deployed, two en route to mine
Financial Impact
Production shortfall of ~3,000-4,000 oz vs prior guidance midpoint; cost per oz up ~$100-$150; capex reduced by $9M
Risk Factors
- Further delays in compressor deployment could extend production shortfall into Q4
- Grade decline and recovery issues may persist, impacting unit costs
- Higher AISC ($2,650-$2,850/oz) could compress margins if gold prices weaken
- Bilboes development funding relies on internal cash flows; sustained underperformance may require external financing
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 5 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 6-K Filing (Primary) | 0001683168-26-007728 |
| Document: caledonia_6k.htm | 0001683168-26-007728 |
| Document: 0001683168-26-007728-index-headers.html | 0001683168-26-007728 |
| Document: 0001683168-26-007728-index.html | 0001683168-26-007728 |
| Document: 0001683168-26-007728.txt | 0001683168-26-007728 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 19, 2026 8d ago | 6-K | $23.41 $21.37 | ▼ −8.71% | ▼ −8.57% | $21.81 (−6.83%) |
Oct 16, 2026 11d ago | 6-K | $23.54 $21.26 | ▼ −9.69% | ▼ −9.26% | $21.81 (−7.35%) |
Oct 15, 2026 12d ago | 6-K | $23.70 $21.86 | ▼ −7.76% | ▼ −6.75% | $21.81 (−7.97%) |
Oct 13, 2026 14d ago | 6-K | $23.73 $23.21 | ▼ −2.19% | ▼ −1.04% | $21.81 (−8.09%) |
Oct 9, 2026 18d ago | 6-K | $23.75 $23.54 | ▲ +0.88% | ▼ −1.08% | $21.81 (+8.17%) |
Sep 28, 2026 29d ago | 6-K | $23.30 $24.34 | ▲ +4.46% | ▲ +3.26% | $21.81 (−6.39%) |
Sep 24, 2026 4w ago | 6-K | $23.87 $23.77 | ▼ −0.42% | ▼ −0.00% | $21.81 (−8.63%) |
Sep 23, 2026 4w ago | 6-K | $24.13 $23.54 | ▼ −2.45% | ▼ −1.77% | $21.81 (−9.61%) |
Sep 22, 2026 5w ago | 6-K | $24.94 $23.42 | ▼ −6.09% | ▼ −4.91% | $21.81 (−12.55%) |
Sep 14, 2026 6w ago | 6-K | $25.22 $24.14 | ▼ −4.28% | ▼ −4.39% | $21.81 (−13.52%) |
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