The investor day introduces compelling FY29 targets that could drive multiple expansion if execution is delivered, particularly as CSG grows to 40%+ of EBITDA (attracting construction-materials multiples). Near-term, watch for TAG program cadence and WV micro-mill ramp. The $600M buyback authorization provides downside support. Key risk is macro steel cycle; targets assume mid-cycle conditions with 25% tariff baseline.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
CMC held its 2026 Investor Day, unveiling FY29 mid-cycle financial targets of $1.65B-$1.80B Core EBITDA (15-16% margin), $1.375B-$1.525B Free Cash Flow, and 13-14.5% ROIC. The Board also authorized a $600M incremental share repurchase, bringing total capacity to ~$717M. The company is positioning as a diversified early-stage construction solutions provider with structurally higher margins and lower capital intensity.
Key Facts
- FY29 mid-cycle Core EBITDA target: $1,650M-$1,800M (vs. TTM Q3 FY26 $1,259M)
- FY29 mid-cycle Core EBITDA Margin target: 15.0%-16.0% (vs. TTM Q3 FY26 14.2%)
- FY29 mid-cycle Free Cash Flow target: $1,375M-$1,525M (vs. TTM Q3 FY26 $746M)
- FY29 ROIC target: 13.0%-14.5%
- Construction Solutions Group targeted at 40%+ of Core EBITDA by FY29 (vs. ~28% currently)
- $600M incremental share repurchase authorized; total available capacity ~$717M
- Approximately $733M repurchased under existing program since October 2021
- Net leverage 2.1x adjusted for acquisitions; target <2.0x; available liquidity $1.7B
- TAG program targeting $350M+ gross annual EBITDA benefits by end of FY27
- Precast acquisitions (Foley, CP&P) expected to deliver $30M-$40M annualized EBITDA synergies by year 3
Financial Impact
FY29 Core EBITDA target represents ~31-43% growth from TTM Q3 FY26 level of $1,259M. Free Cash Flow target nearly doubles from $746M to $1,375-1,525M. Share repurchase adds $600M capacity to existing program (total ~$717M).
Risk Factors
- Execution risk on TAG program and achieving $350M+ EBITDA benefits by FY27
- Macroeconomic downturn or steel price decline could derail mid-cycle targets
- Failure to deleverage to <2.0x target within expected timeframe
- PSG litigation and other legal proceedings could create material liability
- Increased steel import levels or adverse trade policy changes
- Integrated precast acquisitions may underperform on synergies
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 7 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001193125-26-333797 |
| Document: d95091d8k.htm | 0001193125-26-333797 |
| Document: d95091dex991.htm | 0001193125-26-333797 |
| Document: d95091dex993.htm | 0001193125-26-333797 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-333797-index-headers.html | 0001193125-26-333797 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-333797-index.html | 0001193125-26-333797 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-333797.txt | 0001193125-26-333797 |
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 15, 2026 12d ago | 8-K | $65.37 $63.79 | ▼ −2.42% | ▼ −1.40% | $63.61 (−2.69%) |
Oct 13, 2026 14d ago | 8-K | $64.77 $64.65 | ▼ −0.19% | ▲ +0.97% | $63.61 (−1.79%) |
Sep 21, 2026 5w ago | Press Release | $65.00 | awaiting T+5 | — | $63.61 (−2.14%) |
Aug 27, 2026 8w ago | Press Release | $68.76 $68.75 | ▲ +0.01% | ▲ +0.28% | $63.61 (+7.49%) |
Aug 5, 2026 11w ago | 8-K | $75.67 $72.34 | ▼ −4.40% | ▼ −4.75% | $63.61 (−15.94%) |
Apr 13, 2026 28w ago | 8-K | $65.94 $67.52 | ▲ +2.40% | ▲ +1.00% | $63.61 (−3.53%) |
US Market Status
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