The strong Q4 beat combined with a $1B buyback authorization and raised dividend signals management confidence in sustained cash flow generation. Watch for FY2027 execution on 120+ new store openings and whether fuel margins can sustain above 40 cents/gallon. The S&P 500 inclusion may drive incremental passive fund demand.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Casey's reported a record fiscal Q4 2026 with diluted EPS of $4.37 (up 66.2% YoY) and EBITDA of $350.3M (up 33.2% YoY), driven by strong inside same-store sales growth of 5.5% and fuel margin expansion to 46.9 cents/gallon. The company also announced a $1B share repurchase authorization, a 14% dividend increase to $0.65/quarter, and issued FY2027 EBITDA growth guidance of 8-10%, signaling continued operational momentum.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q4 2026 diluted EPS of $4.37, up 66.2% YoY from $2.63
- Q4 2026 net income of $162.7M, up 65.5% YoY
- Q4 2026 EBITDA of $350.3M, up 33.2% YoY
- Inside same-store sales up 5.5% YoY (7.4% two-year stack)
- Fuel margin of 46.9 cents/gallon, up from 37.6 cents YoY
- Board authorized $1B share repurchase program expansion
- Quarterly dividend increased 14% to $0.65 per share (27th consecutive annual increase)
- FY2027 guidance: EBITDA growth 8-10%, inside same-store sales +2-5%, inside margin above 42%
- FY2026 full-year diluted EPS of $19.16, up 30.9% YoY
- FY2026 full-year EBITDA of $1.48B, up 23.6% YoY
- Company added to S&P 500 Index during fiscal year
- Casey's Rewards grew to nearly 10.5 million members
Financial Impact
Q4 EPS beat consensus by 5.5% ($4.37 vs $3.31 est); FY2027 EBITDA guided to 8-10% growth implying ~$1.60-1.63B; $1B buyback authorization represents ~3.6% of $27.8B market cap
Risk Factors
- Fuel margin normalization from elevated 46.9 cents/gallon level
- Operating expense growth of 10.1% in Q4 partly driven by variable compensation
- FY2027 guidance implies deceleration from FY2026's 23.6% EBITDA growth to 8-10%
- Store expansion plan of 120+ stores requires $800M capex, up from $656M in FY2026
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 5 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0000726958-26-000033 |
| Exhibit: ex31eighthamendedandrestat.htm | 0000726958-26-000033 |
| Exhibit: ex102formofawardagreementr.htm | 0000726958-26-000033 |
| Exhibit: ex103formofawardagreemente.htm | 0000726958-26-000033 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0000726958-26-000033 |
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