The raised guidance and record data-center-driven order backlog (orders up 300% in data centers) signal accelerating demand into H2 2026. Watch for margin recovery commentary on the earnings call — if management can demonstrate improving price/cost dynamics, the stock could re-rate higher. The Riello and NORESCO exits reduce portfolio complexity but create ~$350M in year-over-year revenue headwinds.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Carrier reported Q2 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.86, beating consensus of $0.82 by 4.9%, on revenue of $6.35B vs $6.03B consensus (+5.3% beat). The company raised full-year guidance to $23B in sales (from $22B) and $2.90 adjusted EPS (from $2.80), citing record backlog, 40% total order growth, and 300% data center order growth. However, GAAP EPS declined 14% YoY to $0.60 and adjusted EPS fell 7% YoY, with operating margins compressing 190bps to 17.2% due to input cost inflation and unfavorable mix. The raised outlook and strong order momentum are the primary catalysts, but the YoY earnings decline tempers the bullish case.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Adjusted EPS of $0.86 beat consensus of $0.82 by 4.9%
- Revenue of $6.35B beat consensus of $6.03B by 5.3%
- Full-year guidance raised: sales to ~$23B (from $22B), adj. EPS to $2.90 (from $2.80)
- Total company orders up 40% YoY; Commercial HVAC orders up 65%; data center orders up 300%
- GAAP EPS declined 14% YoY to $0.60; adjusted EPS declined 7% YoY to $0.86
- Adjusted operating margin contracted 190bps to 17.2% due to input costs and unfavorable mix
- Free cash flow of $810M in Q2 vs $568M a year ago; returned $640M to shareholders via dividends and buybacks
- Riello divestiture completed July 1; NORESCO exit announced
Financial Impact
Raised FY2026 guidance by $1B in sales and $0.10 in adjusted EPS; Q2 revenue beat consensus by ~$320M
Risk Factors
- YoY adjusted EPS and operating margin continue to decline despite revenue growth
- Input cost inflation and unfavorable business mix are pressuring margins across all segments
- Residential HVAC in China (RLC) remains under pressure; Middle East conflict impacting JV income
- NORESCO exit and new U.S. factory costs create a $0.05 headwind to full-year adj. EPS
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001783180-26-000030 |
| Document: carr-20260728.htm | 0001783180-26-000030 |
| Document: 0001783180-26-000030-index-headers.html | 0001783180-26-000030 |
| Document: 0001783180-26-000030-index.html | 0001783180-26-000030 |
| Document: 0001783180-26-000030.txt | 0001783180-26-000030 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001783180-26-000030 |
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jul 30, 2026 9w ago | Press Release | $61.39 $58.84 | ▲ +4.15% | ▲ +8.12% | $55.12 (+10.21%) |
Jul 28, 2026 9w ago | S-3ASR | $59.92 $58.74 | ▼ −1.97% | ▼ −6.99% | $55.12 (−8.01%) |
Jul 28, 2026 9w ago | 8-K | $63.16 $58.52 | ▼ −7.35% | ▼ −10.73% | $55.12 (−12.73%) |
Jul 27, 2026 9w ago | Press Release | $69.33 $59.97 | ▼ −13.50% | ▼ −16.80% | $55.12 (−20.50%) |
Apr 30, 2026 22w ago | 8-K | $66.97 $63.85 | ▼ −4.66% | ▼ −9.88% | $55.12 (−17.69%) |
Mar 3, 2026 30w ago | DEFA14A | $61.16 $56.28 | ▼ −7.98% | ▼ −3.58% | $55.12 (−9.87%) |
Feb 28, 2026 30w ago | Institutional Cluster | $63.83 $54.35 | ▼ −14.85% | ▼ −6.91% | $55.12 (−13.64%) |
US Market Status
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