The investor day presentation reinforces Badger Meter's long-term secular growth narrative in smart water but introduces no new near-term catalysts beyond the already-known project pipeline. The 6-8% organic revenue CAGR target is in line with historical execution. Watch for 2H 2026 milestone deployments from the PRASA (1.6M connections) and Utility 2 (330K turnkey) projects — delays or accelerations there would be the next material catalyst. The $115M buyback provides a valuation floor but is not a near-term driver. The stock's ~25% T+20 win rate in the model's past reports suggests the narrative alone is insufficient to move shares — wait for actual execution data.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Badger Meter hosted its 2026 Investor Day on May 21, 2026, presenting a comprehensive strategic and financial update. The company highlighted its $917M in 2025 sales, a 17% CAGR from 2020-2025, $218M in EBITDA (24% margin), and guided to a multi-year outlook of 6-8% organic revenue growth, 39-42% gross margins, and 25-30% EBITDA incrementals. Management emphasized an expanding TAM driven by the digital transformation of the water sector, a large pipeline of awarded AMI projects (~2.6M-3.6M connections), and a capital allocation program including $115M remaining on its buyback authorization. The filing is an investor day presentation with forward-looking commentary but no new hard financial guidance or earnings release — it reinforces the long-term investment thesis without changing near-term fundamentals.
Key Facts
- 2025 sales of $917M, a 17% CAGR from 2020-2025
- 2025 EBITDA of $218M at 24% margin
- 120% free cash flow conversion in 2025
- Guided to 6-8% organic revenue CAGR over 5 years
- Targeting 39-42% gross margins in current environment
- Targeting 25-30% EBITDA incrementals and 10-15% EPS growth
- ~2.6M-3.6M awarded meter connections to deploy over multiple years starting 2H 2026
- $115M remaining on share repurchase authorization
- 33 consecutive years of dividend increases (11% CAGR since 1992)
- SaaS revenue targeted to reach 11-12% of sales by 2030+
- Smart water market TAM estimated at ~$25B annually globally
Financial Impact
No new financial results reported. The filing provides long-term targets but no changes to current-year guidance. Major multi-year deployment pipeline valued at ~$500M+ in M&A dry powder referenced.
Risk Factors
- Multi-year project deployments may face pacing delays from utility planning cycles and labor constraints
- Tariff pressures and input cost inflation (copper, tin, resins) could pressure gross margins below the 39-42% target range
- Turnkey vs. supply-only project mix can distort near-term revenue comparisons
- Forward-looking statements and long-term targets are not guidance — execution risk is real
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 5 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001193125-26-233404 |
| Document: bmi-20260521.htm | 0001193125-26-233404 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-233404-index-headers.html | 0001193125-26-233404 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-233404-index.html | 0001193125-26-233404 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-233404.txt | 0001193125-26-233404 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 3, 2026 8w ago | Institutional Cluster | $136.95 $135.47 | ▼ −1.08% | ▼ −2.32% | $127.77 (−6.70%) |
Jul 27, 2026 9w ago | Press Release | $134.58 $136.36 | ▼ −1.32% | ▲ +2.06% | $127.77 (+5.06%) |
Jul 22, 2026 10w ago | 8-K | $126.67 $130.94 | ▼ −3.37% | ▼ −0.47% | $127.77 (−0.87%) |
Jun 11, 2026 16w ago | 8-K | $130.52 $144.97 | ▲ +11.07% | ▲ +9.18% | $127.77 (−2.11%) |
May 21, 2026 19w ago | 8-K | $119.84 $135.32 | ▲ +12.91% | ▲ +12.58% | $127.77 (+6.62%) |
Apr 28, 2026 22w ago | 8-K | $117.47 $124.74 | ▲ +6.19% | ▲ +0.14% | $127.77 (+8.77%) |
Apr 21, 2026 23w ago | Insider Cluster | $120.89 $118.96 | ▼ −1.60% | ▼ −6.51% | $127.77 (+5.69%) |
Apr 21, 2026 23w ago | Insider Cluster | $120.89 $118.96 | ▼ −1.60% | ▼ −6.51% | $127.77 (+5.69%) |
Apr 21, 2026 23w ago | Insider Cluster | $120.89 $118.96 | ▼ −1.60% | ▼ −6.51% | $127.77 (+5.69%) |
Apr 17, 2026 24w ago | 8-K | $115.54 $117.54 | ▼ −1.73% | ▲ +3.64% | $127.77 (−10.59%) |
US Market Status
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