The downgrade trend and falling EPS estimates are bearish, but the low accuracy of DA Davidson and strong institutional buying create a mixed signal. Traders should watch for further downgrades or a break below $410 (low target) to confirm downside.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
DA Davidson double downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral on May 6, 2026, cutting its price target from $465 to $437, implying just 1.5% upside from the current $430.56. The firm has a below-average 40% accuracy rate on 5 calls, with an average return of 7.7%. Consensus remains mixed: 10 Buy, 7 Hold, 0 Sell among 17 analysts, with a mean target of $478.91 (11.2% upside). The downgrade follows a string of recent downgrades — JP Morgan (Apr 21) and Seaport Global (Apr 7) also moved to Neutral. EPS revisions are trending lower: 6 downward revisions vs 1 upward in the last 30 days for the current fiscal year. Institutional buying is strong — Morgan Stanley added 55.5% and UBS added 51.9% — diverging from the analyst downgrade signal. Bottom line: a low-accuracy firm's contrarian downgrade carries less weight, but the broader trend of downgrades and falling estimates warrants caution.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus is mixed: 3 Strong Buy, 7 Buy, 7 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell among 17 analysts. The majority (10 of 17) are still bullish, but the 7 Hold votes reflect growing caution. The consensus is leaning bullish but with a notable neutral contingent.
Current price: $430.56. Mean target: $478.91 (11.2% upside). Median target: $496 (15.2% upside). High target: $520 (20.8% upside). Low target: $410 (4.8% downside). DA Davidson's $437 target is below the mean and median, near the low end of the range, signaling a bearish outlier view.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | DA Davidson | downgrade | Neutral | $437.00 |
| 2026-04-21 | JP Morgan | downgrade | Neutral | $496.00 |
| 2026-04-20 | DA Davidson | maintain | Buy | $465.00 |
| 2026-04-13 | Evercore ISI Group | maintain | In-Line | $407.00 |
| 2026-04-08 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Overweight | $475.00 |
| 2026-04-07 | Seaport Global | downgrade | Neutral | — |
| 2026-03-18 | DA Davidson | maintain | Buy | — |
| 2026-02-27 | RBC Capital | maintain | Sector Perform | $433.00 |
| 2026-02-27 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Overweight | $525.00 |
| 2026-02-27 | Benchmark | maintain | Buy | $500.00 |
In the last 30 days: 0 upgrades, 3 downgrades (DA Davidson, JP Morgan, Seaport Global). EPS revisions are negative: 6 downward revisions vs 1 upward for the current fiscal year, and 7 downward vs 0 upward for next year. Estimates are being revised lower across all periods.
Firm Track Record — DA Davidson
DA Davidson accuracy: 53% on 1587 calls | avg return: 3.2%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 9 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seaport Global | 100% | 2/2 | -7% | top tier |
| Loop Capital | 67% | 2/3 | 16.7% | top tier |
| Stephens & Co. | 67% | 2/3 | 18.8% | top tier |
| Evercore ISI Group | 60% | 6/10 | -1.6% | above average |
| Benchmark | 50% | 2/4 | 3.3% | below average |
| Goldman Sachs | 50% | 1/2 | -1.4% | below average |
| Truist Securities | 50% | 2/4 | 1.4% | below average |
| DA Davidson | 40% | 2/5 | 7.7% | below average |
| Jefferies | 0% | 0/3 | -13.5% | below average |
DA Davidson has a 40% accuracy rate on 5 calls, below the average of firms covering this stock. The best performing firms are Seaport Global (100% on 2 calls), Loop Capital (67% on 3 calls), and Stephens & Co. (67% on 3 calls). The worst is Jefferies (0% on 3 calls, avg return -13.5%). DA Davidson's track record is below average, so this downgrade carries less conviction.
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1q | $4.76 | $4.35 — $5.03 | $1.5B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| 0q | $3.64 | $3.50 — $3.88 | $1.4B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| 0y | $18.20 | $17.39 — $18.94 | $6.0B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| +1y | $20.95 | $18.69 — $22.98 | $6.3B | ↑0 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider trades: none reported. Congressional trades: none. Institutional changes show strong buying: Morgan Stanley added 55.5% ($193M), UBS added 51.9% ($96.5M), and Norges Bank initiated a new $105M position. However, Norges Bank also exited a prior position. This institutional buying diverges from the analyst downgrade signal, suggesting smart money is accumulating while analysts turn cautious.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 3, 2026 8w ago | Institutional Cluster | — | awaiting T+1 | — | — |
Jul 1, 2026 13w ago | 25-NSE | $354.53 $354.53 | · 0.00% | ▲ +0.13% | — |
Jun 29, 2026 13w ago | 8-K | $354.53 $354.53 | · 0.00% | ▲ +0.14% | — |
Jun 22, 2026 14w ago | 425 | $413.47 $407.41 | ▼ −1.47% | ▼ −0.01% | — |
Jun 22, 2026 14w ago | 8-K | $413.47 $407.41 | ▼ −1.47% | ▼ −0.01% | — |
Jun 22, 2026 14w ago | 425 | $413.47 $407.41 | ▼ −1.47% | ▼ −0.01% | — |
Jun 11, 2026 16w ago | Institutional Cluster | $409.84 $411.08 | ▲ +0.30% | ▼ −0.24% | — |
Jun 4, 2026 17w ago | 425 | $401.82 $399.03 | ▼ −0.69% | ▼ −0.92% | — |
Jun 4, 2026 17w ago | 8-K | $401.82 $399.03 | ▼ −0.69% | ▼ −0.92% | — |
May 29, 2026 17w ago | DEFM14A | $412.19 $407.07 | ▼ −1.24% | ▼ −1.39% | — |
US Market Status
Subscribe to SecBot
Get Real-Time SEC Filing Intelligence
Comprehensive SEC filing analysis delivered the moment filings hit EDGAR. Sentiment scoring, impact analysis, and actionable insights for every material event.
Try SecBot Free Coming soon: SecBot Pro with alerts, watchlists, and API access