The downgrade from a mid-tier firm conflicts with strong institutional buying and a still-bullish consensus. Traders should monitor for earnings catalysts or further institutional divergence; no immediate action warranted.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
JP Morgan initiated a double downgrade from Overweight to Neutral with a new price target of $496, up slightly from $487, implying 21% upside from the current $410.31. The firm has a 55% accuracy rate (3,163/5,703 calls) and average return of 5.6%, below top-tier peers like Loop Capital (67%, +16.7%) and Stephens & Co. (67%, +18.8%). Consensus remains bullish: 14 analysts, mean PT $474.79, median $485.50. Recent analyst activity shows 2 downgrades, 0 upgrades. EPS estimates are trending down: 30-day revisions show 1 up, 3 down for current year. Institutional inflows include $193M and $116M adds from Morgan Stanley; Norges Bank exited. No earnings date is scheduled within 30 days. Sentiment is mixed due to downgrade from a mid-tier firm against a bullish consensus and rising institutional accumulation.
Impact Score
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | JP Morgan | downgrade | Neutral | $496.00 |
| 2026-04-20 | DA Davidson | maintain | Buy | $465.00 |
| 2026-04-13 | Evercore ISI Group | maintain | In-Line | $407.00 |
| 2026-04-08 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Overweight | $475.00 |
| 2026-04-07 | Seaport Global | downgrade | Neutral | — |
| 2026-03-18 | DA Davidson | maintain | Buy | — |
| 2026-02-27 | RBC Capital | maintain | Sector Perform | $433.00 |
| 2026-02-27 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Overweight | $525.00 |
| 2026-02-27 | Benchmark | maintain | Buy | $500.00 |
| 2026-02-27 | Evercore ISI Group | maintain | In-Line | $471.00 |
In the past 30 days, there have been 2 downgrades and 0 upgrades. EPS revisions are negative: for the current year, 1 revision up and 3 down over 30 days; current EPS estimate is $18.28, down from $18.55 a month ago. Forward +1y EPS has declined from $21.47 to $21.08 over 30 days with 4 downward revisions.
Firm Track Record — JP Morgan
JP Morgan accuracy: 55% on 5703 calls | avg return: 5.6%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 9 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seaport Global | 100% | 2/2 | -7% | top tier |
| Loop Capital | 67% | 2/3 | 16.7% | top tier |
| Stephens & Co. | 67% | 2/3 | 18.8% | top tier |
| Evercore ISI Group | 60% | 6/10 | -1.6% | above average |
| Benchmark | 50% | 2/4 | 3.3% | below average |
| Goldman Sachs | 50% | 1/2 | -1.4% | below average |
| Truist Securities | 50% | 2/4 | 1.4% | below average |
| DA Davidson | 40% | 2/5 | 7.7% | below average |
| Jefferies | 0% | 0/3 | -13.5% | below average |
JP Morgan has a 55% accuracy rate (3,163 correct out of 5,703 rated calls) and average return of 5.6% on rated stocks. This is below top performers: Loop Capital (67%, +16.7%), Stephens & Co. (67%, +18.8%), and Seaport Global (100%, -7%). It outperforms low-accuracy firms like Jefferies (0%, -13.5%). JP Morgan ranks mid-tier among covering firms.
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | $3.64 | $3.50 — $3.88 | $1.4B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| 0y | $18.28 | $17.54 — $18.94 | $6.1B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| +1q | $4.79 | $4.35 — $5.06 | $1.5B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| +1y | $21.08 | $18.69 — $22.98 | $6.3B | ↑0 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Institutional activity shows divergence: Morgan Stanley added $309.5M in two positions and UBS added $96.5M, signaling accumulation. However, Norges Bank fully exited a prior $104.9M stake. No insider trades or congressional activity reported. Short interest data is unavailable. Institutional inflows contradict the analyst downgrade signal.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 3, 2026 8w ago | Institutional Cluster | — | awaiting T+1 | — | — |
Jul 1, 2026 13w ago | 25-NSE | $354.53 $354.53 | · 0.00% | ▲ +0.13% | — |
Jun 29, 2026 13w ago | 8-K | $354.53 $354.53 | · 0.00% | ▲ +0.14% | — |
Jun 22, 2026 14w ago | 425 | $413.47 $407.41 | ▼ −1.47% | ▼ −0.01% | — |
Jun 22, 2026 14w ago | 8-K | $413.47 $407.41 | ▼ −1.47% | ▼ −0.01% | — |
Jun 22, 2026 14w ago | 425 | $413.47 $407.41 | ▼ −1.47% | ▼ −0.01% | — |
Jun 11, 2026 16w ago | Institutional Cluster | $409.84 $411.08 | ▲ +0.30% | ▼ −0.24% | — |
Jun 4, 2026 17w ago | 425 | $401.82 $399.03 | ▼ −0.69% | ▼ −0.92% | — |
Jun 4, 2026 17w ago | 8-K | $401.82 $399.03 | ▼ −0.69% | ▼ −0.92% | — |
May 29, 2026 18w ago | DEFM14A | $412.19 $407.07 | ▼ −1.24% | ▼ −1.39% | — |
US Market Status
Subscribe to SecBot
Get Real-Time SEC Filing Intelligence
Comprehensive SEC filing analysis delivered the moment filings hit EDGAR. Sentiment scoring, impact analysis, and actionable insights for every material event.
Try SecBot Free Coming soon: SecBot Pro with alerts, watchlists, and API access