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S-4 ·Filed Jul 17, 2026

BFC

Bank First Corp
NEUTRAL
Impact 3/10
Horizonmonths Processed3mo ago SEC0001104659-26-084686
Actionable Insight • Neutral

The S-4 filing is procedural and does not change the deal's probability. Monitor regulatory approvals (Federal Reserve, OCC, WDFI) and the PSB shareholder vote. The 5% dissenters' rights threshold is a key risk. BFC stock price relative to the $122.11 termination trigger should be tracked.

DirectionNeutral
Confidencehigh
Horizonmonths
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d
BFC ▲ +0.40% at T+60d
NEUTRAL call +0.40% · α vs SPY -4.44% · entry $145.82 → $146.41
Entry = T+0 close
Jul 17, 2026
via day close
T+1d
-0.15%
call -0.15% · α -0.98%
$145.60
settled 3mo ago
T+5d
+3.40%
call +3.40% · α +3.83%
$150.78
settled 3mo ago
T+20d
+7.58%
call +7.58% · α +3.46%
$156.88
settled 2mo ago
T+60d
+0.40%
call +0.40% · α -4.44%
$146.41
settled 15d ago

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Bank First Corp filed a preliminary S-4 registration statement for its acquisition of PSB Holdings, Inc. in a stock-for-stock merger. PSB shareholders will receive 0.3470 BFC shares per PSB share, implying ~$49.85 per share at announcement (80.6% premium). The merger is expected to close in Q4 2026, subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals.

Key Facts

  • Exchange ratio: 0.3470 BFC shares per PSB common share
  • Implied value per PSB share at announcement: ~$49.85 (80.6% premium over PSB's $27.60 close)
  • PSB preferred shareholders to receive 8.83% promissory notes maturing Oct 2027
  • Pro forma combined assets ~$7.6B (BFC $6.07B + PSB $1.5B)
  • BFC to issue ~1.4M shares to PSB common holders
  • Expected closing: Q4 2026, with drop-dead date of Feb 19, 2027
  • PSB may pay $1.00 special dividend if closing delayed past Dec 4, 2026
  • Termination fee of $8.1M payable by PSB in certain circumstances

Financial Impact

Pro forma Q1 2026 EPS of $1.97 vs BFC standalone $1.78 (including Centre acquisition); $84M goodwill and $29M core deposit intangible expected

epsgoodwilltangible book valuedilution

Risk Factors

  • Failure to obtain regulatory approvals or imposition of burdensome conditions
  • PSB shareholders may not achieve 2/3 vote required
  • Dissenters exceeding 5% of PSB shares could block the merger
  • BFC stock decline below $122.11 with >15% underperformance vs Nasdaq Bank Index gives PSB termination right

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq
Sector
National Commercial Banks
Analyst Consensus
67% bullish (6 analysts)

Investment Themes

Traditional Finance

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 8 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
S-4 Filing (BFC) — Batch item 10001104659-26-084686
Document: tm2620547d1_ex-filingfees.htm0001104659-26-084686
Document: tm2620547d2_ex99-2.htm0001104659-26-084686
Document: tm2620547d2_ex23-2.htm0001104659-26-084686
Document: tm2620547d2_ex23-1.htm0001104659-26-084686
Document: 0001104659-26-084686-index-headers.html0001104659-26-084686
Document: 0001104659-26-084686-index.html0001104659-26-084686
Document: 0001104659-26-084686.txt0001104659-26-084686
11 reports for BFC
Performance horizon
33% Hit rate @ T+20 1 of 3 directional calls Went positive at some point 2 of 4 best @ T+60▲ +10.45%May 19, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for BFC — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 20, 2026
6d ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$142.04awaiting T+20—$148.96 (−4.87%)
Sep 22, 2026
4w ago
Institutional Cluster
MIXED ★ 3/10
$150.83 $148.34▼ −1.65%▼ −1.09%$148.96 (−1.24%)
Aug 24, 2026
9w ago
Insider Buy
BULLISH ★ 4/10
$154.08 $150.83▼ −2.11%▼ −3.42%$148.96 (−3.32%)
Aug 4, 2026
12w ago
EFFECT
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$156.08 $150.33▼ −3.68%▼ −2.45%$148.96 (−4.56%)
Jul 30, 2026
12w ago
S-4/A
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$152.74 $152.81▲ +0.05%▼ −2.94%$148.96 (−2.47%)
Jul 17, 2026
14w ago
S-4
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$145.82 $156.88▲ +7.58%▲ +3.46%$148.96 (+2.15%)
Jun 11, 2026
19w ago
Institutional Cluster
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$143.99 $146.67▲ +1.86%▼ −0.03%$148.96 (+3.45%)
May 19, 2026
22w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$143.05 $142.68▼ −0.26%▼ −1.00%$148.96 (+4.13%)
Apr 24, 2026
26w ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$144.19 $142.37▼ −1.26%▼ −5.29%$148.96 (+3.31%)
Apr 22, 2026
26w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$141.83 $143.05▲ +0.86%▼ −3.77%$148.96 (+5.03%)
Showing 10 of 11

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Report published Jul 17, 2026