Despite net institutional outflow, strong insider C-suite buying suggests near-term support. The heavy selling from prominent multi-strat funds (Citadel, RenTech) warrants caution—watch for a breakout below $1.50 (recent support) or a rebound that confirms the insider thesis. Given the stock's historical tendency to decline post-notable filings, consider waiting for a catalyst (e.g., Q3 earnings or Brazil macro data) before entering.
Executive Summary
Bank Bradesco (BBD) saw a mixed institutional 13F cluster for Q2 2026: while 14 buyers including Goldman Sachs and D.E. Shaw accumulated $155.5M in net new value, 11 sellers—led by Massachusetts Financial Services and Citadel—reduced by $178.1M. The combined net was a slight outflow, though heavy insider buying ($2.0M) from C-suite and measurable active manager interest on the buy side add conviction to the bullish tilt, partly offsetting macro headwinds in Brazilian banking.
Key Financial Metrics
Institutional Positions
Net institutional flow: -$22.6M
▲ Buyers (14)
| Institution | Action | Change | Position Value | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | ADD | +45.3% | $213.5M | $58.9M |
| BofA | ADD | +47.7% | $143.9M | $41.4M |
| D.E. Shaw | DOUBLED | +305.8% | $36.8M | $27.3M |
| Millennium | DOUBLED | +151.5% | $9.4M | $5.4M |
| Morgan Stanley | ADD | +83.7% | $50.3M | $21.5M |
▼ Sellers (11)
| Institution | Action | Change | Prev Value | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massachusetts Financial Services | TRIM | -44.6% | $226.3M | -$107.3M |
| RenTech | TRIM | -46.3% | $45.0M | -$22.0M |
| Citadel | TRIM | -59.3% | $21.2M | -$13.0M |
| UBS | TRIM | -42.4% | $25.1M | -$11.4M |
| Citigroup | NEAR_EXIT | -94.6% | $19.9M | -$18.9M |
Key Facts
- 14 institutional buyers added $155.5M in net new value; top buyers include Goldman Sachs (+$58.9M), BofA (+$41.4M), D.E. Shaw (+$27.3M), and Millennium (+$5.4M)
- 11 sellers reduced $178.1M; largest was Massachusetts Financial Services (-$107.3M) and UBS (-$11.4M), with Citadel (-$13.0M) and RenTech (-$22.0M) also trimming
- Sellers dominated by large multi-strategy quant funds (RenTech, Citadel) and asset managers; a significant NEAR_EXIT from Citigroup (-94.6% position) signals deteriorating conviction
- Insider confluences: 2 open-market C-suite buyers totaling $2.0M provide high-conviction corroboration (13F × Form 4 score 90/100)
- Historical performance on BBD filings is negative (avg T+20 P&L -4.57%), suggesting the stock tends to decline after notable reports; past directional calls at score 6 have 42% win rate
- Score calibration indicates that directional scores (6-7) for this filing type have below-50% win rates historically, leading to a conservative impactScore of 5
Financial Impact
14 buyers accumulated $155.5M in net new value, while 11 sellers reduced by $178.1M; net institutional outflow of ~$22.6M. Insider buying adds $2.0M of conviction.
Risk Factors
- Net institutional outflow of $22.6M may weigh on stock; weaker conviction from active managers (Q2 positions may already be unwound)
- Brazilian political/regulatory risk and currency volatility could further depress BBD's ADR prices
- Historical calibration shows flag_score 6's observed win rate at only 42% and p_calib 50%; payoff asymmetry disfavorable (avg alpha negative after costs)
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 institutional 13F filing from SEC EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| INST-CLUSTER Data (Synthetic) | inst-cluster-BBD-2026-Q2 |
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 11, 2026 20d ago | Insider Cluster | $3.54 $3.52 | ▼ −0.56% | ▼ −0.67% | — |
Sep 11, 2026 20d ago | Insider Cluster | $3.54 $3.52 | ▼ −0.56% | ▼ −0.67% | — |
Sep 9, 2026 23d ago | Insider Cluster | $3.43 $3.50 | ▲ +2.04% | ▲ +3.14% | — |
Aug 18, 2026 6w ago | Institutional Cluster | $3.04 $3.25 | ▲ +6.91% | ▲ +7.11% | — |
Aug 6, 2026 8w ago | 6-K | $3.41 $3.15 | ▼ −7.62% | ▼ −8.84% | — |
Jul 13, 2026 11w ago | 6-K | $3.61 $3.54 | ▼ −1.94% | ▼ −1.15% | — |
Jun 11, 2026 16w ago | 6-K | $3.44 $3.43 | ▼ −0.29% | ▼ −0.72% | — |
Jun 3, 2026 17w ago | Insider Cluster | $3.39 $3.30 | ▼ −2.54% | ▲ +1.28% | — |
US Market Status
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