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S-1 ·Filed Aug 13, 2026

BAFN

BayFirst Financial Corp.
BEARISH
Impact 7/10
Horizonweeks Processed2mo ago SEC0001649739-26-000056
IPO registration
Actionable Insight ▼ Bearish

The registration of 22.9M shares for resale by insiders who acquired at an effective $3.50/share creates a massive supply overhang relative to the current $26M market cap. Expect significant downward pressure as selling shareholders (including the 42% owner Kenneth Lehman) begin to monetize positions. The concurrent disclosure of a $38.4M asset resolution plan and a restatement in the auditor's report further undermines confidence. Monitor for the effective date of this S-1 and subsequent Form 4 filings indicating the start of sales.

DirectionBearish
Confidencehigh
Horizonweeks
Latest settled — T+20d ⚠ clustered
BAFN ▲ +35.45% at T+20d
SHORT call ✗ call lost -35.45% · α vs SPY -37.20% · entry $6.46 → $8.75
Next anchor: T+60d in 10d
Latest observation: T+50 -2.71% FF3 residual α
Entry = T+0 close
Aug 13, 2026
via day close
T+1d
-0.77%
call +0.77% · α +0.58%
$6.41
settled 2mo ago
T+5d
+14.24%
call -14.24% · α -16.21%
$7.38
settled 2mo ago
T+20d
+35.45%
call -35.45% · α -37.20%
$8.75
settled 7w ago
T+60d
Pending
in 10d

Executive Summary

BayFirst Financial Corp. filed an S-1 registration statement to register up to 22,856,000 shares of common stock for resale by selling shareholders who acquired the shares through the conversion of Series D and Series E preferred stock issued in a $80M private placement that closed on April 28, 2026. The company will not receive any proceeds from this resale registration, but the massive share overhang (22.9M shares vs. a pre-conversion float likely under 5M shares) creates significant potential selling pressure. The filing also discloses a $38.4M asset resolution plan adjustment, a $1.5M impairment, and a $1.6M write-down, alongside the redemption of $9.7M of Series A and B preferred stock on August 10, 2026.

Key Facts

  • Up to 22,856,000 shares of common stock registered for resale by selling shareholders, representing massive potential dilution/supply overhang.
  • Shares were issued upon conversion of $80M in Series D and E preferred stock from an April 28, 2026 private placement.
  • Company will receive no proceeds from this resale registration.
  • Kenneth R. Lehman owns ~11.4M shares (42.38% of outstanding) and is offering all of them for resale.
  • On August 10, 2026, the company redeemed $9,704,434 of Preferred Series A and Series B stock.
  • An asset resolution plan with Mr. Lehman resulted in $38.4M in adjustments to the loan portfolio, a $1.5M impairment, and a $1.6M write-down.
  • Dividends on common stock were suspended in July 2025.
  • Auditor's report on the 2025 financial statements contains an explanatory paragraph regarding a restatement.
  • Stock closed at $6.20 on August 11, 2026, per the filing.

Financial Impact

Up to 22.9M shares registered for resale at a reference price of $6.20/share implies a potential market overhang of ~$142M, against a pre-filing market cap of ~$26M. The $38.4M in loan portfolio adjustments and related impairments are material relative to the company's size.

dilutionmarket_caploan_portfolio_qualitybook_value

Risk Factors

  • Massive share overhang from up to 22.9M registered shares could overwhelm the thin trading float and depress the stock price.
  • Kenneth R. Lehman's 42.38% stake being offered for sale creates concentrated selling risk and potential control change.
  • The $38.4M asset resolution plan, $1.5M impairment, and $1.6M write-down signal significant credit quality deterioration in the loan portfolio.
  • Dividends remain suspended, and the company is an emerging growth company with reduced disclosure requirements, limiting transparency.
  • The auditor's report includes a restatement explanatory paragraph, indicating prior financial statements were corrected.

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq
Sector
State Commercial Banks

Investment Themes

Traditional Finance

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 7 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
S-1 Filing (Primary)0001649739-26-000056
Exhibit: exfilingfees.htm0001649739-26-000056
Exhibit: exhibit51opinions-1resale.htm0001649739-26-000056
Document: a231forvisconsents-1resale.htm0001649739-26-000056
Document: 0001649739-26-000056-index-headers.html0001649739-26-000056
Document: 0001649739-26-000056-index.html0001649739-26-000056
Document: 0001649739-26-000056.txt0001649739-26-000056
22 reports for BAFN
Performance horizon
100% Hit rate @ T+60 3 of 3 directional calls Went positive at some point 12 of 13 best @ T+5▲ +30.29%Oct 13, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for BAFN — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 19, 2026
8d ago
SC 13D/A
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$6.44awaiting T+60—$6.60 (+2.48%)
Oct 13, 2026
13d ago
SC 13D/A
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$5.25awaiting T+60—$6.60 (+25.71%)
Sep 30, 2026
27d ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$6.81awaiting T+60—$6.60 (−3.08%)
Sep 29, 2026
27d ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$7.21awaiting T+60—$6.60 (−8.46%)
Sep 24, 2026
4w ago
3
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$7.12awaiting T+60—$6.60 (−7.30%)
Sep 24, 2026
4w ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$7.12awaiting T+60—$6.60 (−7.30%)
Sep 1, 2026
8w ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$7.15awaiting T+60—$6.60 (+7.69%)
Aug 27, 2026
8w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$6.61awaiting T+60—$6.60 (−0.15%)
Aug 25, 2026
9w ago
EFFECT
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$7.37awaiting T+60—$6.60 (+10.45%)
Aug 21, 2026
9w ago
S-1/A
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$7.31awaiting T+60—$6.60 (+9.71%)
Showing 10 of 22

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Report published Aug 13, 2026