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EFFECT ·Filed Aug 25, 2026

BAFN

BayFirst Financial Corp.
BEARISH
Impact 7/10
Horizondays Processed2mo ago SEC9999999995-26-002746
IPO/offering going effective
Actionable Insight ▼ Bearish

The effectiveness of the resale registration is the dominant near-term risk — the 22.9M share overhang could overwhelm the thin float, especially with the stock trading above the $3.50 conversion price. Monitor for selling volume spikes from converting preferred holders. The rights offering's best-efforts structure and lack of a minimum subscription mean the capital raise is uncertain; watch for subscription results and any subsequent dilution if the offering is undersubscribed.

DirectionBearish
Confidencehigh
Horizondays
Latest settled — T+20d
BAFN ▲ +12.75% at T+20d
SHORT call ✗ call lost -12.75% · α vs SPY -11.78% · entry $7.37 → $8.31
Next anchor: T+60d in 22d
Latest observation: T+42 +27.26% FF3 residual α
Entry = T+0 close
Aug 25, 2026
via day close
T+1d
-1.09%
call +1.09% · α +1.11%
$7.29
settled 2mo ago
T+5d
-2.99%
call +2.99% · α +2.45%
$7.15
settled 8w ago
T+20d
+12.75%
call -12.75% · α -11.78%
$8.31
settled 5w ago
T+60d
Pending
in 22d

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

BayFirst Financial Corp.'s S-1 registration statement (File No. 333-298300) became effective on August 24, 2026. This effectiveness activates two previously filed offerings: a rights offering of up to 4,107,908 shares at $3.50 per share for up to $14.38M in gross proceeds, and a resale registration covering up to 22,856,000 shares held by selling shareholders from the conversion of Series D/E preferred stock. The resale overhang (22.9M shares vs. a pre-conversion float likely under 5M) creates significant potential selling pressure, while the rights offering provides a capital infusion path on a best-efforts basis with no minimum subscription.

Key Facts

  • S-1 registration (File No. 333-298300) declared effective on August 24, 2026.
  • Effectiveness covers a rights offering of up to 4,107,908 shares at $3.50/share for up to $14.38M in gross proceeds.
  • Effectiveness also covers a resale registration of up to 22,856,000 shares by selling shareholders from Series D/E preferred stock conversion.
  • Company receives no proceeds from the resale registration; the 22.9M share overhang creates substantial dilution risk.
  • Rights offering is best-efforts with no minimum subscription, creating uncertainty about actual capital raised.
  • Cross-filing context includes recent S-1/A filings (Aug 21, 2026) disclosing $38.4M asset resolution plan adjustment, $1.5M impairment, and $1.6M write-down.

Financial Impact

Up to $14.38M in gross proceeds from rights offering; resale registration covers up to 22,856,000 shares with no proceeds to the company.

dilutionshare countcapital levelsfloat

Risk Factors

  • Massive resale overhang of 22.9M shares could drive sustained selling pressure.
  • Rights offering on best-efforts basis with no minimum subscription may fail to raise sufficient capital.
  • Company disclosed $38.4M asset resolution plan adjustment, $1.5M impairment, and $1.6M write-down in recent filings.
  • Common dividends suspended since July 2025, indicating ongoing financial stress.

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq
Sector
State Commercial Banks

Investment Themes

Traditional Finance

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 3 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
EFFECT Filing (Primary)9999999995-26-002746
Document: 9999999995-26-002746-index.html9999999995-26-002746
Document: 9999999995-26-002746.txt9999999995-26-002746
22 reports for BAFN
Performance horizon
100% Hit rate @ T+60 3 of 3 directional calls Went positive at some point 12 of 13 best @ T+5▲ +30.29%Oct 13, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for BAFN — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 19, 2026
7d ago
SC 13D/A
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$6.44awaiting T+60—$6.57 (+2.02%)
Oct 13, 2026
13d ago
SC 13D/A
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$5.25awaiting T+60—$6.57 (+25.14%)
Sep 30, 2026
26d ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$6.81awaiting T+60—$6.57 (−3.52%)
Sep 29, 2026
27d ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$7.21awaiting T+60—$6.57 (−8.88%)
Sep 24, 2026
4w ago
3
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$7.12awaiting T+60—$6.57 (−7.72%)
Sep 24, 2026
4w ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$7.12awaiting T+60—$6.57 (−7.72%)
Sep 1, 2026
7w ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$7.15awaiting T+60—$6.57 (+8.11%)
Aug 27, 2026
8w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$6.61awaiting T+60—$6.57 (−0.61%)
Aug 25, 2026
8w ago
EFFECT
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$7.37awaiting T+60—$6.57 (+10.85%)
Aug 21, 2026
9w ago
S-1/A
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$7.31awaiting T+60—$6.57 (+10.12%)
Showing 10 of 22

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens Wed (11h 44m)

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Report published Aug 25, 2026