ARX shares should trade near the $20.25 deal price with a spread reflecting time value and regulatory risk. Given 82% shareholder support, the deal is highly likely to close. Monitor go-shop period for competing bids and regulatory filings for HSR and insurance approvals. The ticking amount provides modest compensation for delays beyond the initial condition satisfaction date.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Thoma Bravo (through Cherry Tree BidCo) will acquire Accelerant Holdings for $20.25 per share in cash, a ~47% premium to the implied pre-announcement price. The deal is supported by ACP shareholders (Altamont Capital Partners affiliates) holding ~82% of voting rights, who have agreed to vote in favor. The transaction is subject to shareholder approval, HSR, foreign antitrust, and insurance regulatory clearances, with a go-shop period through September 22, 2026.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Thoma Bravo to acquire ARX for $20.25/share in cash, plus a ticking amount of $0.00333/day after conditions satisfied
- ACP shareholders (Altamont Capital Partners) holding ~82% of voting rights have agreed to vote in favor via voting and support agreement
- Go-shop period runs until September 22, 2026; company may solicit alternative proposals from pre-qualified excluded parties
- Company termination fee: $56.9M (superior proposal with excluded party) or $136.5M (other cases); Parent termination fee: $295.8M
- Conditions include shareholder approval (two-thirds of votes cast), HSR, foreign antitrust, and insurance regulatory approvals
- Financing from Thoma Bravo equity commitment letter; no financing condition for Parent
- Initial termination date August 13, 2027, with automatic extension to November 13, 2027 if conditions near satisfaction
Financial Impact
All-cash consideration of $20.25 per share values the equity at approximately $4.4 billion based on 217.2 million shares outstanding as of August 11, 2026
Risk Factors
- Regulatory delays or failure to obtain insurance regulatory approvals or antitrust clearance
- Go-shop period could yield a superior proposal, though unlikely given 82% committed support
- Shareholder dissent rights capped at 15% of outstanding shares; if exceeded, Parent may walk
- Material adverse effect clause could allow Parent to terminate if business deteriorates significantly
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 5 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| DEFA14A Filing (ARX) — Batch item 1 | 0001193125-26-349978 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-349978-index-headers.html | 0001193125-26-349973 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-349978-index.html | 0001193125-26-349966 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-349978.txt | 0001193125-26-349978 |
| 8-K Filing (ARX) — Batch item 5 | 0001193125-26-349973 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 14, 2026 7w ago | DEFA14A / 8-K | $19.58 $19.83 | ▲ +1.28% | ▲ +3.27% | $19.73 (+0.77%) |
Aug 14, 2026 7w ago | Insider Cluster | $19.58 $19.83 | ▼ −1.28% | ▼ −3.27% | $19.73 (−0.77%) |
Aug 13, 2026 7w ago | DEFA14A | $19.51 $19.84 | ▲ +1.69% | ▲ +3.44% | $19.73 (+1.13%) |
Aug 13, 2026 7w ago | 8-K | $19.51 $19.84 | ▲ +1.69% | ▲ +3.44% | $19.73 (+1.13%) |
Aug 12, 2026 7w ago | Insider Cluster | $13.61 $19.84 | ▲ +45.78% | ▲ +47.67% | $19.73 (+44.97%) |
Aug 5, 2026 8w ago | Insider Cluster | $12.26 $19.70 | ▼ −60.69% | ▼ −61.29% | $19.73 (−60.93%) |
Jul 29, 2026 9w ago | Insider Cluster | $11.20 $19.69 | ▲ +75.80% | ▲ +71.84% | $19.73 (+76.16%) |
Jul 29, 2026 9w ago | Insider Cluster | $12.40 $19.67 | ▲ +58.63% | ▲ +53.61% | $19.73 (+59.11%) |
Jul 28, 2026 9w ago | Insider Cluster | $14.72 $19.67 | ▼ −33.63% | ▼ −30.25% | $19.73 (−34.04%) |
Jul 24, 2026 10w ago | 144 | $14.23 $19.59 | ▼ −37.67% | ▼ −34.04% | $19.73 (−38.65%) |
US Market Status
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