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ANALYST-UPGRADE

ANNX

Annexon, Inc.
BEARISH
Impact 4/10
Processed5mo ago SECanalyst-ANNX-goldmans-20260512
Goldman Sachs initiates coverage on ANNX at Neutral
Actionable Insight ▼ Bearish

Goldman's cautious PT and Neutral rating stand out against a heavily bullish consensus just ahead of earnings. Expect heightened volatility into the May 18 report; the divergence between Goldman's view and institutional buying/insider buys creates a potential squeeze setup if earnings surprise positively, but the high short interest also raises downside risk if the Neutral call proves prescient.

DirectionBearish
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d
ANNX ▲ +2.94% at T+60d
SHORT call ✗ call lost -2.94% · α vs SPY +1.44% · entry $5.44 → $5.60
Entry = T+0 close
May 12, 2026
via day close
T+1d
+0.18%
call -0.18% · α +0.39%
$5.45
settled 6mo ago
T+5d
-8.82%
call +8.82% · α +8.90%
$4.96
settled 5mo ago
T+20d
-13.24%
call +13.24% · α +11.51%
$4.72
settled 5mo ago
T+60d
+2.94%
call -2.94% · α +1.44%
$5.60
settled 3mo ago

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of ANNX on May 12, 2026, with a Neutral rating and a $7 price target, well below the consensus mean of $13.71 and the prior low of $8. The firm has a 54% accuracy rate on 2,921 rated calls with a +5.6% average return, placing it around average among covering firms. The broader consensus is overwhelmingly bullish — 15 of 16 analysts rate ANNX a Buy or Strong Buy, with only Goldman at Neutral. Price targets range from $8 to $27, implying 140% upside to the mean from the current $5.70, while Goldman's target offers just 23% upside. In the past 30 days, EPS revisions have been mixed — 2 up and 2 down for the current fiscal year — though the estimate has ticked higher from -$1.19 to -$1.16. Insider activity shows both buying (Carson William H. bought ~$95K in March/April) and selling (three executives sold ~$94K in March). Short interest is elevated at 56.2% of float, and institutional flows are mixed with Vanguard and Morgan Stanley adding while FMR trimmed. With earnings due May 18, the Goldman initiation is a significant contrarian signal from a high-volume firm just ahead of a catalyst.

Impact Score

Base Score
2/7
LLM Adjustment
+2
Final Score
4/10

Consensus & Targets

Buy / Strong Buy
15 (94%)
Hold
1
Sell / Strong Sell
0
Total Analysts
7
Mean PT
$13.71
Median PT
$11.00
High PT
$27.00
Low PT
$8.00
Current Price
$5.70
Implied Upside
+140.6%

The consensus consists of 16 analysts covering ANNX: 4 Strong Buy, 11 Buy, 1 Hold. That translates to 93.75% Buy-equivalent ratings. Goldman's Neutral is the sole non-bullish call, making it a clear outlier.

The mean price target is $13.71, median $11, high $27, low $8. At $5.70, the implied upside to the mean is 140%. Goldman's $7 target is below the previous low of $8, offering only 22.8% upside and representing the most bearish estimate on the street.

Recent Analyst Activity

DateFirmActionRatingPrice Target
2026-05-12Goldman SachsinitiateNeutral$7.00
2026-03-20Chardan CapitalmaintainBuy—
2025-12-23Chardan CapitalinitiateBuy$16.00
2025-12-02Clear StreetinitiateBuy$17.00
2025-11-19Wells FargomaintainOverweight$27.00
2025-08-15HC Wainwright & Co.reiterateBuy$14.00
2025-05-14HC Wainwright & Co.maintainBuy$14.00
2025-05-13NeedhammaintainBuy$11.00
2025-03-04NeedhamreiterateBuy$16.00
2024-12-17HC Wainwright & Co.reiterateBuy$30.00

In the past 30 days, there has been 1 analyst action: Goldman's initiation. No downgrades or upgrades. EPS estimates for the current fiscal year show 2 upward and 2 downward revisions in the past 30 days, with the average EPS improving slightly from -$1.19 to -$1.16. Revisions are balanced, implying no clear directional bias from the sell-side.

Firm Track Record — Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs accuracy: 54% on 2921 calls | avg return: 5.6%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 4 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

FirmAccuracyCallsAvg Returnvs Average
HC Wainwright & Co.50%4/8-7.6%below average
Wells Fargo50%2/4-0.9%below average
Needham38%3/8-3.2%below average
Cantor Fitzgerald20%1/5-14.6%below average

Goldman Sachs has a 54% accuracy rate on 2,921 calls with an average return of +5.6%. Among firms covering ANNX, HC Wainwright (50% on 8 calls) and Wells Fargo (50% on 4 calls) are the best performers, while Cantor Fitzgerald (20% on 5 calls) is the worst. Goldman's moderate accuracy and large sample lend weight but not exceptional precision.

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: May 18, 2026

PeriodEPS Est.EPS RangeRevenueRevisions (7d)
0y$-1.16$-1.23 — $-1.05$0.00↑2 ↓0
0q$-0.30$-0.34 — $-0.26$0.00↑0 ↓0
+1q$-0.30$-0.33 — $-0.25$0.00↑0 ↓0
+1y$-0.96$-1.13 — $-0.88$43.8M↑1 ↓0

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider Trades (90d)
2 buys / 3 sells
Institutional
VANGUARD GROUP INC — add (32.9%)
Institutional
WELLS FARGO & COMPANY/MN — add (40.1%)
Institutional
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC — add (33.8%)
Short Interest
Short: 408,824 | Exempt: 4,000 | TRF Vol: 726,869 | Short Ratio: 56.2% | Off-exchange volume (dark pool + OTC)

Insider activity is mixed: Carson William H. bought $94,960 in two transactions (March/April), while three executives sold $93,769 in early March. Institutional changes show Vanguard (+32.9%), Wells Fargo (+40.1%), and Morgan Stanley (+263.9%) adding, but FMR trimming (-29.4%). Short interest is high at 56.2% of float, indicating significant bearish positioning. The Goldman initiation (cautious) converges with the elevated short interest and the recent insider selling, but diverges from the insider buying and the Vanguard/Morgan Stanley accumulation.

Investment Themes

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

13 reports for ANNX
Performance horizon
43% Hit rate @ T+5 3 of 7 directional calls Went positive at some point 4 of 7 best @ T+20▲ +26.38%Jun 11, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for ANNX — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Aug 13, 2026
10w ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 4/10
$5.26 $5.18▼ −1.52%▲ +0.44%$3.76 (−28.52%)
Aug 12, 2026
10w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$5.33 $5.50▲ +3.19%▲ +3.63%$3.76 (−29.46%)
Aug 12, 2026
10w ago
Press Release
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$5.33 $5.50▲ +3.19%▲ +3.63%$3.76 (−29.46%)
Aug 10, 2026
11w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$5.34 $5.28▼ −1.12%▼ −0.72%$3.76 (−29.59%)
Aug 7, 2026
11w ago
Institutional Cluster
MIXED ★ 4/10
$5.41 $5.29▼ −2.22%▼ −2.62%$3.76 (−30.50%)
Aug 6, 2026
11w ago
Press Release
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$5.60 $5.26▼ −6.07%▼ −7.28%$3.76 (−32.86%)
Jul 21, 2026
14w ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 4/10
$5.39 $5.13▼ −4.82%▼ −3.60%$3.76 (−30.24%)
Jul 14, 2026
15w ago
144
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$5.55 $5.57▲ +0.36%▲ +1.66%$3.76 (−32.25%)
Jun 11, 2026
19w ago
Institutional Cluster
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$4.70 $4.94▲ +5.11%▲ +4.67%$3.76 (−20.00%)
May 12, 2026
24w ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BEARISH ★ 4/10
$5.44 $4.96▲ +8.82%▲ +8.90%$3.76 (+30.88%)
Showing 10 of 13

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens Wed (17h 21m)

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Report published May 12, 2026