The raised full-year guidance and broad-based product growth (17 products with double-digit sales growth) signal strong operational momentum. Monitor the ongoing FDA process for TAVNEOS (withdrawal proposal) and biosimilar erosion of Prolia/XGEVA, which could pressure future quarters. The MariTide Phase 3 program continues to advance with multiple studies enrolling or completed.
Drugs in focus
AMGN drug pipeline →MariTide
● neutral Named in this 8-K- Impact
- Phase
- Phase 3
- Time to market
- Phase 3 topline data expected early 2027 (primary completion January 21, 2027). If successful, NDA submission would follow in 2027-2028, with potential FDA approval in 2028-2030 based on analyst estimates.
- Next catalyst
- None dated
What to watchThe next hard catalyst is the Phase 3 MARITIME-1/2 topline readout, expected shortly after the estimated primary completion date of January 21, 2027. Positive data (confirming ~20% weight loss with monthly dosing and good tolerability) could drive significant upside as it validates Amgen's differentiated GIP-antagonist approach and monthly dosing advantage. Negative data (efficacy below competitors or tolerability issues) would be a major setback since Amgen has narrowed its obesity pipeline to MariTide alone. The stock already trades near 52-week highs with elevated options implied volatility (IV rank 76), suggesting the market is pricing in this binary event.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Amgen reported Q3 2026 total revenue of $10.4B (+8% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS of $6.45 (+14% YoY), both above consensus estimates of $10.06B and $5.78. The company raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $38.9B-$39.7B (from $37.1B-$38.5B) and non-GAAP EPS guidance to $22.90-$23.70 (from $21.70-$23.10). Strong growth was driven by Repatha (+37%), EVENITY (+39%), UPLIZNA (+191%), TEZSPIRE (+43%), and IMDELLTRA (+128%), partially offset by declines in Prolia (-45%) and XGEVA (-47%) due to biosimilar competition.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q3 2026 total revenue $10.365B, up 8% YoY from $9.557B
- Q3 2026 GAAP diluted EPS $7.08, up 19% from $5.93
- Q3 2026 non-GAAP diluted EPS $6.45, up 14% from $5.64
- Full-year 2026 revenue guidance raised to $38.9B-$39.7B from $37.1B-$38.5B
- Full-year 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance raised to $22.90-$23.70 from $21.70-$23.10
- Repatha sales +37% YoY to $1,085M; EVENITY +39% to $751M; UPLIZNA +191% to $451M
- Prolia sales -45% YoY to $632M; XGEVA -47% to $288M due to biosimilar competition
- GAAP operating margin improved 9.9pp to 37.5%; non-GAAP operating margin +0.2pp to 47.3%
- Free cash flow $3.654B in Q3 2026 vs $4.248B in Q3 2025
- Cash and cash equivalents $13.19B; debt outstanding $54.0B as of Sep 30, 2026
Financial Impact
Revenue beat consensus by ~$305M (3.0%); non-GAAP EPS beat consensus by $0.67 (11.6%)
Risk Factors
- FDA proposal to withdraw TAVNEOS approval remains unresolved; company requested a hearing in June 2026
- Prolia (-45%) and XGEVA (-47%) facing accelerated erosion from biosimilar competition globally
- Subcutaneous blinatumomab studies remain on partial clinical hold by FDA
- No share repurchases in Q3 2026; $3.0B authorization remains unused
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0000318154-26-000153 |
| Document: amgn-20261103.htm | 0000318154-26-000153 |
| Document: 0000318154-26-000153-index-headers.html | 0000318154-26-000153 |
| Document: 0000318154-26-000153-index.html | 0000318154-26-000153 |
| Document: 0000318154-26-000153.txt | 0000318154-26-000153 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0000318154-26-000153 |
Track record
24 reports on AMGN
6 of 8 bullish or bearish reports moved the stock their way by T+1. Best: +25.11% at T+60 after the Jun 3, 2026 report. 6 of 8 went positive at some point.
Filters
- Nov 3, 20267d ago 8-K Bullish 5/10 Viewing No price data
- Nov 3, 20267d ago Press Release Bullish 5/10 Entry $478.48 to $460.28 Now $465.23 −2.77% ▼ −3.80% +0.61% vs SPY
- Oct 27, 202613d ago 3 Neutral 2/10 Entry $451.83 to $460.73 Now $465.23 +2.97% ▲ +1.97% +2.35% vs SPY
- Oct 27, 202614d ago Press Release Neutral 2/10 Entry $451.83 to $460.73 Now $465.23 +2.97% ▲ +1.97% +2.35% vs SPY
- Oct 27, 202614d ago Institutional Cluster Mixed 3/10 Entry $447.95 to $451.83 Now $465.23 +3.86% ▲ +0.87% +0.52% vs SPY
- Oct 26, 202615d ago 8-K Neutral 2/10 Entry $447.95 to $451.83 Now $465.23 +3.86% ▲ +0.87% +0.52% vs SPY
- Oct 20, 202621d ago Court Ruling Neutral 1/10 Entry $438.34 to $447.28 Now $465.23 +6.13% ▲ +2.04% +3.22% vs SPY
- Oct 9, 20264w ago Court Ruling Bearish 6/10 Entry $417.57 to $412.84 Now $465.23 −11.41% ▲ +1.13% +1.12% vs SPY
- Sep 10, 20268w ago ANALYST-DOWNGRADE Bearish 4/10 Entry $382.47 to $377.35 Now $465.23 −21.64% ▲ +1.34% +2.19% vs SPY
- Sep 8, 20269w ago ANALYST-DOWNGRADE Bearish 4/10 Entry $393.17 to $391.27 Now $465.23 −18.33% ▲ +0.48% +0.02% vs SPY
US Market Status
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