Price Chart

Executive Summary

Bernstein issued a double upgrade on May 6, 2026, moving the stock from Market Perform to Outperform and raising its price target from $265 to $525 — a 98% increase in target. This call is deeply contrarian: the stock already trades at $355, well above the consensus mean target of $312. The firm has a perfect 100% accuracy rate on its 2 prior calls on this name, though the sample is tiny. Consensus is overwhelmingly bullish at 76% Buy (45 of 59 analysts), but Bernstein's new target eclipses the prior high of $455. Momentum is supportive — 4 upgrades vs 2 downgrades in the past 30 days — and EPS estimates have been revised up 10 times vs 4 down for the current quarter and 14 vs 2 for next fiscal year. Insider selling is significant, with the CFO and another executive unloading a combined ~$24M over the past month, while Norges Bank established a $4.9B new position. Short interest sits at a high 58.3% of float. The next earnings report is due August 3, roughly 90 days out. This double upgrade from a high-accuracy firm carries weight but must be weighed against heavy insider exits and elevated short interest.

Impact Score

Consensus & Targets

Of 59 analysts covering the stock, 15 rate it Strong Buy, 30 Buy, 13 Hold, 0 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell — an aggregate 76% Buy, 22% Hold, and 2% Sell. The consensus is clearly bullish, but Bernstein's new Outperform rating is in line with the majority view, though its target price is far above consensus.

The consensus mean price target is $312.28, median $305, high $455, low $225. The stock closed at $355.26, already 14% above the mean and 16% above the median. Bernstein's $525 target is 65% above the mean, 72% above the median, and 15% above the prior firm high of $455, implying 48% upside from current levels.

Recent Analyst Activity

Over the past 30 days, there have been 4 upgrades and 2 downgrades. EPS estimates are rising: current quarter estimates have been revised up 3 times vs 0 down in the last 7 days, and 10 up vs 4 down over 30 days. For next fiscal year, revisions are 14 up vs 2 down. The revision trend is firmly positive across all timeframes.

Firm Track Record — Bernstein

Bernstein accuracy: 51% on 497 calls | avg return: 3.3%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

Bernstein has a perfect 100% accuracy rate on this stock (2 correct calls out of 2) with an average return of +65.5% per call — the best among covering firms. Other top performers include Raymond James (100% on 2 calls) and Melius Research (100% on 3). At the bottom, Benchmark has only 44% accuracy on 9 calls, and Evercore ISI also at 44% on 9 calls. Bernstein's record, though based on a very small sample, commands attention.

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Aug 3, 2026

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider trading shows heavy selling: CFO Mark Papermaster sold $10.9M on Apr 24, $7.5M on Apr 16, and other sells totaling over $1M, while EVP Lisa Su sold $3.2M on Mar 12. Congressional trades are mixed — two Democrat sells and one buy. Institutional moves are divergent: Norges Bank initiated a massive $4.9B new position and FMR added 63% ($3.1B), but Bank of America trimmed 38% and Wells Fargo trimmed 45%. Short interest is high at 58.3% of float (short ratio 58.3%). The bullish analyst signal converges with institutional buying but diverges sharply from insider selling and short interest.

Investment Themes

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

US Market Status