With guidance withdrawn and the acquisition pending, the stock's price is anchored to the $10.00 deal price. Monitor stockholder vote and antitrust clearance timelines; any delay or regulatory condition could create arbitrage spreads. The earnings beat is secondary to deal execution risk.
How the stock moved after the report
⚠ Clustered NEUTRAL VIEWSTOCK ABOVE ENTRY AT T+1- T+0 · Nov 3 $9.85entry
- T+1 · 12h ago +0.51%α −1.14% · $9.90
- T+5 · in 5d Pending
- T+20 · in 27d Pending
- T+60 · in 3mo Pending
Price Chart
How similar events traded
Executive Summary
ADT reported Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.24, beating the $0.23 consensus, on revenue of $1.349B (4% YoY growth, in line with the $1.32B estimate). The company withdrew guidance due to the pending $10.00/share acquisition by Thrive Holdings, which dominates the stock's near-term trajectory.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Adjusted EPS $0.24 vs consensus $0.23 (beat of 4.3%)
- Total revenue $1.349B, up 4% YoY, in line with $1.32B consensus
- GAAP diluted EPS $0.20, up 18% YoY from $0.17
- Adjusted EBITDA $665M, down 2% YoY; margin 49% vs 52% a year ago
- Net cash from operations $440M, down $40M YoY
- Adjusted Free Cash Flow (incl. swaps) $217M, up $8M YoY
- RMR $360M, down $1M YoY; gross revenue attrition 13.1% vs 13.0%
- Company withdrew guidance due to pending $10.00/share acquisition by Thrive Holdings
- Year-to-date returned $748M to shareholders via buybacks and dividends
- Transaction expected to close in Q1 2027, subject to stockholder and antitrust approvals
Financial Impact
Adjusted EPS beat consensus by $0.01 (4.3%); revenue in line; guidance withdrawn due to pending acquisition at $10.00/share, representing ~$7.6B equity value
Segment Breakdown
| Segment | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| Monitoring and related services | $1.1B | -1.3% |
| Security installation, product, and other | $265.0M | +32.5% |
Risk Factors
- Transaction may not close due to antitrust denial or stockholder vote failure
- 30-day go-shop period could yield a competing bid, potentially delaying or terminating the deal
- Withdrawn guidance leaves no operational benchmark for the standalone business
- Monitoring and related services revenue declined 1% YoY, and gross revenue attrition ticked up 10 bps
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 press release from GlobeNewswire.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| PRESS-RELEASE Data (Synthetic) | press-3394022 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nov 3, 2026 1d ago | DEFA14A | $9.85 | awaiting T+5 | awaiting T+5 | $9.90 (+0.51%) |
Nov 3, 2026 1d ago | 8-K | No price | awaiting T+5 | awaiting T+5 | No price |
Nov 3, 2026 1d ago | Press Release | $9.85 | awaiting T+5 | awaiting T+5 | $9.90 (+0.51%) |
Oct 30, 2026 5d ago | SC 13G/A | $9.86 | awaiting T+5 | awaiting T+5 | $9.90 (+0.41%) |
Oct 29, 2026 6d ago | DEFA14A | $9.86 | awaiting T+5 | awaiting T+5 | $9.90 (+0.41%) |
Oct 29, 2026 6d ago | DEFA14A | $9.86 | awaiting T+5 | awaiting T+5 | $9.90 (+0.41%) |
Oct 29, 2026 6d ago | DEFA14A | $9.86 | awaiting T+5 | awaiting T+5 | $9.90 (+0.41%) |
Oct 29, 2026 6d ago | DEFA14A | $9.86 | awaiting T+5 | awaiting T+5 | $9.90 (+0.41%) |
Oct 29, 2026 6d ago | DEFA14A | $9.86 | awaiting T+5 | awaiting T+5 | $9.90 (+0.41%) |
Oct 29, 2026 6d ago | DEFA14A | $9.86 | awaiting T+5 | awaiting T+5 | $9.90 (+0.41%) |
US Market Status
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