The raised AFC guidance (+30% vs prior +20%) and massive buyback ($478M in Q2) signal management's confidence in cash generation, but the 8% GAAP income decline and 30bps attrition increase temper the bullish case. Watch for Q3 subscriber trends and whether the Apollo exit overhang is fully absorbed. The $906M remaining buyback authorization provides a floor.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
ADT reported Q2 2026 revenue of $1.312B (up 2% YoY, in line with $1.29B consensus) and adjusted EPS of $0.23 (beat $0.22 consensus by 4.5%). GAAP income from continuing operations declined 8% YoY to $155M, and adjusted EBITDA slipped to $671M from $674M. The company raised its full-year 2026 outlook, now projecting Adjusted Free Cash Flow growth of ~30% (from ~20% previously), revenue growth of ~2%, and Adjusted EPS growth of ~2%. Strong cash generation ($666M operating cash flow, up 18%) supported $478M in share repurchases during the quarter, but attrition ticked up 30bps to 13.1% and M&S revenue declined 1% YoY.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Total revenue $1.312B, up 2% YoY (consensus $1.29B)
- Adjusted EPS $0.23, flat YoY, beat consensus $0.22 by 4.5%
- GAAP income from continuing operations $155M, down 8% YoY
- Adjusted EBITDA $671M, down from $674M YoY
- Operating cash flow $666M, up 18% YoY
- Adjusted Free Cash Flow (incl. swaps) $406M, up 48% YoY
- Raised FY2026 outlook: AFC growth ~30% (from ~20%), revenue growth ~2%, Adj. EPS growth ~2%
- Repurchased 68M shares for $478M in Q2; $906M remaining on buyback authorization
- Gross customer revenue attrition 13.1%, up 30bps YoY
- RMR $360M, down 1% YoY
- Apollo exited its stake via secondary offering of 102M shares
- Dividend declared $0.055/share, payable Oct 1
Financial Impact
Revenue beat consensus by ~$22M (1.7%), Adj. EPS beat by $0.01 (4.5%). Raised AFC guidance implies ~$100M incremental cash flow vs prior outlook.
Risk Factors
- Gross customer revenue attrition increased 30bps to 13.1%, indicating competitive pressure
- M&S revenue declined 1% YoY, core recurring revenue under pressure
- GAAP income from continuing operations down 8% YoY despite revenue growth
- Apollo fully exited its stake, removing a large holder and potentially creating selling pressure
- SG&A expenses grew 8% YoY, outpacing revenue growth
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 press release from GlobeNewswire.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| PRESS-RELEASE Data (Synthetic) | press-3335886 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 23, 2026 3d ago | Institutional Cluster | $6.90 $6.88 | ▼ −0.29% | ▼ −1.00% | $6.88 (−0.29%) |
Oct 20, 2026 6d ago | Press Release | $6.79 $6.80 | ▲ +0.15% | ▼ −0.38% | $6.88 (+1.33%) |
Oct 8, 2026 18d ago | SC 13G/A | $6.50 $6.43 | ▼ −1.08% | ▼ −1.68% | $6.88 (+5.85%) |
Jul 30, 2026 12w ago | 8-K | $7.51 $7.64 | ▲ +1.73% | ▲ +1.03% | $6.88 (−8.39%) |
Jul 30, 2026 12w ago | Press Release | $7.51 $7.64 | ▲ +1.73% | ▲ +1.03% | $6.88 (−8.39%) |
Jul 21, 2026 13w ago | Institutional Cluster | $6.89 $6.90 | ▼ −0.15% | ▼ −0.26% | $6.88 (+0.15%) |
Jul 16, 2026 14w ago | Press Release | $7.06 $7.00 | ▼ −0.85% | ▲ +0.14% | $6.88 (−2.55%) |
May 28, 2026 21w ago | 8-K | $6.71 $6.74 | ▲ +0.45% | ▲ +0.19% | $6.88 (+2.53%) |
May 18, 2026 23w ago | Insider Cluster | $6.87 $6.98 | ▲ +1.60% | ▲ +0.56% | $6.88 (+0.15%) |
May 8, 2026 24w ago | DEFA14A | $6.79 $6.79 | · 0.00% | ▲ +0.14% | $6.88 (+1.33%) |
US Market Status
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