The cluster is directionally bullish but small in scale relative to ADP's $103B market cap. With no insider buying and a 45-day reporting lag, the signal is weak. Monitor for any Q3 earnings pre-announcement or guidance change that could validate the thesis. The historical calibration suggests limited near-term alpha — avoid chasing this cluster.
Executive Summary
Three active asset managers added to ADP positions in Q2 2026, led by Matrix more than quadrupling its stake (+$9.8M) and Fort Washington adding $16.7M, while Assenagon trimmed $9.9M. The cluster is modestly bullish with $28.2M net buying, but the 45-day reporting lag and lack of insider corroboration (confluence score 11/100) weaken conviction. The historical calibration shows scores of 6-7 have sub-50% win rates in this segment, suggesting limited near-term alpha from this cluster alone.
Key Financial Metrics
Institutional Positions
Net institutional flow: $28.2M
▲ Buyers (3)
| Institution | Action | Change | Position Value | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fort Washington Investment Advisors | ADD | +27% | $58.7M | $16.7M |
| Envestnet Portfolio Solutions | ADD | +63.8% | $3.8M | $1.7M |
| Matrix | DOUBLED | +312% | $12.5M | $9.8M |
▼ Sellers (1)
| Institution | Action | Change | Prev Value | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assenagon Asset Management | TRIM | -26.1% | $53.5M | -$9.9M |
Key Facts
- 3 institutional buyers added $28.2M net in Q2 2026
- Matrix (active value) doubled its position, adding $9.8M
- Fort Washington added $16.7M, the largest dollar increase
- Assenagon trimmed $9.9M, the only seller
- No open-market insider buying corroborates the cluster
- Historical calibration: scores 6-7 in this segment have <50% win rates at T+20
Financial Impact
3 institutions accumulated $75.0M in ADP positions, net adding $28.2M; 1 seller reduced holdings by $9.9M
Risk Factors
- 45-day 13F reporting lag means positions may have been unwound
- No insider buying to corroborate the institutional thesis
- Historical calibration shows sub-50% win rates for similar cluster scores in this segment
- Single seller (Assenagon) trimming $9.9M adds modest caution
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 institutional 13F filing from SEC EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| INST-CLUSTER Data (Synthetic) | inst-cluster-ADP-2026-Q2 |
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 4, 2026 28d ago | Insider Cluster | $277.62 $276.63 | ▼ −0.36% | ▲ +0.85% | — |
Sep 4, 2026 28d ago | Insider Cluster | $277.62 $276.63 | ▼ −0.36% | ▲ +0.85% | — |
Sep 3, 2026 29d ago | Insider Cluster | $283.53 $268.26 | ▼ −5.39% | ▼ −4.24% | — |
Aug 24, 2026 5w ago | Insider Cluster | $283.01 $286.16 | ▲ +1.11% | ▲ +0.64% | — |
Jul 29, 2026 9w ago | 8-K | $273.37 $269.90 | ▼ −1.27% | ▼ −6.80% | — |
Jul 20, 2026 10w ago | Institutional Cluster | $246.22 $254.98 | ▲ +3.56% | ▲ +4.79% | — |
Jun 21, 2026 14w ago | Institutional Cluster | $214.60 $223.55 | ▲ +4.17% | ▲ +6.24% | — |
Mar 30, 2026 26w ago | Court Ruling | $205.41 $203.47 | ▼ −0.94% | ▼ −5.24% | — |
Mar 10, 2026 29w ago | Court Ruling | $217.22 $209.63 | ▼ −3.49% | ▼ −2.59% | — |
US Market Status
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