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8-K ·Filed Sep 23, 2026

ADGM

Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc.
BEARISH
Impact 7/10
Horizonweeks Processed1mo ago SEC0001104659-26-109821
8-K material event: Items 2.05
Actionable Insight ▼ Bearish

The strategic review and deep workforce cut indicate the company is running out of cash before FDA approval on vCLAS. The lowered conversion price on the 13% notes will almost certainly trigger conversion, diluting common equity severely. Watch for a distressed sale or reverse merger announcement in the coming weeks.

DirectionBearish
Confidencehigh
Horizonweeks
Latest settled — T+20d
ADGM ▼ -49.43% at T+20d
SHORT call ✓ call won +49.43% · α vs SPY +50.12% · entry $0.2280 → $0.1153
Next anchor: T+60d in 7w
Latest observation: T+22 +43.17% FF3 residual α
Entry = T+0 close
Sep 23, 2026
via day close
T+1d
-7.89%
call +7.89% · α +7.81%
$0.2100
settled 5w ago
T+5d
-32.89%
call +32.89% · α +32.22%
$0.1530
settled 27d ago
T+20d
-49.43%
call +49.43% · α +50.12%
$0.1153
settled 6d ago
T+60d
Pending
in 7w

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Adagio Medical is laying off 58% of its workforce (25 of 43 employees) and initiating a formal strategic alternatives review, including a potential sale or merger. The company also lowered the conversion price on its 13% Senior Secured Convertible Notes to 85% of the 5-day VWAP through October 31, 2026, which will likely trigger massive dilution if noteholders convert. With only ~$7.7M in cash as of June 30, 2026, and a pending PMA for its vCLAS system, the restructuring signals a cash crunch and a high probability of a distressed sale or equity wipeout.

Key Facts

  • Workforce reduction of 25 out of 43 full-time employees (58% cut), effective September 23, 2026
  • Estimated $1.3 million in cash severance and related costs
  • Board initiated formal process to explore strategic alternatives including acquisition, merger, or business combination
  • Conversion price on 13% Senior Secured Convertible Notes lowered to 85% of the lowest 5-day VWAP through October 31, 2026
  • Preliminary unaudited cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities of approximately $7.7 million as of June 30, 2026
  • PMA application for vCLAS Ventricular Ablation System submitted to FDA in May 2026

Financial Impact

$1.3 million in cash restructuring costs; ~$7.7M cash runway being consumed; conversion price reset to 85% of VWAP will likely trigger heavy dilution for noteholders

cashdilutionworkforcedebt

Risk Factors

  • Massive dilution from note conversion at 85% of VWAP through October 31, 2026
  • Cash runway of ~$7.7M likely insufficient to fund operations through FDA decision without a transaction
  • Potential for no viable strategic alternative, leading to bankruptcy or liquidation
  • PMA approval for vCLAS is binary and uncertain; failure would eliminate the primary asset value

Investment Themes

Healthcare & Medical Devices

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 5 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
8-K Filing (Primary)0001104659-26-109821
Document: adgm-20260923xex99.htm0001104659-26-109821
Document: 0001104659-26-109821-index-headers.html0001104659-26-109821
Document: 0001104659-26-109821-index.html0001104659-26-109821
Document: 0001104659-26-109821.txt0001104659-26-109821
10 reports for ADGM
Performance horizon
43% Hit rate @ T+5 3 of 7 directional calls Went positive at some point 4 of 7 best @ T+60▲ +47.12%Apr 6, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for ADGM — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 13, 2026
14d ago
DEF 14A
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$0.1253 $0.1208▼ −3.59%▼ −2.44%$0.1011 (−19.31%)
Oct 1, 2026
25d ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$0.1531 $0.1300▲ +15.09%▲ +16.25%$0.1011 (+33.96%)
Sep 23, 2026
4w ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$0.2280 $0.1530▲ +32.89%▲ +32.22%$0.1011 (+55.66%)
Aug 11, 2026
11w ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$0.7190 $0.6460▲ +10.15%▲ +9.75%$0.1011 (+85.94%)
Jul 13, 2026
15w ago
10-K/A
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$0.5710 $0.5300▼ −7.18%▼ −6.40%$0.1011 (−82.29%)
May 21, 2026
22w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$0.8410 $0.7699▼ −8.45%▼ −10.13%$0.1011 (−87.98%)
May 12, 2026
24w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$0.9230 $0.8830▼ −4.33%▼ −4.41%$0.1011 (−89.05%)
Apr 27, 2026
26w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 8/10
$1.15 $0.9410▼ −18.17%▼ −18.57%$0.1011 (−91.21%)
Apr 8, 2026
28w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$1.41 $1.43▲ +1.42%▼ −2.10%$0.1011 (−92.83%)
Apr 6, 2026
29w ago
EFFECT
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$1.25 $1.33▼ −6.40%▼ −2.27%$0.1011 (+91.91%)
Showing 10 of 10

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Report published Sep 23, 2026