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8-K ·Filed Oct 1, 2026

ADGM

Adagio Medical Holdings, Inc.
BEARISH
Impact 7/10
Horizonweeks Processed25d 19h ago SEC0001104659-26-112887
8-K context-dependent: Items 3.02
Actionable Insight ▼ Bearish

The conversion at deeply discounted prices signals that noteholders are rushing to exit before a potential restructuring or bankruptcy. The strategic alternatives review (announced Sep 23) combined with this dilutive conversion suggests equity holders face severe dilution or wipeout. Watch for further conversions of the remaining Notes and any announcement of a sale, merger, or Chapter 11 filing.

DirectionBearish
Confidencehigh
Horizonweeks
Latest settled — T+5d
ADGM ▼ -15.09% at T+5d
SHORT call ✓ call won +15.09% · α vs SPY +16.25% · entry $0.1531 → $0.1300
Next anchor: T+20d tomorrow
Latest observation: T+15 +1.55% FF3 residual α
Entry = T+0 close
Oct 1, 2026
via day close
T+1d
-7.84%
call +7.84% · α +8.51%
$0.1411
settled 25d ago
T+5d
-15.09%
call +15.09% · α +16.25%
$0.1300
settled 19d ago
T+20d
Pending
tomorrow
T+60d
Pending
in 2mo

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

A holder of Adagio Medical's 13% Senior Secured Convertible Notes converted $776,111 of principal into 4,978,869 common shares at deeply discounted prices ($0.1265-$0.1618 per share) under an Alternate Conversion Election. This follows the company's September 23 restructuring announcement, which included a 58% workforce reduction and a strategic alternatives review, signaling acute financial distress.

Key Facts

  • A noteholder converted $776,111 of 13% Senior Secured Convertible Notes into 4,978,869 common shares between Sep 25 and Oct 1, 2026.
  • Conversion prices ranged from $0.1265 to $0.1618 per share, representing a massive discount to any recent trading level.
  • The conversion was executed under an Alternate Conversion Election announced on Sep 23, 2026, as part of a broader strategic alternatives process.
  • On Sep 23, the company also cut 25 of 43 employees (58% workforce reduction) and estimated $1.3M in severance costs.
  • No additional cash was received by the company from this conversion — it was a debt-to-equity swap under Section 3(a)(9).
  • The 4,978,869 shares issued represent massive dilution relative to the company's pre-conversion share count (not stated in filing).

Financial Impact

Issuance of 4,978,869 shares at conversion prices of $0.1265-$0.1618 per share, representing a debt-to-equity conversion of $776,111 in principal. No cash proceeds to the company. Dilution is substantial relative to the existing float.

dilutionshare countdebt reduction

Risk Factors

  • Further conversions of the remaining 13% Senior Secured Convertible Notes at similarly distressed prices will continue to dilute existing shareholders.
  • The strategic alternatives process could result in a sale at a price below current levels, a reverse stock split to maintain Nasdaq listing, or a bankruptcy filing.
  • The company's cash runway is extremely limited after the workforce reduction and with no new capital from this conversion.
  • Nasdaq delisting risk is elevated given the low stock price and the company's deteriorating financial position.

Investment Themes

Healthcare & Medical Devices

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 4 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
8-K Filing (Primary)0001104659-26-112887
Document: 0001104659-26-112887-index-headers.html0001104659-26-112887
Document: 0001104659-26-112887-index.html0001104659-26-112887
Document: 0001104659-26-112887.txt0001104659-26-112887
10 reports for ADGM
Performance horizon
43% Hit rate @ T+5 3 of 7 directional calls Went positive at some point 4 of 7 best @ T+20▲ +49.43%Sep 23, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for ADGM — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 13, 2026
14d ago
DEF 14A
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$0.1253 $0.1208▼ −3.59%▼ −2.44%$0.1021 (−18.52%)
Oct 1, 2026
25d ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$0.1531 $0.1300▲ +15.09%▲ +16.25%$0.1021 (+33.31%)
Sep 23, 2026
4w ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$0.2280 $0.1530▲ +32.89%▲ +32.22%$0.1021 (+55.22%)
Aug 11, 2026
11w ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$0.7190 $0.6460▲ +10.15%▲ +9.75%$0.1021 (+85.80%)
Jul 13, 2026
15w ago
10-K/A
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$0.5710 $0.5300▼ −7.18%▼ −6.40%$0.1021 (−82.12%)
May 21, 2026
22w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$0.8410 $0.7699▼ −8.45%▼ −10.13%$0.1021 (−87.86%)
May 12, 2026
24w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$0.9230 $0.8830▼ −4.33%▼ −4.41%$0.1021 (−88.94%)
Apr 27, 2026
26w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 8/10
$1.15 $0.9410▼ −18.17%▼ −18.57%$0.1021 (−91.12%)
Apr 8, 2026
28w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$1.41 $1.43▲ +1.42%▼ −2.10%$0.1021 (−92.76%)
Apr 6, 2026
29w ago
EFFECT
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$1.25 $1.33▼ −6.40%▼ −2.27%$0.1021 (+91.83%)
Showing 10 of 10

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Report published Oct 1, 2026