SecBot SecBot
SC TO-T/A ·Filed Oct 1, 2026

ACVA

ACV Auctions Inc.
BEARISH
Impact 7/10
Horizondays Processed26d 21h ago SEC0001193125-26-409871
Notable filing: SC TO-T/A
Actionable Insight ▼ Bearish

The tender shortfall and HSR extension create a binary event: if Copart cannot secure enough tenders by October 7 or regulatory clearance by October 13, the deal may collapse. ACV stock is likely to trade at a discount to the $10.50 offer price until conditions are met. Watch for any increase in tenders or early termination of the HSR waiting period.

DirectionBearish
Confidencehigh
Horizondays
Latest settled: T+5d ⚠ clustered
ACVA ▼ -0.10% at T+5d
SHORT call ✓ call won +0.10% · α vs SPY +1.40% · entry $10.45 → $10.44
Next anchor: T+20d tomorrow
Latest observation: T+11 +7.05% FF3 residual α
Entry = T+0 close
Oct 1, 2026
via day close
T+1d
0.00%
call 0.00% · α +0.74%
$10.45
settled 26d ago
T+5d
-0.10%
call +0.10% · α +1.40%
$10.44
settled 20d ago
T+20d
Pending
tomorrow
T+60d
Pending
in 2mo

Price Chart

Loading chart...

Executive Summary

Copart has extended its all-cash tender offer for ACV Auctions to October 7, 2026, after only 47.78% of shares were tendered by the original deadline, falling short of the 50%+ minimum condition. The HSR waiting period was also extended to October 13, 2026, as Copart withdrew and refiled to give antitrust regulators more time. The deal's completion is now uncertain given the tender shortfall and ongoing regulatory review.

Key Financial Metrics

Deal Value
$1.8B
Deal Type
acquisition

Key Facts

  • Copart extended tender offer expiration to 5:00 p.m. ET on October 7, 2026, from the original September 30, 2026 deadline.
  • Only 81,269,394 shares (47.78% of outstanding) were validly tendered as of the original expiration, below the 50%+ minimum condition.
  • Copart withdrew and refiled its HSR Act Premerger Notification on September 28, 2026; the waiting period now expires October 13, 2026.
  • Offer price is $10.50 per share in cash.
  • Three stockholder lawsuits have been filed challenging the transaction's disclosures.
  • ACV's board recommends the offer (per Schedule 14D-9).

Financial Impact

The tender offer values ACV at approximately $1.78 billion based on 169.8M shares outstanding at $10.50/share. The 47.78% tender shortfall creates material completion risk.

share pricedeal completion probability

Risk Factors

  • Failure to reach the 50%+ minimum tender condition by the extended deadline could terminate the deal.
  • Antitrust review may result in a Second Request or challenge, further delaying or blocking the transaction.
  • Stockholder litigation could seek to enjoin the merger or extract additional disclosures.
  • No competing bid has emerged, leaving ACV with limited alternatives if the deal fails.

Investment Themes

Software & IT

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 5 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
SC TO-T/A Filing (Primary)0001193125-26-409871
Document: d113384dex99a5vi.htm0001193125-26-409871
Document: 0001193125-26-409871-index-headers.html0001193125-26-409871
Document: 0001193125-26-409871-index.html0001193125-26-409871
Document: 0001193125-26-409871.txt0001193125-26-409871
18 reports for ACVA
Performance horizon
67% Hit rate @ T+20 2 of 3 directional calls Went positive at some point 4 of 5 best @ T+1▲ +6.82%Jun 11, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for ACVA, sortable and filterable
TypeNow
Oct 27, 2026
today
15-12G
NEUTRAL ★ 6/10
No priceawaiting T+20awaiting T+20No price
Oct 19, 2026
8d ago
8-K
MIXED ★ 9/10
$10.50awaiting T+20awaiting T+20No price
Oct 16, 2026
11d ago
SC 14D-9/A
NEUTRAL ★ 5/10
$10.50awaiting T+20awaiting T+20No price
Oct 16, 2026
11d ago
25-NSE
MIXED ★ 8/10
$10.50awaiting T+20awaiting T+20No price
Oct 16, 2026
11d ago
SC TO-T/A
BULLISH ★ 8/10
$10.50awaiting T+20awaiting T+20No price
Oct 14, 2026
13d ago
SC 14D-9/A
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$10.50awaiting T+20awaiting T+20No price
Oct 14, 2026
13d ago
SC TO-T/A
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$10.50awaiting T+20awaiting T+20No price
Oct 8, 2026
19d ago
SC 14D-9/A
NEUTRAL ★ 5/10
$10.44awaiting T+20awaiting T+20No price
Oct 8, 2026
19d ago
SC TO-T/A
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$10.44awaiting T+20awaiting T+20No price
Oct 1, 2026
26d ago
SC 14D-9/A
NEUTRAL ★ 5/10
$10.45awaiting T+20awaiting T+20No price
Showing 10 of 18

US Market Status

Market Closed · Opens in 3h 46m

Subscribe to SecBot

Get Real-Time SEC Filing Intelligence

Comprehensive SEC filing analysis delivered the moment filings hit EDGAR. Sentiment scoring, impact analysis, and actionable insights for every material event.

Create a free account Live analysis, Telegram alerts, watchlists and the MCP server for subscribers
Report published Oct 1, 2026