Rosenblatt's initiation adds a bullish outlier to a stock with positive earnings momentum and a high short interest. The insider selling and mixed institutional flows suggest caution, but the combination of a high PT and rising EPS revisions makes this a tactical long candidate for traders willing to fade the short interest.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Rosenblatt initiated coverage on ABNB with a Buy rating and a $220 price target, representing 20.5% upside from the current $182.55. The firm has a 54% accuracy rate on 996 calls and an average return of 8.5%. Consensus is mixed: 28 Buy (72%), 20 Hold (26%), 2 Sell (3%) from 39 analysts. The mean target is $176.76, median $177, high $217, low $125. Rosenblatt's $220 target is above the consensus mean and high. Momentum is positive with 2 upgrades and 0 downgrades in the past 30 days. EPS revisions are trending higher: 18 up vs 5 down for the current quarter, 25 up vs 5 down for the current year. Insider Nathan Blecharczyk sold ~$2.5M on Aug 31, a bearish signal. Institutional activity is mixed: a new $20M position from Sculptor Capital LP and a 60.7% add from INTECH, but SRS trimmed 64.7% and Centiva trimmed 65.4%. Short interest is elevated at 65.8% of volume. The initiation from a mid-tier firm with a bullish PT above consensus is a modest positive signal, but insider selling and high short interest warrant caution.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus from 39 analysts: 9 Strong Buy, 19 Buy (total 28 Buy, 72%), 20 Hold (26%), 2 Sell (3%). The consensus is bullish but with a significant hold contingent. Rosenblatt's Buy aligns with the majority view.
Current price: $182.55. Mean target: $176.76 (implied -3.2% downside). Median: $177. High: $217. Low: $125. Rosenblatt's $220 target is above the high and 24.5% above the mean. This is a bullish outlier relative to consensus.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Rosenblatt | initiate | Buy | $220.00 |
| 2026-08-31 | DA Davidson | maintain | Buy | $220.00 |
| 2026-08-24 | Bernstein | maintain | Outperform | $217.00 |
| 2026-08-24 | Evercore ISI Group | maintain | Outperform | $200.00 |
| 2026-08-10 | BMO Capital | maintain | Market Perform | $165.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | DA Davidson | maintain | Buy | $175.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | UBS | maintain | Neutral | $172.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | Baird | maintain | Outperform | $175.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | Barclays | maintain | Equal-Weight | $150.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | Citigroup | maintain | Buy | $193.00 |
30-day analyst activity: 2 upgrades, 0 downgrades. EPS revisions are positive: 18 up vs 5 down for the current quarter, 25 up vs 5 down for the current year. Estimates are being revised higher, supporting the bullish initiation.
Firm Track Record — Rosenblatt
Rosenblatt accuracy: 54% on 996 calls | avg return: 8.5%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTIG | 100% | 2/2 | 7.7% | top tier |
| Deutsche Bank | 75% | 3/4 | 6.4% | top tier |
| RBC Capital | 75% | 3/4 | 8% | top tier |
| Piper Sandler | 75% | 3/4 | 6.1% | top tier |
| DA Davidson | 71% | 5/7 | 3.5% | top tier |
| TD Cowen | 67% | 4/6 | 0.9% | top tier |
| BMO Capital | 67% | 2/3 | 3.1% | top tier |
| Morgan Stanley | 67% | 4/6 | -2.5% | top tier |
| Mizuho | 67% | 2/3 | 4.2% | top tier |
| Jefferies | 67% | 6/9 | 4.1% | top tier |
Rosenblatt has a 54% accuracy rate on 996 calls with an 8.5% average return, placing it in the above-average tier. Among firms covering ABNB, top performers include BTIG (100% on 2 calls), Deutsche Bank (75% on 4), RBC Capital (75% on 4), and Piper Sandler (75% on 4). Rosenblatt's accuracy is below these top-tier firms but above the median.
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | $2.85 | $2.52 — $3.34 | $4.7B | ↑18 ↓0 |
| +1q | $0.82 | $0.67 — $1.00 | $3.2B | ↑16 ↓0 |
| 0y | $5.29 | $5.00 — $5.91 | $14.2B | ↑25 ↓0 |
| +1y | $6.19 | $5.35 — $8.09 | $15.7B | ↑21 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider Nathan Blecharczyk (co-founder) sold ~$2.5M on Aug 31 — a bearish signal that partially offsets the bullish analyst call. Institutional activity is mixed: Sculptor Capital LP opened a new $20M position, INTECH added 60.7%, but SRS trimmed 64.7% and Centiva trimmed 65.4%. Short interest is high at 65.8% of volume, indicating significant bearish positioning. No congressional trades reported.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 15, 2026 16d ago | 144 | $168.32 $166.22 | ▼ −1.25% | ▼ −2.07% | $160.47 (−4.66%) |
Sep 8, 2026 23d ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $174.54 $168.32 | ▼ −3.56% | ▼ −2.44% | $160.47 (−8.06%) |
Sep 3, 2026 28d ago | Insider Cluster | $181.94 $170.65 | ▼ −6.21% | ▼ −5.00% | $160.47 (−11.80%) |
Sep 1, 2026 4w ago | 144 | $182.55 $169.63 | ▼ −7.08% | ▼ −7.16% | $160.47 (−12.09%) |
Sep 1, 2026 4w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $182.55 $169.63 | ▼ −7.08% | ▼ −7.16% | $160.47 (−12.09%) |
Aug 12, 2026 7w ago | Insider Cluster | $180.10 $186.39 | ▲ +3.50% | ▲ +3.94% | $160.47 (−10.90%) |
Aug 12, 2026 7w ago | Insider Cluster | $180.10 $186.39 | ▲ +3.50% | ▲ +3.94% | $160.47 (−10.90%) |
Aug 12, 2026 7w ago | Insider Cluster | $180.10 $186.39 | ▲ +3.50% | ▲ +3.94% | $160.47 (−10.90%) |
Aug 6, 2026 8w ago | 8-K | $178.07 $184.06 | ▲ +3.36% | ▲ +2.97% | $160.47 (−9.88%) |
Aug 5, 2026 8w ago | Insider Cluster | $151.64 $185.13 | ▲ +22.09% | ▲ +20.87% | $160.47 (+5.82%) |
US Market Status
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