The institutional cluster is directionally positive but small in scale and lacks insider confirmation. Given the poor historical track record of model calls on AAON (11% T+20 win rate), traders should treat this as a modest positive signal at best. Monitor for additional 13F filings from other active managers and any insider open-market purchases to confirm the thesis.
Executive Summary
Institutional activity in AAON during 2026-Q2 shows a mixed picture: three asset managers added $71.8M in new holdings, led by Pictet Asset Management doubling its stake to $112.1M, while two sellers trimmed modestly. The net buying of $71.8M is notable but the cluster is small and lacks insider corroboration, weakening conviction. Historical performance on AAON reports is poor (11% win rate at T+20), suggesting caution despite the institutional accumulation.
Key Financial Metrics
Institutional Positions
Net institutional flow: $69.7M
▲ Buyers (3)
| Institution | Action | Change | Position Value | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pictet Asset Management Holding | ADD | +31.7% | $112.1M | $56.6M |
| Farther Finance Advisors | DOUBLED | +166.8% | $107.0K | $80.0K |
| Erste Asset Management | DOUBLED | +24000% | $15.1M | $15.1M |
▼ Sellers (2)
| Institution | Action | Change | Prev Value | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swedbank Ab | TRIM | -43.1% | $17.9M | -$2.3M |
| New York State Common Retirement Fund | TRIM | -32.6% | $5.8M | $194.0K |
Key Facts
- 3 institutional buyers added $71.8M in net new holdings during 2026-Q2
- Pictet Asset Management increased its stake by 31.7% to $112.1M, the largest buyer
- Erste Asset Management initiated a new position of $15.1M (up from $41K)
- 2 sellers trimmed a combined $2.1M, with Swedbank AB reducing by 43.1%
- No insider open-market buying corroborates the institutional cluster
- Historical model calls on AAON have a T+20 win rate of only 11%
Financial Impact
3 institutional buyers accumulated $71.8M in new positions while 2 sellers reduced holdings by $2.1M, for net institutional buying of approximately $69.7M
Risk Factors
- 13F data is 45+ days stale; positions may have been unwound since quarter-end
- No insider buying to corroborate the institutional accumulation
- Historical model performance on AAON shows poor directional accuracy
- Cluster is small (only 3 buyers) and dominated by one large position (Pictet)
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 institutional 13F filing from SEC EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| INST-CLUSTER Data (Synthetic) | inst-cluster-AAON-2026-Q2 |
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 28, 2026 5w ago | 8-K | $75.87 $79.40 | ▲ +4.65% | ▲ +4.54% | — |
Aug 13, 2026 7w ago | Press Release | $87.67 $80.84 | ▼ −7.79% | ▼ −5.83% | — |
Aug 10, 2026 7w ago | 8-K | $89.24 $88.09 | ▼ −1.29% | ▼ −1.24% | — |
Jul 31, 2026 9w ago | Institutional Cluster | $89.06 $94.83 | ▲ +6.48% | ▲ +2.97% | — |
Jul 30, 2026 9w ago | 8-K | $87.59 $90.28 | ▲ +3.07% | ▼ −0.55% | — |
Jul 23, 2026 10w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $107.68 $87.59 | ▼ −18.66% | ▼ −19.13% | — |
Jun 8, 2026 16w ago | 8-K | $132.05 $131.26 | ▼ −0.60% | ▼ −2.71% | — |
Jun 5, 2026 17w ago | Insider Cluster | $132.62 $127.19 | ▼ −4.09% | ▼ −4.66% | — |
May 27, 2026 18w ago | Insider Cluster | $139.54 $143.50 | ▲ +2.84% | ▲ +1.63% | — |
May 27, 2026 18w ago | Insider Cluster | $139.54 $143.50 | ▲ +2.84% | ▲ +1.63% | — |
US Market Status
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