The extreme short interest (83.2%) and heavy insider selling create a high-risk setup ahead of earnings on July 30. While the bullish consensus and upward EPS revisions suggest upside, the neutral initiation from Keybanc and insider sales argue for caution. Traders should wait for the earnings catalyst before taking directional exposure.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Keybanc initiated coverage on AAON at Sector Weight with no price target on July 23, 2026, a neutral stance that diverges from the overwhelmingly bullish consensus. The firm has a 52% accuracy rate on 1,560 calls with an average return of 3.3%, placing it below the top-tier firms covering AAON. Consensus stands at 92% Buy (12 of 13 analysts) with a mean price target of $151.33, implying 43% upside from the current $105.61. The lone Hold call from Keybanc is a contrarian signal, but the firm's below-average accuracy tempers its significance. Momentum is positive — 1 upgrade in 30 days, no downgrades, and EPS revisions are trending higher across all periods. Insider selling is heavy, with $6.8M in sales over the past two months, including a $2.97M sale by CEO Fields Gary D on May 26, 2026, creating a bearish divergence with the bullish analyst consensus. Short interest is extremely elevated at 83.2% of float, suggesting heavy bearish positioning. The next earnings report is due July 30, 2026 — just 7 days away — adding a timing catalyst. The bottom line: Keybanc's neutral initiation is a cautious outlier in a sea of bullish ratings, but the combination of heavy insider selling, extreme short interest, and imminent earnings creates a high-risk, binary setup that warrants caution despite the consensus upside.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus is 92% Buy — 7 Strong Buy, 5 Buy, 1 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell across 13 analysts. The lone Hold is Keybanc's initiation, making it the only non-bullish rating. This is a heavily bullish consensus with no bearish voices.
Current price: $105.61. Mean target: $151.33 (43% upside), median: $150, high: $154, low: $150. Keybanc did not provide a price target, so its view sits below the consensus range. The tight target range ($150-$154) reflects high agreement among the three analysts with targets.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Keybanc | initiate | Sector Weight | — |
| 2026-03-03 | Oppenheimer | maintain | Outperform | — |
| 2026-02-03 | DA Davidson | maintain | Buy | $120.00 |
| 2025-10-14 | Oppenheimer | maintain | Outperform | $112.00 |
| 2025-08-12 | DA Davidson | maintain | Buy | $105.00 |
| 2025-08-12 | Baird | maintain | Buy | $98.00 |
| 2025-06-16 | Sidoti & Co. | upgrade | Buy | $95.00 |
| 2025-06-11 | Baird | maintain | Outperform | $102.00 |
| 2025-05-02 | Baird | maintain | Outperform | $110.00 |
| 2025-02-28 | CJS Securities | upgrade | Market Outperform | $110.00 |
30-day analyst activity: 1 upgrade (Sidoti & Co. from Neutral to Buy on June 16, 2025), 0 downgrades. EPS revisions are strongly positive — 4 upward revisions in the last 7 days for +1y estimates, 4 up in 30 days with 0 down. All periods show upward revisions, indicating improving earnings expectations.
Firm Track Record — Keybanc
Keybanc accuracy: 52% on 1560 calls | avg return: 3.3%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 3 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baird | 63% | 5/8 | 9.1% | top tier |
| DA Davidson | 60% | 3/5 | 9.9% | above average |
| Sidoti & Co. | 50% | 1/2 | 21% | below average |
Keybanc has a 52% accuracy rate on 1,560 calls with an average return of 3.3%, below the top-tier firms covering AAON. Baird leads with 63% accuracy on 8 calls and 9.1% avg return. DA Davidson has 60% on 5 calls with 9.9% avg return. Sidoti & Co. has 50% on 2 calls with 21% avg return. Keybanc's accuracy is average, not exceptional.
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: Jul 30, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1y | $3.42 | $3.07 — $3.95 | $2.4B | ↑4 ↓0 |
| 0y | $2.26 | $2.12 — $2.35 | $2.1B | ↑4 ↓0 |
| +1q | $0.66 | $0.62 — $0.69 | $531.0M | ↑4 ↓0 |
| 0q | $0.49 | $0.46 — $0.52 | $501.2M | ↑2 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider trades show heavy selling: $6.8M in sales over the past two months, including CEO Fields Gary D selling $2.97M on May 26 and $2.66M on May 29, plus CFO Thompson Rebecca selling $607K on June 2. This is a strong bearish signal opposing the bullish consensus. Institutional activity is mixed — Farther Finance doubled its position (+167%) while major holders like Morgan Stanley (-26%), FMR (-42%), and Ameriprise (-39%) trimmed. Short interest is extreme at 83.2% of float, indicating massive bearish bets. No congressional trades. The divergence between insider selling and analyst bullishness is notable.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 28, 2026 5w ago | 8-K | $75.87 $79.40 | ▲ +4.65% | ▲ +4.54% | $84.43 (+11.28%) |
Aug 13, 2026 7w ago | Press Release | $87.67 $80.84 | ▼ −7.79% | ▼ −5.83% | $84.43 (−3.70%) |
Aug 10, 2026 7w ago | 8-K | $89.24 $88.09 | ▼ −1.29% | ▼ −1.24% | $84.43 (−5.39%) |
Jul 31, 2026 9w ago | Institutional Cluster | $89.06 $94.83 | ▲ +6.48% | ▲ +2.97% | $84.43 (−5.20%) |
Jul 30, 2026 9w ago | 8-K | $87.59 $90.28 | ▲ +3.07% | ▼ −0.55% | $84.43 (−3.61%) |
Jul 23, 2026 10w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $107.68 $87.59 | ▼ −18.66% | ▼ −19.13% | $84.43 (−21.59%) |
Jun 8, 2026 16w ago | 8-K | $132.05 $131.26 | ▼ −0.60% | ▼ −2.71% | $84.43 (−36.06%) |
Jun 5, 2026 17w ago | Insider Cluster | $132.62 $127.19 | ▼ −4.09% | ▼ −4.66% | $84.43 (−36.34%) |
May 27, 2026 18w ago | Insider Cluster | $139.54 $143.50 | ▲ +2.84% | ▲ +1.63% | $84.43 (−39.49%) |
May 27, 2026 18w ago | Insider Cluster | $139.54 $143.50 | ▲ +2.84% | ▲ +1.63% | $84.43 (−39.49%) |
US Market Status
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