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EFFECT ·Filed Jun 3, 2026

AADX

Applied Aerospace & Defense, Inc.
BULLISH
Impact 7/10
Horizonimmediate Processed4mo ago SEC9999999995-26-001847
IPO/offering going effective
Actionable Insight ▲ Bullish

The IPO is now cleared to price, likely within 1-2 trading days. Monitor for the final pricing announcement and first-day trading performance. The large insider ownership post-IPO (81%) means limited float and potential for price volatility.

DirectionBullish
Confidencehigh
Horizonimmediate
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d ⚠ clustered
AADX ▼ -24.15% at T+60d
LONG call ✗ call lost -24.15% · α vs SPY -26.64% · entry $19.01 → $14.42
Entry = T+0 close
Jun 3, 2026
via day close
T+1d
-2.16%
call -2.16% · α -2.56%
$18.60
settled 5mo ago
T+5d
-3.16%
call -3.16% · α +0.66%
$18.41
settled 5mo ago
T+20d
+21.30%
call +21.30% · α +22.30%
$23.06
settled 4mo ago
T+60d
-24.15%
call -24.15% · α -26.64%
$14.42
settled 8w ago

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

The SEC declared effective the S-1 registration statement for Applied Aerospace & Defense, Inc.'s initial public offering. The company can now proceed to price and list up to 32,500,000 shares of common stock on the NYSE under ticker AADX, with an estimated price range of $18.00 to $21.00 per share.

Key Facts

  • IPO registration declared effective on June 2, 2026.
  • Offering size: 32,500,000 shares of common stock.
  • Estimated IPO price range: $18.00 to $21.00 per share.
  • Underwriters have a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 4,875,000 shares.
  • Company will list on NYSE under ticker AADX.
  • Post-IPO, affiliates of Greenbriar Equity Group will own ~81.0% of common stock (78.7% if overallotment exercised).
  • Lead underwriters: Morgan Stanley and Jefferies.

Financial Impact

Gross proceeds to the company from the primary offering of 32,500,000 shares at the midpoint of the estimated range ($19.50) would be approximately $633.75 million, before underwriting discounts and expenses.

dilutioncashshares outstanding

Risk Factors

  • Post-IPO lock-up expiration could lead to selling pressure from the controlling shareholder.
  • No prior public market for the stock; price discovery is uncertain.
  • Controlled company structure limits minority shareholder influence.

Investment Themes

Defense Tech

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 3 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
EFFECT Filing (Primary)9999999995-26-001847
Document: 9999999995-26-001847-index.html9999999995-26-001847
Document: 9999999995-26-001847.txt9999999995-26-001847
14 reports for AADX
Performance horizon
25% Hit rate @ T+20 1 of 4 directional calls Went positive at some point 3 of 4 best @ T+20▲ +31.58%Jun 4, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for AADX — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Aug 14, 2026
10w ago
Institutional Cluster
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$18.12 $12.22▼ −32.56%▼ −30.58%$10.39 (−42.66%)
Aug 12, 2026
10w ago
8-K
MIXED ★ 6/10
$19.11 $11.54▼ −39.61%▼ −37.72%$10.39 (−45.63%)
Aug 10, 2026
11w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$21.52 $12.39▼ −42.43%▼ −41.51%$10.39 (−51.72%)
Jun 29, 2026
17w ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 3/10
$20.73 $18.01▼ −13.12%▼ −12.84%$10.39 (−49.88%)
Jun 4, 2026
20w ago
Insider Cluster
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$17.54 $23.08▲ +31.58%▲ +29.72%$10.39 (−40.76%)
Jun 4, 2026
20w ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$17.54 $23.08▼ −31.58%▼ −29.72%$10.39 (+40.76%)
Jun 4, 2026
20w ago
424B4
NEUTRAL ★ 5/10
$18.60 $23.06▲ +23.98%▲ +25.35%$10.39 (−44.14%)
Jun 3, 2026
20w ago
3
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$18.60 $23.06▲ +23.98%▲ +25.35%$10.39 (−44.14%)
Jun 3, 2026
20w ago
3
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$18.60 $23.06▲ +23.98%▲ +25.35%$10.39 (−44.14%)
Jun 3, 2026
20w ago
3
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$18.60 $23.06▲ +23.98%▲ +25.35%$10.39 (−44.14%)
Showing 10 of 14

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Report published Jun 3, 2026