PRE-MARKET · FRI · APR 24 · 2026 · 07:45 ET ·REGIME · ELEVATED

Risk-on tape into mega-cap earnings week — semis lead as INTC gaps +29% pre-market; VIX compresses on Iran ceasefire extension while crude holds $95, keeping regime ELEVATED, not CALM.

SecBot Research

01Executive Summary

S&P 500 futures point to a firm open with ES pre-market indicated +0.4%, extending an 8.4% trailing-30d rally as earnings season skews positive.
Intel (INTC) +28.75% pre-market to $85.98 after Q1 beat and capacity-tight foundry guide — dragging the SMH ETF +4.24% and reigniting the semi leadership narrative.
Tesla (TSLA) breaks below both SMA50 and SMA200 with technical score -7.51 and 3m momentum -16.8%, setting up a downside continuation absent a delivery-number rescue.
Regime classified ELEVATED (not CALM) — VIX 18.80 is compressing but crude $95 and gold $4,710 keep macro overhang alive; convergence bar remains HIGH+MEDIUM for stock picks.
Credit risk-on: LQD +$1.01B and HYG stable while IGV +$868M/5d signals institutions are adding tech-credit + tech-equity together, a classic late-cycle leadership tell.
Breadth confirms: advancers lead decliners 2.1:1 on 30d, new highs 412 vs new lows 58, but RSI extremes (SMH 79.6, SPY 71.2) warrant downgrade on momentum-only picks.

02Market Snapshot

S&P 500

6,142.88

▲ +0.39% +24.17

30D +8.42%

Nasdaq

22,891.45

▲ +0.57% +128.64

30D +16.66%

Dow Jones

44,318.02

▲ +0.25% +112.34

30D +9.17%

Russell 2000

2,394.18

▲ +0.67% +15.82

30D +13.29%

VIX

18.80

▼ -2.19% -0.42

30D -21.4%

ES Pre-Market

6,168.25

▲ +0.41% +25.37

30D +8.51%

03Sector & Breadth

Leaders

Semiconductors

+4.24%

Technology

+1.18%

Communication Services

+0.74%

Industrials

+0.51%

Consumer Discretionary

+0.44%

Laggards

Utilities

-0.38%

Consumer Staples

-0.21%

Real Estate

-0.14%

A/D 2.1:1 Advancers : decliners — ratio of rising to falling stocks on the session.

Volume +8% above 10-day avg Today's NYSE composite volume vs. the 10-day average. 1.0× = normal.

52W Hi 412 Stocks closing at a new 52-week high today.

52W Lo 58 Stocks closing at a new 52-week low today.

04ETF Flows

Inflows

SOXX iShares Semiconductor

+$1.24B

LQD iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corp

+$1.01B

IGV iShares Expanded Tech-Software

+$868M

XLK Technology Select Sector SPDR

+$642M

QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust

+$538M

Outflows

XLU Utilities Select Sector SPDR

-$418M

XLP Consumer Staples Select SPDR

-$287M

TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury

-$214M

XLRE Real Estate Select SPDR

-$148M

GLD SPDR Gold Shares

-$112M

05Biggest Movers

Gainers

INTC ▲ +28.75%

Intel Corp.

Q1 beat on foundry revenue; capacity-tight guide through 2026.

SMH ▲ +4.24%

VanEck Semiconductor ETF

INTC halo + NVDA sympathy bid on AI capex prints.

ROKU ▲ +6.18%

Roku Inc.

Netflix upside read-through on streaming ARPU growth.

LLY ▲ +1.87%

Eli Lilly & Co.

GLP-1 launch channel checks; positioning into May earnings.

Losers

TSLA ▼ -3.82%

Tesla Inc.

Broke SMA50/SMA200; delivery miss overhang into next week.

BA ▼ -2.41%

Boeing Co.

FAA reopened 737 MAX door-plug probe; delivery guide risk.

06Key Drivers

01 Intel Q1 earnings beat (EPS $0.34 vs $0.18 est) with 18A foundry capacity sold through 2026 — catalyzing semi-sector re-rating.
02 Iran-Israel ceasefire extended 90 days by UN Security Council vote; VIX compresses but crude holds $95 on Strait of Hormuz transit risk premium.
03 10-year Treasury yield 4.18% (-2bp) as Fed's Waller signals patience on Sep cut; real yields rolling over supports duration-sensitive tech.
04 LQD +$1.01B inflow confirms credit risk appetite; HY spreads stable at 2.84% — no stress signal from credit markets.
05 Q1 2026 earnings season tracking +11.4% YoY blended growth vs +7.8% expected entering — positive surprise rate 78% (vs 5-year avg 77%).
06 Treasury auction $48B 5-year notes at 1:00 ET — indirect bid ratio will be tape-moving given dollar weakness narrative.
07 DXY 103.42 (-0.18) holds below 104 breakdown level; EUR/USD 1.0985 probing 1.10 resistance — dollar-weakness tailwind for multinationals.
08 Bitcoin $112,400 (+2.1%) and ETH $4,280 (+3.4%) confirm risk-on; COIN and MSTR gap up sympathy.

07Technical Analysis

S&P 500

SPX 6,142 — above rising SMA20 (6,088), SMA50 (5,942), SMA200 (5,614); RSI(14) 71.2 overbought; key support 6,088 then 5,942; resistance 6,180 (ATH).

Nasdaq

NDX 22,891 — RSI 73.4 extended; support SMA20 22,412 then SMA50 21,788; resistance at untested 23,100 extension level.

VIX

VIX 18.80 compressing toward 18 floor; below would flip regime to CALM. A bounce from 18 with spot equity softness would be early warning for ELEVATED-to-STRESS drift.

SMH RSI 79.6 — extreme overbought; first test of overshoot on any INTC fade.
QQQ above 20d Keltner upper band for 8th session — mean-reversion pressure building.
TLT rejected at SMA200 ($93.40); yield 4.18% holding 4.15 support.

08Cross-Market

US Treasuries

10-year 4.18% (-2bp); 2-year 3.92% (-1bp); curve +26bp steepening slightly.

DXY 103.42 (-0.18); EUR/USD 1.0985; USD/JPY 151.24.

Commodities

WTI $95.32 (-0.8%), Brent $99.10 (-0.7%), Gold $4,710 (+0.3%), Copper $5.18/lb (+1.2%).

Europe / Asia

Europe: STOXX 600 +0.38%, DAX +0.52% on ASML sympathy; FTSE flat on miners. Asia: Nikkei +1.24% on chip names, Hang Seng +0.88%, Shanghai Composite +0.34%.

Other

Bitcoin $112,400 (+2.1%), Ethereum $4,280 (+3.4%) — risk-on crypto confirms equity signal.

09Upcoming Calendar

Economic 5

08:30 ET

Durable Goods Orders (Mar)

+1.2% MoM

08:30 ET

Initial Jobless Claims

218K

10:00 ET

New Home Sales (Mar)

682K SAAR

13:00 ET

Treasury 5-Year Note Auction ($48B)

Indirect bid >65%

09:30 ET

Fed's Waller speaks on economic outlook

Patient-on-cuts tone

Earnings 5

GOOGL Alphabet Inc. AMC

Apr 24, 2026

EPS $2.14 · Rev $92.4B

Prior: Beat by $0.18

Cloud growth and Search AI monetization read-through for the full mega-cap complex.

INTC Intel Corp. AMC

Apr 23, 2026

EPS $0.18 · Rev $13.1B

Prior: Beat by $0.16 (reported after hours)

Already reported — gapping +29%; the print is the tape setter for semis today.

T AT&T Inc. BMO

Apr 24, 2026

EPS $0.56 · Rev $30.2B

Wireless subs + fiber build pace; defensive-yield proxy into rate-cut path.

MRK Merck & Co. BMO

Apr 24, 2026

EPS $2.18 · Rev $15.8B

Keytruda pricing post-IRA negotiation; oncology pipeline franchise read.

HON Honeywell International BMO

Apr 24, 2026

EPS $2.24 · Rev $9.8B

Aerospace aftermarket pricing; industrial short-cycle bellwether.

Biotech Catalysts 3

BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb

sNDA, Priority Review

PDUFA · Apr 29, 2026

Schizophrenia (KarXT follow-on)

Cobenfy label expansion — $3B+ peak sales uplift if approved.

SRPT Sarepta Therapeutics

Phase 3 EMBARK-2

Phase 3 readout · Data expected early May 2026

Duchenne muscular dystrophy (ELEVIDYS expansion)

Confirmatory data after 2024 accelerated approval — franchise-defining.

VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals

Phase 3 post-surgical

Phase 3 readout · H2 2026 topline

Acute pain (suzetrigine)

Non-opioid pain franchise — multibillion TAM, label-expansion trigger.

10 Stocks in Focus Quotes as of 08:15 ET

Names in focus based on expected market-moving catalysts and technical setups. Descriptive commentary only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

INTC

Intel Corp.

▲UPSIDE High PROB EARNINGS

$85.98 ▲ +28.75% 24h

Price at report release

Post-earnings gap with foundry capacity sold through 2026; technical score +41.5 and ADX 39.1 signal strong trend initiation. Watching for continuation toward $90 fill-the-gap resistance as short covering and under-positioned mutual funds chase into month-end.

Resistance

$90.25+5.0% ↑

▶$85.98Now

Support

$82.40−4.2% ↓

SMH

VanEck Semiconductor ETF

▲UPSIDE Moderate PROB POSITIONING

$502.27 ▲ +4.24% 24h

Price at report release

INTC gap lifts the whole complex; AI capex prints from hyperscalers next week support continuation. Setting up for a test of $510 measured-move target — though RSI 79.6 caps this at Moderate probability given overbought risk.

Resistance

$510.00+1.5% ↑

▶$502.27Now

Support

$488.50−2.7% ↓

TSLA

Tesla Inc.

▼DOWNSIDE High PROB TECHNICAL

$228.42 ▼ -3.82% 24h

Price at report release

Broke below SMA50 ($242) and SMA200 ($236) with technical score -7.51 and 3m momentum -16.8%. Setting up for downside continuation toward $215 support absent a delivery-number rescue; dark-pool short ratio elevated at 58%.

Resistance

$240.00+5.1% ↑

▶$228.42Now

Support

$215.00−5.9% ↓

11Outlook

Regime stays ELEVATED: VIX 18.80 is compressing but crude $95 and gold $4,710 keep macro tension real, so convergence bar remains HIGH+MEDIUM and momentum-only picks get downgraded. Near-term bias favors semis and credit-sensitive tech (INTC/SMH leadership, LQD+IGV inflows), but RSI extremes on SPX/NDX/SMH argue against chasing strength — the setup favors dips-bought over breakout-chased. Key tape tests today: GOOGL after hours (cloud + Search AI), 5-year Treasury auction at 13:00 ET, and whether VIX breaks 18 to flip regime to CALM. Watch TSLA for downside continuation as the relative-weakness funding short against semi longs.

Important Disclosures

This report is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a research report within the meaning of applicable securities regulations, or a recommendation, solicitation, or offer to buy or sell any security.

References to expected price moves, support and resistance levels, or names "in focus" are descriptive observations about market conditions and expected behaviour — not directives to take a position. SecBot is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or financial planner. Past performance does not indicate future results. Any investment decisions are solely your own and you should consult a qualified financial professional who understands your individual circumstances before acting on any information herein.

SecBot and its affiliates may hold positions in securities mentioned. Figures are sourced from third-party data providers and may contain errors; readers should independently verify before relying on any specific number.