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EFFECT ·Filed Sep 11, 2026

ZBAO

Zhibao Technology Inc.
BEARISH
Impact 8/10
Horizonimmediate Processed1mo ago SEC9999999995-26-002938
IPO/offering going effective
Actionable Insight ▼ Bearish

The selling shareholder (3i, LP) can now immediately begin selling into the market. Expect significant downward pressure on ZBAO as the massive overhang is monetized. Monitor for Form 4 filings and volume spikes indicating the start of selling. The cross-filing context (F-1 filed 11 days ago) amplifies this as a near-term liquidity event.

DirectionBearish
Confidencehigh
Horizonimmediate
Latest settled — T+20d
ZBAO ▼ -61.48% at T+20d
SHORT call ✓ call won +61.48% · α vs SPY +63.34% · entry $0.1490 → $0.0574
Next anchor: T+60d in 6w
Latest observation: T+22 +59.22% FF3 residual α
Entry = T+0 close
Sep 11, 2026
via day close
T+1d
-22.82%
call +22.82% · α +22.37%
$0.1150
settled 6w ago
T+5d
-23.22%
call +23.22% · α +23.00%
$0.1144
settled 6w ago
T+20d
-61.48%
call +61.48% · α +63.34%
$0.0574
settled 18d ago
T+60d
Pending
in 6w

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

The SEC declared effective Zhibao Technology Inc.'s F-1 registration statement (File No. 333-298651) on September 10, 2026, enabling the resale of up to 414,275,709 Class A ordinary shares and up to 395,678,152 warrant shares from an August 2026 PIPE financing. This massive potential overhang, representing ~180% of currently outstanding Class A shares, combined with a previously disclosed going-concern warning and net losses, creates severe dilution risk for existing shareholders.

Key Facts

  • Effectiveness date: September 10, 2026
  • Registration statement File No. 333-298651 declared effective
  • Covers resale of up to 414,275,709 Class A ordinary shares and up to 395,678,152 warrant shares from August 2026 PIPE
  • Potential dilution represents ~180% of currently outstanding Class A shares
  • Prior F-1 filing disclosed going-concern warning, material internal control weaknesses, and net loss for FY2025
  • Company received 2,380 Bitcoins (~$154.7M at $65K/BTC) in the PIPE financing

Financial Impact

Up to 809,953,861 shares registered for resale, representing ~180% dilution of current Class A shares; company received ~$154.7M in Bitcoin from the PIPE

dilutionshare countmarket cap

Risk Factors

  • Massive dilution from up to 809.9M shares registered for resale
  • Going-concern risk and material internal control weaknesses
  • PRC regulatory risks as a Cayman Islands holding company with China operations
  • Potential for sustained selling pressure from the PIPE investor

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq
Sector
Insurance Agents, Brokers & Service

Investment Themes

Traditional Finance

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 3 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
EFFECT Filing (Primary)9999999995-26-002938
Document: 9999999995-26-002938-index.html9999999995-26-002938
Document: 9999999995-26-002938.txt9999999995-26-002938
11 reports for ZBAO
Performance horizon
100% Hit rate @ T+5 6 of 6 directional calls Went positive at some point 6 of 6 best @ T+60▲ +96.73%Jul 31, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for ZBAO — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 8, 2026
18d ago
6-K
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$0.0586 $0.0190▲ +67.50%▲ +67.22%$0.3270 (−458.02%)
Sep 28, 2026
28d ago
6-K
MIXED ★ 5/10
$4.35 $4.45▲ +2.30%▲ +1.09%$0.3270 (−92.48%)
Sep 17, 2026
5w ago
6-K
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$0.1160 $0.0934▲ +19.48%▲ +20.08%$0.3270 (−181.90%)
Sep 11, 2026
6w ago
EFFECT
BEARISH ★ 8/10
$0.1490 $0.1144▲ +23.22%▲ +23.00%$0.3270 (−119.46%)
Aug 31, 2026
8w ago
F-1
BEARISH ★ 8/10
$0.1697 $0.1557▲ +8.25%▲ +8.11%$0.3270 (−92.69%)
Jul 31, 2026
12w ago
6-K
BEARISH ★ 8/10
$0.2001 $0.1881▲ +6.00%▲ +9.51%$0.3270 (−63.42%)
Jul 22, 2026
13w ago
6-K
NEUTRAL ★ 5/10
$0.2620 $0.1590▼ −39.31%▼ −36.91%$0.3270 (+24.81%)
Jul 15, 2026
14w ago
6-K
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$0.2538 $0.2522▲ +0.63%▼ −1.04%$0.3270 (−28.84%)
Jul 6, 2026
16w ago
6-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$0.4210 $0.2895▼ −31.24%▼ −30.95%$0.3270 (−22.33%)
Jun 5, 2026
20w ago
EFFECT
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$0.6668 $0.6260▲ +6.12%▲ +6.69%$0.3270 (+50.96%)
Showing 10 of 11

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Report published Sep 11, 2026