Vanguard's massive scale-up in NFLX and NOW signals strong conviction in streaming and enterprise software — consider following into these names. The new TotalEnergies and Qnity positions suggest a thematic bet on energy transition and electronics manufacturing. Exits from K, IPG, and SPR indicate sector rotation away from packaged foods and ad agencies. Monitor for continued passive index rebalancing effects.
Executive Summary
Vanguard's Q4 2025 13F shows massive capital deployment into tech and energy, with huge increases in Netflix (+912%), ServiceNow (+404%), and new positions in TotalEnergies ($5.3B) and Qnity Electronics ($2.2B). Exits include Kellanova, Interpublic, and Spirit AeroSystems, indicating a rotation away from consumer staples and legacy media toward growth and energy. The net capital flow is strongly bullish, with over $60B in new/increased positions vs ~$5B in exits.
Key Financial Metrics
Per-Ticker Signals
| Ticker | Signal | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| NFLX | ▲ BULLISH | Vanguard more than 10x'd its position to 390M shares worth $36.6B, signaling massive conviction in streaming growth |
| NOW | ▲ BULLISH | Position increased 404.5% to 102M shares worth $15.6B, a huge bet on enterprise software |
| TTE | ▲ BULLISH | New $5.3B position in TotalEnergies indicates a major energy transition bet |
| QNITY | ▲ BULLISH | New $2.2B position in Qnity Electronics signals conviction in electronics manufacturing |
| BN | ▲ BULLISH | Added 52.1% to Brookfield Corp, now $4.2B position — bullish on alternative asset management |
| OMC | ▲ BULLISH | Added 64.2% to Omnicom, now $3.1B — bullish on advertising recovery |
| TPL | ▲ BULLISH | Doubled Texas Pacific Land to $2.2B, bullish on Permian Basin land value |
| FLEX | ▲ BULLISH | Doubled Flex Ltd to $2.3B, bullish on electronics manufacturing services |
| CRWV | ▲ BULLISH | Increased 275.6% to $2.0B in CoreWeave, bullish on AI infrastructure |
| RKT | ▲ BULLISH | Increased 280.3% to $1.7B in Rocket Companies, bullish on mortgage tech |
| K | ▼ BEARISH | Exited 33.4M shares of Kellanova entirely — bearish on packaged foods |
| IPG | ▼ BEARISH | Exited 44.4M shares of Interpublic — bearish on traditional advertising |
| SPR | ▼ BEARISH | Exited 10.7M shares of Spirit AeroSystems — bearish on aerospace supplier |
| COOP | ▼ BEARISH | Exited 6.7M shares of Mr. Cooper Group — bearish on mortgage servicing |
| LNWO | ▼ BEARISH | Exited 7.9M shares of Light & Wonder — bearish on gaming |
| HBI | ▼ BEARISH | Exited 37.6M shares of Hanesbrands — bearish on apparel |
| INFA | ▼ BEARISH | Exited 12.5M shares of Informatica — bearish on data integration |
| SOLS | ▲ BULLISH | New $893M position in Solstice Advanced Materials — bullish on advanced materials |
| MDLN | ▲ BULLISH | New $793M position in Medline — bullish on medical supplies |
| OPEN | ▲ BULLISH | Added 61.7% to Opendoor, now $643M — bullish on iBuying recovery |
| APLD | ▲ BULLISH | Added 36.4% to Applied Digital, now $593M — bullish on AI data centers |
| UEC | ▲ BULLISH | Added 32.2% to Uranium Energy Corp, now $552M — bullish on nuclear fuel |
| CIFR | ▲ BULLISH | Added 43.2% to Cipher Mining, now $482M — bullish on Bitcoin mining |
| SMR | ▲ BULLISH | Added 40.5% to NuScale Power, now $220M — bullish on small modular reactors |
| QUBT | ▲ BULLISH | Added 38.1% to Quantum Computing Inc, now $173M — bullish on quantum computing |
Key Facts
- Netflix position increased 912.5% to 390M shares worth $36.6B
- ServiceNow position increased 404.5% to 102M shares worth $15.6B
- New $5.3B position in TotalEnergies (81.9M shares)
- New $2.2B position in Qnity Electronics (27.3M shares)
- Exited Kellanova ($0), Interpublic ($0), Spirit AeroSystems ($0), and 48 other positions
- Added Brookfield Corp (+52.1% to $4.2B) and Omnicom (+64.2% to $3.1B)
- New positions in Solstice Advanced Materials ($893M) and Medline ($793M)
- Increased uranium/energy exposure: UEC (+32.2%), UUUU (+26.1%), CRGY (+34.6%)
- Increased crypto/mining exposure: CIFR (+43.2%), WULF (+37.4%), GLXY (+27.5%)
Financial Impact
Net capital deployment of approximately $60B+ into new/increased positions, with exits totaling roughly $5B
Risk Factors
- 45-day disclosure lag means positions are as of 12/31/2025 — current holdings may differ
- Vanguard is a passive index fund manager — changes may reflect index rebalancing rather than active conviction
- Some exits (e.g., Cushman Wakefield PLC → Cushman and Wakefield Ltd) appear to be corporate reorganization rather than thesis change
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 institutional 13F filing from SEC EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 13F-CHANGES Data (Synthetic) | 13f-changes-0000102909-2025-Q4 |
US Market Status
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