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8-K ·Filed Jun 2, 2026

USAR

USA Rare Earth, Inc.
BULLISH
Impact 7/10
Horizonmonths Processed4mo ago SEC0001213900-26-063832
8-K material event: Items 1.01
Actionable Insight ▲ Bullish

USAR's selection of SC for a major rare earth magnet facility with a large incentives package is a transformative catalyst for its domestic value-chain narrative. Monitor the 90-day condition — Landlord must close financing — and any updates on definitive U.S. government financing. The stock will likely reprice on the implied scale; near-term execution risk remains.

DirectionBullish
Confidencehigh
Horizonmonths
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d ⚠ clustered
USAR ▼ -38.37% at T+60d
LONG call ✗ call lost -38.37% · α vs SPY -39.49% · entry $30.70 → $18.92
Entry = T+0 close
Jun 2, 2026
via day close
T+1d
-8.86%
call -8.86% · α -8.17%
$27.98
settled 5mo ago
T+5d
-31.92%
call -31.92% · α -28.96%
$20.90
settled 5mo ago
T+20d
-34.92%
call -34.92% · α -33.35%
$19.98
settled 4mo ago
T+60d
-38.37%
call -38.37% · α -39.49%
$18.92
settled 2mo ago

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

USA Rare Earth entered into a 20-year lease for an ~800,000 sq ft rare earth magnet manufacturing facility in Blacksburg, SC (Blacksburg, SC), to be built by TC Liberty Development, and signed a 40-year FILOT incentives agreement with Cherokee County covering ~$800M projected investment and ~325 projected jobs. The press release discloses a larger ~$1.2B investment target and ~490 expected jobs, with commissioning targeted for 2028. The combined lease, incentives package, and site selection represent a major strategic milestone in USAR's domestic 'mine-to-magnet' value chain buildout.

Key Facts

  • Lease with TC Liberty Development for an ~800,000 sq ft building on ~129.9 acres; initial term 20 years with two 10-year extensions; annual base rent escalates at 2.5%.
  • FILOT Agreement with Cherokee County: 4% assessment ratio for 40 years, based on $400M minimum investment over 8 years (auto-extends to 13 at 75% of $800M projected); millage rate 360.5 mills.
  • From press release: total project investment ~$1.2B; expected to create ~490 jobs; Blacksburg facility targets 6,400 tpa NdFeB magnets and 5,000 tpa strip-cast metal/alloy; commissioning targeted for 2028.
  • Combined with Stillwater, USAR targets total domestic capacity of 10,000 tpa magnets and 10,000 tpa heavy rare earth strip-cast metal/alloy.
  • Lease is conditioned on Landlord's land acquisition and financing closing within 90 days; termination rights exist if conditions not met.
  • Company filed attachments: lease agreement (EX-10.1, redacted), incentives agreement (EX-10.2), and press release (EX-99.1).

Financial Impact

Project investment of ~$1.2B per press release, with $400M minimum qualifying investment for FILOT benefits under a 4% assessment ratio for 40 years; base rent tied to final Project Costs plus Lease Constant Percentage, with 2.5% annual escalations — dollar figures TBD via future amendment.

capital expendituretax burdenjob creationproduction capacity

Risk Factors

  • Lease contingent on Landlord's acquisition of land and closing of financing within 90 days — failure to close triggers termination.
  • Projected investment of ~$1.2B and ~490 jobs are forward-looking statements; minimum FILOT obligation is $400M, and failure to meet thresholds could reduce incentives.
  • Construction timeline (commissioning in 2028) faces typical permitting, supply chain, and cost overrun risks.
  • Company has limited operating history at commercial scale and remains dependent on raising significant capital.

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq
Sector
Metal Mining
Analyst Consensus
92% bullish (13 analysts)

Investment Themes

Materials & Mining

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 7 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
8-K Filing (Primary)0001213900-26-063832
Document: ea029312701ex10-2.htm0001213900-26-063832
Document: ea0293127-8k_usarare.htm0001213900-26-063832
Document: ea029312701ex99-1.htm0001213900-26-063832
Document: 0001213900-26-063832-index-headers.html0001213900-26-063832
Document: 0001213900-26-063832-index.html0001213900-26-063832
Document: 0001213900-26-063832.txt0001213900-26-063832
45 reports for USAR
Performance horizon
52% Hit rate @ T+5 13 of 25 directional calls Went positive at some point 21 of 25 best @ T+20▲ +71.05%Apr 9, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for USAR — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 1, 2026
25d ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$13.80 $12.63▼ −8.48%▼ −9.78%$8.91 (−35.43%)
Oct 1, 2026
25d ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$13.80 $12.63▼ −8.48%▼ −9.78%$8.91 (−35.43%)
Sep 16, 2026
5w ago
EFFECT
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$15.10 $16.78▼ −11.13%▼ −8.29%$8.91 (+40.99%)
Sep 15, 2026
5w ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 5/10
$15.10 $16.78▼ −11.13%▼ −8.29%$8.91 (+40.99%)
Sep 4, 2026
7w ago
S-3
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$17.66 $15.40▲ +12.80%▲ +11.68%$8.91 (+49.55%)
Sep 4, 2026
7w ago
S-3
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$17.66 $15.40▲ +12.80%▲ +11.68%$8.91 (+49.55%)
Sep 4, 2026
7w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$17.61 $15.71▼ −10.79%▼ −9.58%$8.91 (−49.40%)
Aug 24, 2026
9w ago
DEFA14A
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$18.29 $17.82▼ −2.57%▼ −3.04%$8.91 (−51.28%)
Aug 24, 2026
9w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$18.29 $17.82▼ −2.57%▼ −3.04%$8.91 (−51.28%)
Aug 9, 2026
11w ago
Institutional Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$19.04 $19.29▲ +1.31%▲ +1.36%$8.91 (−53.20%)
Showing 10 of 45

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Report published Jun 2, 2026