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8-K ·Filed May 5, 2026

ULCC

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc.
BEARISH
Impact 7/10
Horizonweeks Processed5mo ago SEC0001670076-26-000049
8-K Item 2.02: Earnings release
Actionable Insight ▼ Bearish

The record adjusted revenue and beat vs internal guidance are overshadowed by the massive fuel cost headwind — jet fuel is expected to jump from $2.88/gal in Q1 to $4.25/gal in Q2, driving a wider adjusted loss. The Q2 guidance of ($0.45)-($0.60) per share is significantly worse than the Q1 adjusted loss of ($0.30). Watch for the Q2 earnings call for updates on fuel hedging, capacity adjustments, and the co-brand credit card extension discussions that management cited as a liquidity support.

DirectionBearish
Confidencehigh
Horizonweeks
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d
ULCC ▲ +59.73% at T+60d
SHORT call ✗ call lost -59.73% · α vs SPY -56.99% · entry $4.37 → $6.98
Entry = T+0 close
May 5, 2026
via day close
T+1d
+9.38%
call -9.38% · α -8.00%
$4.78
settled 6mo ago
T+5d
+15.10%
call -15.10% · α -13.12%
$5.03
settled 6mo ago
T+20d
+32.04%
call -32.04% · α -27.08%
$5.77
settled 5mo ago
T+60d
+59.73%
call -59.73% · α -56.99%
$6.98
settled 3mo ago

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Frontier Airlines reported Q1 2026 GAAP net loss of $272M ($1.18/share) including $212M in non-recurring charges (early lease termination and TSA reserve). On an adjusted basis, net loss was $68M ($0.30/share), beating the company's own guidance range of ($0.32) to ($0.44) loss per share. Adjusted revenue hit a record $1.065B, up 17% YoY on 1% lower capacity, but the airline faces a severe headwind from jet fuel costs expected to nearly double to $4.25/gal in Q2, driving Q2 guidance for an adjusted loss of ($0.45) to ($0.60) per share.

Key Financial Metrics

EPS
−$1.18
est −$0.36
Revenue
$992.0M
est $1.1B · -5.5% · +8.8% YoY
Rating
miss

Key Facts

  • GAAP net loss of $272M, or $1.18 per diluted share, including $139M early lease termination charge and $73M TSA reserve charge
  • Adjusted (non-GAAP) net loss of $68M, or $0.30 per share, beating guidance of ($0.32) to ($0.44) loss per share
  • Adjusted revenue of $1.065B, an all-time record, up 17% YoY on 1% lower capacity
  • Adjusted RASM (stage-length adjusted) of 10.29 cents, up 17% YoY, at the higher end of guidance
  • Total liquidity of $974M at quarter-end, up $100M from year-end 2025
  • Q2 2026 adjusted loss per share guidance of ($0.45) to ($0.60), with jet fuel cost estimated at $4.25/gallon (up from $2.88 in Q1)
  • Expects $75M to $100M of additional charges in Q2 related to the Early Return Agreement
  • Company not providing full-year 2026 EPS guidance; only providing select items (pre-delivery deposits and capex)
  • Executed agreements to defer 69 Airbus deliveries and early terminate 24 A320neo leases

Financial Impact

Q1 adjusted net loss of $68M; Q2 guided adjusted loss of $0.45-$0.60/share; fuel cost expected to nearly double to $4.25/gal

revenueepsoperating expensesfuel costsliquidity

Risk Factors

  • Jet fuel prices at $4.25/gal in Q2 could further spike, worsening losses
  • Additional $75M-$100M in Early Return Agreement charges in Q2
  • No full-year EPS guidance provided, signaling high uncertainty
  • Adjusted CASM (ex-fuel) rose 22% YoY, indicating cost pressures beyond fuel
  • Valuation allowance against deferred tax assets limits tax benefit from losses

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq
Sector
Air Transportation, Scheduled
Analyst Consensus
0% bullish (17 analysts)

Investment Themes

Industrials & Manufacturing

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
8-K Filing (Primary)0001670076-26-000049
Document: fron-20260505.htm0001670076-26-000049
Document: 0001670076-26-000049-index-headers.html0001670076-26-000049
Document: 0001670076-26-000049-index.html0001670076-26-000049
Document: 0001670076-26-000049.txt0001670076-26-000049
8-K Data (Synthetic)0001670076-26-000049
11 reports for ULCC
Performance horizon
33% Hit rate @ T+60 1 of 3 directional calls Went positive at some point 2 of 3 best @ T+60▲ +31.44%Feb 28, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for ULCC — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 19, 2026
8d ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 1/10
$4.61awaiting T+60—$5.03 (+9.22%)
Aug 6, 2026
11w ago
Insider Cluster
MIXED ★ 5/10
$7.38awaiting T+60—$5.03 (−31.78%)
Aug 4, 2026
11w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$7.96awaiting T+60—$5.03 (−36.71%)
Jul 29, 2026
12w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$6.50 $5.30▼ −18.46%▼ −23.19%$5.03 (−22.54%)
Jul 17, 2026
14w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$6.21 $5.58▼ −10.14%▼ −14.99%$5.03 (−18.92%)
Jul 7, 2026
15w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$7.16 $5.97▼ −16.62%▼ −19.11%$5.03 (−29.68%)
Jun 30, 2026
16w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$7.73 $5.85▼ −24.32%▼ −27.19%$5.03 (−34.86%)
Jun 9, 2026
19w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$5.54 $5.74▲ +3.70%▼ −2.88%$5.03 (−9.03%)
May 5, 2026
25w ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$4.37 $6.98▼ −59.73%▼ −56.99%$5.03 (−15.22%)
Feb 28, 2026
34w ago
Institutional Cluster
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$4.04 $5.31▲ +31.44%▲ +22.11%$5.03 (+24.63%)
Showing 10 of 11

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Report published May 5, 2026