Monitor ARPU trajectory in H2 as pricing actions from H1 2026 flow through the 12-month contract base; the 5G capex cycle will continue pressuring D&A and margins near-term. Watch for TRY depreciation pressure on FX-sensitive net income and debt service costs. The maintained guidance suggests management sees operational stability, but top-line growth is modest and earnings are contracting.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Turkcell reported Q2 2026 revenue of TRY 71.8 billion (+2.5% YoY), but net income fell 5.7% to TRY 5.2 billion as EBITDA margin contracted 1.7pp to 41.8% and EBIT dropped 18.9% due to higher 5G-related depreciation. Mobile ARPU (ex-M2M) declined 3.9% YoY, though 5G-driven subscriber momentum was strong (mobile base >40M, churn improved to 1.6%). Management maintained full-year guidance for 5-7% real revenue growth and 40-42% EBITDA margin despite revising the inflation assumption to 28%.
Key Facts
- Q2 2026 revenue TRY 71.8B, +2.5% YoY (TRY 70.0B)
- Net income TRY 5.2B, -5.7% YoY (TRY 5.5B); EPS TRY 2.41 vs TRY 2.55
- EBITDA margin 41.8% vs 43.5% YoY, down 1.7pp
- EBIT TRY 9.5B, -18.9% YoY; D&A +9.1% on 5G license and network investments
- Mobile blended ARPU TRY 382.7, -5.5% YoY; postpaid ARPU -7.5% YoY
- Mobile subscribers exceeded 40M (243k net adds); churn improved to 1.6% from 2.2%
- Net debt increased to TRY 44.5B (from TRY 17.5B at Dec 2025), net leverage 0.36x
- Full-year guidance maintained: 5-7% real revenue growth, EBITDA margin 40-42%, operational capex ~25% of revenues
- Year-end inflation assumption revised to 28%
- Dividend accrual of TRY 8.8B, payable December 2026
Financial Impact
Revenue up 2.5% YoY to TRY 71.8B, net income down 5.7% to TRY 5.2B; EBITDA margin compressed 1.7pp; ARPU declining across all mobile segments
Risk Factors
- Turkish lira depreciation and elevated inflation (28% assumption) pressuring real ARPU and FX costs
- 5G license amortization and network capex weighing on EBIT and margins
- Consumer segment revenue flat and ARPU declining; competitive dynamics could delay ARPU recovery
- Net debt more than doubled from year-end 2025, increasing financial leverage
- Belarus subsidiary (BeST) exposure to geopolitical and regulatory risk
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 4 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 6-K Filing (Primary) | 0001104659-26-096535 |
| Document: 0001104659-26-096535-index-headers.html | 0001104659-26-096535 |
| Document: 0001104659-26-096535-index.html | 0001104659-26-096535 |
| Document: 0001104659-26-096535.txt | 0001104659-26-096535 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 23, 2026 3d ago | 6-K | $4.61 | awaiting T+20 | — | $4.58 (−0.65%) |
Oct 22, 2026 4d ago | 6-K | $4.78 | awaiting T+20 | — | $4.58 (−4.18%) |
Oct 20, 2026 6d ago | 6-K | $4.97 | awaiting T+20 | — | $4.58 (−7.85%) |
Oct 9, 2026 17d ago | 6-K | $5.02 | awaiting T+20 | — | $4.58 (−8.76%) |
Sep 25, 2026 4w ago | 6-K | $5.17 $4.61 | ▼ −10.83% | ▼ −9.36% | $4.58 (−11.41%) |
Sep 25, 2026 4w ago | 6-K | $5.17 $4.61 | ▼ −10.83% | ▼ −9.36% | $4.58 (−11.41%) |
Sep 24, 2026 4w ago | 6-K | $5.13 $4.78 | ▼ −6.82% | ▼ −6.40% | $4.58 (−10.72%) |
Sep 24, 2026 4w ago | 6-K | $5.13 $4.78 | ▼ −6.82% | ▼ −6.40% | $4.58 (−10.72%) |
Sep 22, 2026 4w ago | 6-K | $5.19 $4.97 | ▼ −4.24% | ▼ −3.68% | $4.58 (−11.75%) |
Sep 1, 2026 7w ago | 6-K | $5.02 | awaiting T+20 | — | $4.58 (−8.76%) |
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