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S-4/A ·Filed Oct 20, 2026

TEM

Tempus AI, Inc.
NEUTRAL
Impact 5/10
Horizonweeks Processed7d 8h ago SEC0001193125-26-426683
Notable filing: S-4/A
Actionable Insight • Neutral

The merger is on track with regulatory clearances obtained and a scheduled stockholder vote. The key remaining risk is Tempus stock price volatility — if TEM trades below $46.00 at closing, Personalis can walk away. Monitor TEM price action and the November 30 vote outcome.

DirectionNeutral
Confidencehigh
Horizonweeks
Latest settled — T+1d
TEM ▼ -5.83% at T+1d
NEUTRAL call -5.83% · α vs SPY -4.65% · entry $67.76 → $63.81
Next anchor: T+5d due 16h ago
Latest observation: T+2 +0.29% FF3 residual α
Entry = T+0 close
Oct 20, 2026
via day close
T+1d
-5.83%
call -5.83% · α -4.65%
$63.81
settled 7d ago
T+5d
Pending
due 16h ago
T+20d
Pending
in 20d
T+60d
Pending
in 3mo

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Tempus AI filed Amendment No. 2 to its S-4 registration statement for the acquisition of Personalis, Inc. The merger consideration is $16.25 per Personalis share, payable in Tempus Class A common stock (with a floating exchange ratio and a floor of 0.3356 shares) and up to 50% cash at Tempus' election. The Personalis special stockholder meeting is scheduled for November 30, 2026, and the HSR waiting period expired on October 2, 2026, clearing a key regulatory condition. The merger is a going-private transaction that will delist Personalis from Nasdaq.

Key Facts

  • Merger consideration: $16.25 per share of Personalis common stock, payable in Tempus Class A common stock (floating exchange ratio; floor of 0.3356 shares if Tempus stock price ≤ $48.42) and up to 50% cash at Tempus' election.
  • Personalis special stockholder meeting to vote on the merger is scheduled for November 30, 2026; record date is October 15, 2026.
  • HSR waiting period expired on October 2, 2026, without issue; UK CMA confirmed no further questions on August 13, 2026.
  • Tempus and Merck (combined ~25% of Personalis voting power) have agreed to vote in favor of the merger.
  • Personalis has the right to terminate if Tempus stock price falls below $46.00 per share at closing.
  • Termination fee of $76,806,179 payable by Personalis in certain circumstances; reverse termination fee of same amount payable by Tempus for antitrust-related failures.
  • The merger is expected to close in late 2026 or early 2027.
  • Tax opinions from Latham & Watkins and Cooley LLP confirm the merger qualifies as a tax-free reorganization under Section 368(a) of the Code.

Financial Impact

Implied equity value of $16.25 per Personalis share; total stock consideration up to ~38.9 million Tempus shares (max Exchange Ratio 0.3356, no cash election). Cash consideration up to $762.4 million if Tempus elects 50% cash.

revenueepsdilution

Risk Factors

  • Tempus stock price falling below $46.00 per share, triggering Personalis' termination right.
  • Stockholder vote failure — requires majority of outstanding shares; Merck and Tempus combined ~25% but need additional ~25% of other holders.
  • Integration risk and potential failure to realize synergies post-merger.
  • Potential shareholder litigation challenging the merger.

Investment Themes

Software & IT

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 9 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
S-4/A Filing (Primary)0001193125-26-426683
Document: d864810dex81.htm0001193125-26-426683
Document: d864810dex82.htm0001193125-26-426683
Document: d864810dex991.htm0001193125-26-426683
Document: d864810dex232.htm0001193125-26-426683
Document: d864810dex231.htm0001193125-26-426683
Document: 0001193125-26-426683-index-headers.html0001193125-26-426683
Document: 0001193125-26-426683-index.html0001193125-26-426683
Document: 0001193125-26-426683.txt0001193125-26-426683
38 reports for TEM
Performance horizon
88% Hit rate @ T+60 7 of 8 directional calls Went positive at some point 15 of 17 best @ T+60▲ +53.09%Jul 30, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for TEM — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 27, 2026
today
144
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$71.67awaiting T+60—$72.15 (+0.67%)
Oct 23, 2026
4d ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$67.62awaiting T+60—$72.15 (+6.71%)
Oct 22, 2026
6d ago
EFFECT
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$63.81awaiting T+60—$72.15 (+13.07%)
Oct 20, 2026
7d ago
S-4/A
NEUTRAL ★ 5/10
$67.76awaiting T+60—$72.15 (+6.48%)
Sep 29, 2026
29d ago
Insider Cluster
BEARISH ★ 5/10
$81.90awaiting T+60—$72.15 (+11.90%)
Sep 24, 2026
4w ago
Insider Cluster
BEARISH ★ 5/10
$85.01awaiting T+60—$72.15 (+15.13%)
Sep 18, 2026
5w ago
Insider Cluster
BEARISH ★ 4/10
$78.03awaiting T+60—$72.15 (+7.54%)
Sep 17, 2026
5w ago
144
BEARISH ★ 5/10
$77.84awaiting T+60—$72.15 (+7.31%)
Sep 3, 2026
7w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$64.62awaiting T+60—$72.15 (+11.65%)
Sep 3, 2026
7w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$64.62awaiting T+60—$72.15 (+11.65%)
Showing 10 of 38

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Report published Oct 20, 2026