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8-K ·Filed Oct 7, 2026

TCBX

Third Coast Bancshares, Inc.
BULLISH
Impact 6/10
Horizonmonths Processed19d 16h ago SEC0001193125-26-416163
8-K context-dependent: Items 7.01, 8.01
Actionable Insight ▲ Bullish

Monitor the S-4 filing for detailed pro forma financials and shareholder vote timeline. The 2.5-year TBV earnback and ~14% EPS accretion are attractive relative to recent bank M&A, but integration risk and regulatory approval timelines are key execution variables.

DirectionBullish
Confidencehigh
Horizonmonths
Latest settled — T+5d ⚠ clustered
TCBX ▼ -0.17% at T+5d
LONG call ✗ call lost -0.17% · α vs SPY +0.81% · entry $41.27 → $41.20
Next anchor: T+20d in 8d
Latest observation: T+12 -10.74% FF3 residual α
Entry = T+0 close
Oct 7, 2026
via day close
T+1d
+1.21%
call +1.21% · α +1.63%
$41.77
settled 19d ago
T+5d
-0.17%
call -0.17% · α +0.81%
$41.20
settled 13d ago
T+20d
Pending
in 8d
T+60d
Pending
in 2mo

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Third Coast Bancshares (TCBX) announced a definitive agreement to acquire Great Plains Bancshares in an all-stock transaction valued at approximately $239.6 million. The deal will create a combined entity with ~$9 billion in assets, expand TCBX's North Texas presence, and establish entry into Oklahoma. The transaction is expected to close in early Q1 2027, subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals.

Key Facts

  • All-stock transaction valued at approximately $239.6 million based on TCBX's closing price on October 6, 2026.
  • TCBX to issue 5,570,352 shares of common stock; pro forma ownership ~78% TCBX / 22% Great Plains.
  • Combined pro forma assets of ~$9.0 billion, gross loans of ~$7.3 billion, and deposits of ~$7.8 billion.
  • Transaction priced at 1.56x tangible book value, 9.3x LTM EPS, and 6.1x LTM EPS with fully phased-in cost savings.
  • Targeted cost savings of $17.1 million (20% of Great Plains' 2027E non-interest expense), phased in 50% in 2027.
  • Estimated ~14% EPS accretion in 2028, ~(5)% TBV dilution with a 2.5-year earnback period.
  • Estimated one-time transaction expenses of ~$21.0 million after-tax.
  • Expected to close in early Q1 2027, subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals.

Financial Impact

Transaction valued at ~$239.6 million; ~14% EPS accretion in 2028; ~(5)% TBV dilution with 2.5-year earnback; ~$17.1 million in annual cost savings.

epstangible book valuecost savingsassetsdeposits

Risk Factors

  • Regulatory and shareholder approval delays or conditions could push closing beyond early Q1 2027.
  • Integration risk: achieving $17.1 million in cost savings and retaining Great Plains' deposit base and commercial bankers.
  • Dilution from 5.57 million new shares (~22% pro forma ownership) may pressure near-term TBV.
  • Potential adverse market or credit conditions affecting the combined loan portfolio (~$7.3 billion gross loans).

Investment Themes

Traditional Finance

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 8 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
8-K Filing (Primary)0001193125-26-416163
Document: d146780dex992.htm0001193125-26-416163
Document: d146780dex991.htm0001193125-26-416163
Document: d146780dex994.htm0001193125-26-416163
Document: d146780dex993.htm0001193125-26-416163
Document: 0001193125-26-416163-index-headers.html0001193125-26-416163
Document: 0001193125-26-416163-index.html0001193125-26-416163
Document: 0001193125-26-416163.txt0001193125-26-416163
16 reports for TCBX
Performance horizon
100% Hit rate @ T+1 6 of 6 directional calls Went positive at some point 6 of 6 best @ T+20▲ +6.84%Jul 22, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for TCBX — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 23, 2026
3d ago
425
NEUTRAL ★ 5/10
$39.80awaiting T+1—$40.12 (+0.80%)
Oct 21, 2026
5d ago
425
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$40.00 $39.80▲ +0.50%▼ −0.02%$40.12 (−0.30%)
Oct 21, 2026
5d ago
8-K
MIXED ★ 6/10
$40.00 $39.80▼ −0.50%▲ +0.02%$40.12 (+0.30%)
Oct 13, 2026
13d ago
425
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$41.20 $41.40▲ +0.49%▲ +0.20%$40.12 (−2.62%)
Oct 13, 2026
13d ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$41.20 $41.40▲ +0.49%▲ +0.20%$40.12 (−2.62%)
Oct 9, 2026
17d ago
425
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$41.70 $41.78▲ +0.19%▲ +0.20%$40.12 (−3.79%)
Oct 9, 2026
17d ago
425
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$41.70 $41.78▲ +0.19%▲ +0.20%$40.12 (−3.79%)
Oct 7, 2026
19d ago
425
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$41.27 $41.77▲ +1.21%▲ +1.63%$40.12 (−2.79%)
Oct 7, 2026
19d ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$41.27 $41.77▲ +1.21%▲ +1.63%$40.12 (−2.79%)
Sep 18, 2026
5w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$44.05 $43.56▼ −1.11%▼ −1.10%$40.12 (−8.92%)
Showing 10 of 16

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens Wed (10h 6m)

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Report published Oct 7, 2026