The earnings miss and lowered full-year EBITDA guidance are the primary signals. The stock is likely to trade down on the EPS miss and margin compression, despite a slight revenue beat. Watch for further commentary on freight cost recovery and pricing power in the earnings call. The narrowing of guidance to the lower end of the prior range suggests management sees persistent cost headwinds.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Smurfit Westrock reported Q2 2026 results that missed consensus estimates on both EPS and revenue. Adjusted Basic EPS of $0.35 was a 16.9% miss vs the $0.42 consensus, while revenue of $8.031B slightly beat the $7.93B estimate. The company guided Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA to approximately $1.3B and narrowed full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $4.9B-$5.1B, down from the prior range of $5.0B-$5.3B, signaling ongoing cost headwinds from freight and energy that are pressuring margins despite a strong demand backdrop.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q2 2026 Adjusted Basic EPS of $0.35 missed consensus of $0.42 by 16.9%
- Q2 2026 Net Sales of $8,031M vs consensus $7,930M (slight beat)
- Full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance narrowed to $4.9B-$5.1B, down from prior $5.0B-$5.3B
- Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guided to approximately $1.3B
- Adjusted EBITDA margin contracted to 14.2% from 15.3% YoY
- North America Adjusted EBITDA fell to $704M from $752M YoY
- Freight costs increased ~$90M and energy costs ~$22M in Q2 vs prior year
- Quarterly dividend maintained at $0.4523 per share
Financial Impact
Q2 Adjusted Basic EPS of $0.35 missed consensus by $0.07; full-year EBITDA guidance reduced by ~$150M at midpoint
Risk Factors
- Continued freight and energy cost inflation not fully recovered through pricing
- North America margin compression from higher input costs and restructuring charges
- Potential further guidance cuts if demand softens or cost recovery lags
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 7 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001104659-26-087794 |
| Document: tm2621489d1_ex99-2.htm | 0001104659-26-087794 |
| Document: tm2621489d1_8k.htm | 0001104659-26-087794 |
| Document: 0001104659-26-087794-index-headers.html | 0001104659-26-087794 |
| Document: 0001104659-26-087794-index.html | 0001104659-26-087794 |
| Document: 0001104659-26-087794.txt | 0001104659-26-087794 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001104659-26-087794 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jul 29, 2026 12w ago | 8-K | $48.26 $42.43 | ▲ +12.08% | ▲ +16.81% | $42.24 (+12.47%) |
Mar 11, 2026 32w ago | DEFA14A | $42.20 $42.12 | ▼ −0.19% | ▼ −11.71% | $42.24 (+0.09%) |
Feb 27, 2026 34w ago | 8-K | $47.01 $39.20 | ▼ −16.61% | ▼ −26.00% | $42.24 (−10.15%) |
US Market Status
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