The strong 2026 guidance, particularly the 80% Adjusted EBITDA growth, suggests significant operating leverage is being realized. Traders should monitor the company's ability to maintain its high take rates and margins as it scales. The end of the lock-up period could lead to short-term selling pressure, but the robust fundamentals may attract new investors.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
StubHub reported strong 2025 results with $9.2 billion in Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS), up 6% year-over-year (18% excluding the prior-year impact of Taylor Swift's Eras Tour), and $1.7 billion in revenue. The company significantly strengthened its balance sheet by reducing debt by $900 million and provided robust 2026 guidance, forecasting GMS of $9.9-$10.1 billion and Adjusted EBITDA of $400-$420 million, representing an 80% growth. The lock-up period from its IPO has also ended, allowing for the release of previously restricted shares.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Full Year 2025 GMS was $9.2 billion, a 6% year-over-year increase (18% underlying growth excluding the Eras Tour).
- Full Year 2025 revenue was $1.7 billion, with Adjusted EBITDA of $232 million and Free Cash Flow of $158 million.
- The company reduced its debt by $900 million in 2025, significantly improving its balance sheet.
- 2026 guidance is for GMS of $9.9-$10.1 billion and Adjusted EBITDA of $400-$420 million, an 80% increase from 2025.
- The lock-up period from the IPO has ended, allowing for the release of previously restricted shares.
Financial Impact
The company is guiding for an 80% year-over-year increase in Adjusted EBITDA, from $232 million in 2025 to $400-$420 million in 2026. Revenue is expected to grow to $1.9-$2.0 billion based on a consistent 19% take rate on GMS.
Risk Factors
- The end of the lock-up period could lead to significant share dilution and downward pressure on the stock price as insiders and early investors sell their shares.
- The company's growth is heavily dependent on the live events market, which can be volatile and subject to external factors like pandemics or economic downturns.
- The guidance is based on a consistent 19% take rate, which could be challenged by increased competition or changes in consumer behavior.
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001628280-26-014651 |
| Document: a992lettertostockholders.htm | 0001628280-26-014651 |
| Document: stub-20260304.htm | 0001628280-26-014651 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-014651-index-headers.html | 0001628280-26-014651 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-014651-index.html | 0001628280-26-014651 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-014651.txt | 0001628280-26-014651 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 20, 2026 6d ago | 8-K | $5.94 | awaiting T+20 | — | $5.63 (−5.22%) |
Oct 14, 2026 11d ago | 8-K | $5.76 | awaiting T+20 | — | $5.63 (−2.26%) |
Sep 4, 2026 7w ago | Insider Cluster | $6.11 $5.73 | ▼ −6.22% | ▼ −7.93% | $5.63 (−7.86%) |
Aug 28, 2026 8w ago | Insider Cluster | $6.38 $5.31 | ▼ −16.77% | ▼ −16.40% | $5.63 (−11.76%) |
Aug 27, 2026 8w ago | Insider Cluster | $6.55 $5.30 | ▲ +19.08% | ▲ +19.34% | $5.63 (+14.05%) |
Aug 27, 2026 8w ago | Insider Cluster | $6.55 $5.30 | ▲ +19.08% | ▲ +18.60% | $5.63 (+14.05%) |
Aug 25, 2026 8w ago | Insider Cluster | $6.58 $5.39 | ▼ −18.09% | ▼ −18.31% | $5.63 (−14.44%) |
Aug 20, 2026 9w ago | Insider Cluster | $6.68 $5.95 | ▲ +10.93% | ▲ +10.40% | $5.63 (+15.72%) |
Jul 9, 2026 15w ago | Insider Cluster | $11.10 $8.95 | ▼ −19.37% | ▼ −21.79% | $5.63 (−49.28%) |
Jul 6, 2026 15w ago | Insider Cluster | $13.53 $8.98 | ▼ −33.63% | ▼ −34.96% | $5.63 (−58.39%) |
US Market Status
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