The revenue beat and raised guidance are positive catalysts, but watch for Q3 sequential EBITDA decline and softening Gulf Coast demand. The 20-year commitments on growth projects add long-term visibility.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
South Bow reported Q2 2026 revenue of $546M (+11.9% vs $487.8M consensus) and EPS of $0.44 (+2.3% beat). Raised 2026 normalized EBITDA guidance to $1,040M and distributable cash flow guidance to $665M, driven by strong demand on the U.S. Gulf Coast segment. However, management guided Q3 2026 normalized EBITDA ~10% lower sequentially as Cushing differentials tighten.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q2 2026 revenue $546M vs consensus $487.8M (beat 11.9%)
- EPS $0.44 vs consensus $0.43 (beat 2.3%)
- Raised 2026 normalized EBITDA guidance to $1,040M (+2%/-1% range); prior was $1,030M
- Raised 2026 distributable cash flow guidance to $665M (±2%); prior was $655M
- Q3 2026 normalized EBITDA expected ~$252M, ~10% lower than Q2 $280M
- Secured 20-year binding commitments from 9 customers for 465k bbl/d on Prairie Connector / Liberty Bridge
- Net debt-to-normalized EBITDA improved to 4.4x from 4.7x in Q1
- Quarterly dividend maintained at $0.50/share
- Board chair transition: Hal Kvisle stepped down, George Lewis appointed Chair
Financial Impact
Revenue beat of $58.2M (+11.9%); normalized EBITDA guidance raised $10M; distributable cash flow guidance raised $10M
Risk Factors
- Q3 2026 normalized EBITDA guided ~10% lower sequentially as Cushing differentials tighten
- Demand for uncommitted Keystone capacity remains tempered with WCSB supply below total egress
- Pre-FID development costs $65M in 2026 for Prairie Connector and Liberty Bridge may weigh on cash flow
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 press release from GlobeNewswire.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| PRESS-RELEASE Data (Synthetic) | press-3339816 |
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 7, 2026 19d ago | 6-K | $33.84 | awaiting T+20 | — | $35.69 (+5.47%) |
Aug 5, 2026 11w ago | 6-K | $35.34 $37.37 | ▲ +5.74% | ▲ +5.14% | $35.69 (+0.99%) |
Aug 5, 2026 11w ago | Press Release | $35.34 $37.37 | ▲ +5.74% | ▲ +5.14% | $35.69 (+0.99%) |
Jul 8, 2026 15w ago | 6-K | $36.37 $35.34 | ▼ −2.83% | ▼ −5.07% | $35.69 (−1.87%) |
May 29, 2026 21w ago | 6-K | $35.96 $35.88 | ▼ −0.22% | ▲ +1.57% | $35.69 (−0.75%) |
May 7, 2026 24w ago | 6-K | $34.71 $36.86 | ▲ +6.19% | ▲ +6.17% | $35.69 (+2.82%) |
May 7, 2026 24w ago | Press Release | $34.71 $36.86 | ▲ +6.19% | ▲ +6.17% | $35.69 (+2.82%) |
Mar 5, 2026 33w ago | Press Release | $32.96 $33.20 | ▲ +0.72% | ▲ +2.77% | $35.69 (+8.28%) |
Feb 28, 2026 34w ago | Institutional Cluster | $32.37 $33.76 | ▲ +4.29% | ▲ +12.23% | $35.69 (+10.25%) |
US Market Status
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