The sharp decline in Senior Medicare Advantage policies (-15% approved) and Q4 revenue miss are near-term headwinds, but the FY2027 operating cash flow guidance of $60M+ (nearly double FY2026) signals improving cash generation from Healthcare Services scale and cost efficiencies. Traders should watch the AEP season for policy volume recovery and monitor whether the $30M+ in annual cost savings materialize as guided. The stock may trade on cash flow narrative vs top-line contraction.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
SelectQuote reported Q4 FY2026 revenue of $321.7M (down 6.8% YoY from $345.1M) and a GAAP net loss of $16.8M vs net income of $12.9M a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA improved to $11.9M from $2.7M. FY2027 guidance calls for revenue of $1.35B-$1.45B (down ~14% at midpoint) and operating cash flow of $60M+, nearly doubling FY2026's $31.9M. The Senior segment saw a 12% revenue decline and a 15% drop in approved Medicare Advantage policies, while Healthcare Services revenue also fell 10% YoY. The mixed picture of improving cash flow guidance against declining top-line and policy volumes warrants a neutral-to-cautious view.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q4 FY2026 revenue $321.7M vs $345.1M YoY (-6.8%)
- GAAP net loss of $16.8M vs net income of $12.9M YoY
- Adjusted EBITDA $11.9M vs $2.7M YoY
- FY2027 revenue guidance $1.35B-$1.45B (midpoint ~$1.4B, down ~14% from FY2026's $1.618B)
- FY2027 Adjusted EBITDA guidance $90M-$115M (midpoint $102.5M, down ~6% from FY2026's $109.1M)
- FY2027 operating cash flow guidance $60M+ (vs FY2026 $31.9M)
- Senior segment Q4 revenue $72.5M vs $82.5M YoY (-12%)
- Senior approved Medicare Advantage policies Q4: 72,180 vs 85,344 YoY (-15%)
- Healthcare Services Q4 revenue $193.5M vs $214.0M YoY (-10%)
- Life segment Q4 revenue $47.9M vs $48.0M YoY (flat)
- Consolidated cash used in operations Q4: $3.3M vs $37.5M used YoY
- FY2026 full-year revenue $1.618B vs $1.527B (+6%)
- FY2026 full-year net income $62.2M vs $47.6M (+31%)
- FY2026 full-year Adjusted EBITDA $109.1M vs $126.3M (-14%)
- FY2026 full-year operating cash flow $31.9M vs -$11.7M YoY
- Total SelectRx members 109,039 as of June 30, 2026 (flat vs 108,018 a year ago)
- Revenue to CAC multiple improved to 6.8x from 6.1x on a trailing 12-month basis
Financial Impact
Q4 revenue miss of ~$31.7M vs consensus of $353.4M; GAAP EPS of -$0.19 vs consensus of -$0.14 (miss of $0.05). FY2027 guidance implies ~14% revenue decline at midpoint.
Risk Factors
- Continued decline in Medicare Advantage policy volumes due to carrier benefit changes
- FY2027 revenue guidance midpoint of $1.4B implies ~14% YoY decline, signaling structural headwinds
- GAAP net loss in Q4 and negative EPS attributable to common shareholders
- Preferred stock liquidation preference grew to $423.2M, increasing senior claims on equity value
- SelectRx membership was flat YoY (109,039 vs 108,018), suggesting pharmacy growth plateauing
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 4 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001794783-26-000056 |
| Document: 0001794783-26-000056-index.html | 0001794783-26-000056 |
| Document: 0001794783-26-000056.txt | 0001794783-26-000056 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001794783-26-000056 |
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 30, 2026 26d ago | DEFA14A | $0.4260 | awaiting T+60 | — | $0.3270 (−23.24%) |
Sep 30, 2026 26d ago | DEF 14A | $0.4260 | awaiting T+60 | — | $0.3270 (−23.24%) |
Aug 25, 2026 9w ago | 8-K | $0.5483 | awaiting T+60 | — | $0.3270 (−40.36%) |
Jun 11, 2026 19w ago | Institutional Cluster | $0.9165 $0.5362 | ▲ +41.49% | ▲ +45.89% | $0.3270 (+64.32%) |
May 5, 2026 25w ago | 8-K | $1.24 $0.7266 | ▼ −41.40% | ▼ −44.14% | $0.3270 (−73.63%) |
US Market Status
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