The Compass Point initiate adds bullish cover but heavy insider selling by the Chairman and CEO introduces significant divergence. Traders should wait for insider buying or a clearer catalyst before adding to long positions, and monitor the elevated short interest for a potential squeeze if estimates continue to trend higher.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Compass Point initiated coverage of Schwab (SCHW) with a Buy rating and a $135 price target, representing 28.3% upside from the $105.24 close. The firm has a 56% accuracy rate on 199 scored calls with an average return of 4.5%, placing it in the middle tier among covering analysts. Consensus is heavily bullish: 24 of 28 analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, 3 Hold, 1 Sell. The mean price target is $124.47, median $126, with a high of $145 and low of $91 — Compass Point’s $135 sits above the mean. EPS estimates have been revised upward over the past 30 days with 2 revisions up and 0 down for the current and next fiscal year. However, Chairman Charles Schwab sold $10.1M and CEO Walter Bettinger sold $9.8M in shares on July 28-29, a concentrated insider selling cluster that typically carries a bearish signal. Institutional flows are mixed, with a large add from Banco Santander and a doubled position from Kestra Advisory offset by trims from Swiss Life and Private Advisor Group. The bullish analyst call is partially counterbalanced by insider selling, warranting a mixed near-term view for active traders.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Of 28 analysts, 7 rate Strong Buy, 17 Buy (total 86% bullish), 3 Hold (11%), 1 Sell (4%). Consensus is decidedly bullish, with only one analyst on the sell side.
Mean PT $124.47, median $126, high $145, low $91. Current price $105.24 implies 18.3% upside to the mean. Compass Point’s $135 is above both the mean and median targets.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Compass Point | initiate | Buy | $135.00 |
| 2026-07-27 | Morgan Stanley | maintain | Overweight | $136.00 |
| 2026-07-23 | Argus Research | maintain | Buy | $114.00 |
| 2026-07-22 | UBS | maintain | Buy | — |
| 2026-07-22 | Barclays | maintain | Overweight | $125.00 |
| 2026-07-20 | BMO Capital | downgrade | Market Perform | $105.00 |
| 2026-07-15 | Piper Sandler | maintain | Neutral | $112.00 |
| 2026-07-10 | Morgan Stanley | maintain | Overweight | $133.00 |
| 2026-07-09 | Barclays | maintain | Overweight | $122.00 |
| 2026-07-08 | UBS | maintain | Buy | $122.00 |
Over the past 30 days, there has been 1 upgrade (Compass Point initial Buy) and 1 downgrade (BMO to Market Perform). EPS revisions are positive: +1 revision up in the last 7 days and +2 up in the last 30 days for 0q, +1q, 0y, and +1y, with no downward revisions. Estimates are being raised.
Firm Track Record — Compass Point
Compass Point accuracy: 56% on 199 calls | avg return: 4.5%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | 100% | 3/3 | 15% | top tier |
| Wells Fargo | 71% | 5/7 | 9.1% | top tier |
| Citigroup | 71% | 5/7 | 5.6% | top tier |
| Deutsche Bank | 71% | 5/7 | 6.4% | top tier |
| Morgan Stanley | 69% | 9/13 | 7.6% | top tier |
| JMP Securities | 67% | 8/12 | 6.7% | top tier |
| Truist Securities | 67% | 6/9 | 8.8% | top tier |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | 63% | 5/8 | 6.7% | top tier |
| Piper Sandler | 57% | 4/7 | 6.9% | above average |
| JP Morgan | 57% | 4/7 | 4.7% | above average |
Compass Point is accurate 56% of the time (111 correct out of 199 calls) with a 4.5% average return. Among 15 firms covering SCHW, the best accuracy is Goldman Sachs (100% on 3 calls), Wells Fargo (71% on 7), and Citigroup (71% on 7). The worst are TD Cowen and UBS (25% each on 4 calls). Compass Point ranks in the middle tier.
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1y | $7.83 | $7.11 — $8.47 | $31.5B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| 0y | $6.49 | $6.36 — $6.61 | $28.3B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| 0q | $1.67 | $1.63 — $1.73 | $7.2B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| +1q | $1.79 | $1.68 — $1.86 | $7.5B | ↑1 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider selling is heavy and concentrated: Chairman Charles Schwarb sold $10.1M on July 29; CEO Walter Bettinger sold $9.8M total across three trades on July 28; EVP Dennis Howard sold $2.9M on July 28. This cluster contradicts the bullish analyst signal. Congressional activity is minor (Rep. Ro Khanna bought $1k-$15k on June 2). Institutional changes are mixed: Banco Santander added $38.5M (+71.7%), Kestra Advisory doubled its position, while Swiss Life trimmed 42.7% and Private Advisor Group trimmed 40.8%. Short interest stands at 61.8% of TRF volume, indicating elevated bearish positioning.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 15, 2026 12d ago | 8-K | $91.96 | awaiting T+20 | — | $89.30 (−2.89%) |
Oct 12, 2026 15d ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $97.06 | awaiting T+20 | — | $89.30 (−8.00%) |
Oct 2, 2026 25d ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $96.70 | awaiting T+20 | — | $89.30 (−7.65%) |
Sep 2, 2026 7w ago | Insider Cluster | $110.38 $96.70 | ▼ −12.39% | ▼ −11.21% | $89.30 (−19.10%) |
Aug 31, 2026 8w ago | Insider Cluster | $108.28 $97.74 | ▼ −9.73% | ▼ −10.05% | $89.30 (−17.53%) |
Aug 31, 2026 8w ago | Insider Cluster | $108.28 $97.74 | ▼ −9.73% | ▼ −10.05% | $89.30 (−17.53%) |
Aug 27, 2026 8w ago | Insider Cluster | $110.16 $98.30 | ▼ −10.77% | ▼ −11.03% | $89.30 (−18.94%) |
Aug 27, 2026 8w ago | Insider Cluster | $110.16 $98.30 | ▼ −10.77% | ▼ −11.03% | $89.30 (−18.94%) |
Aug 26, 2026 8w ago | Insider Cluster | $108.05 $99.49 | ▼ −7.92% | ▼ −7.41% | $89.30 (−17.35%) |
Aug 18, 2026 10w ago | Insider Cluster | $110.88 $107.79 | ▼ −2.79% | ▼ −1.27% | $89.30 (−19.46%) |
US Market Status
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