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EFFECT ·Filed Aug 28, 2026

SAFX

XCF Global, Inc.
BEARISH
Impact 8/10
Horizondays Processed1mo ago SEC9999999995-26-002776
IPO/offering going effective
Actionable Insight ▼ Bearish

The effectiveness of this massive resale registration creates immediate overhang risk. Expect selling pressure as registered shares become tradeable. The company's distressed fundamentals (going-concern, loan default) amplify the bearish case.

DirectionBearish
Confidencehigh
Horizondays
Latest settled — T+20d
SAFX ▲ +3.51% at T+20d
SHORT call ✗ call lost -3.51% · α vs SPY -3.99% · entry $0.3591 → $0.3717
Next anchor: T+60d in 28d
Latest observation: T+39 +40.69% FF3 residual α
Entry = T+0 close
Aug 28, 2026
via day close
T+1d
-0.97%
call +0.97% · α +0.68%
$0.3556
settled 8w ago
T+5d
+9.50%
call -9.50% · α -9.39%
$0.3932
settled 7w ago
T+20d
+3.51%
call -3.51% · α -3.99%
$0.3717
settled 28d ago
T+60d
Pending
in 28d

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

The SEC declared effective XCF Global's S-1 registration statement (File No. 333-291024) on August 27, 2026, covering the resale of 212,770,019 shares of Class A common stock by selling stockholders — representing ~52% of current shares outstanding. This effectiveness removes the final regulatory barrier to the massive share overhang becoming tradeable, which is bearish given the company's pre-revenue status, going-concern warning, and severe financial distress.

Key Facts

  • EFFECT notice filed August 27, 2026, effective same day for S-1 File No. 333-291024
  • Registration covers 212,770,019 shares of Class A common stock for resale by selling stockholders
  • Shares represent ~52% of current shares outstanding per the prior S-1 filing
  • Company is pre-revenue with a single operating facility, defaulted on its primary loan and ground lease, and has a going-concern warning

Financial Impact

Potential dilution overhang of ~52% of current shares outstanding becoming tradeable; no offering proceeds to the company as this is a resale registration by selling stockholders

dilutionshare price

Risk Factors

  • Massive dilution from 212.8M registered shares hitting the market
  • Company is pre-revenue with going-concern warning and loan defaults

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq
Sector
Industrial Organic Chemicals
Analyst Consensus
75% bullish (8 analysts)

Investment Themes

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 3 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
EFFECT Filing (Primary)9999999995-26-002776
Document: 9999999995-26-002776-index.html9999999995-26-002776
Document: 9999999995-26-002776.txt9999999995-26-002776
34 reports for SAFX
Performance horizon
63% Hit rate @ T+60 5 of 8 directional calls Went positive at some point 14 of 20 best @ T+60▲ +59.88%Jul 22, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for SAFX — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 26, 2026
today
SC 13D/A
BEARISH ★ 6/10
—awaiting T+60——
Oct 26, 2026
today
DEF 14A
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$0.1567awaiting T+60—$0.1568 (−0.06%)
Oct 26, 2026
today
3
NEUTRAL ★ 1/10
$0.1550awaiting T+60—$0.1568 (+1.16%)
Oct 26, 2026
today
3
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$0.1479awaiting T+60—$0.1568 (+6.02%)
Oct 23, 2026
3d ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$0.1560awaiting T+60—$0.1568 (+0.51%)
Oct 22, 2026
3d ago
8-K
MIXED ★ 6/10
$0.1598awaiting T+60—$0.1568 (−1.88%)
Oct 16, 2026
9d ago
SC 13D/A
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$0.1565awaiting T+60—$0.1568 (+0.19%)
Sep 24, 2026
4w ago
425
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$0.3731awaiting T+60—$0.1568 (+57.97%)
Sep 23, 2026
4w ago
EFFECT
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$0.4253awaiting T+60—$0.1568 (+63.13%)
Sep 22, 2026
4w ago
EFFECT
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$0.4586awaiting T+60—$0.1568 (+65.81%)
Showing 10 of 34

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens Tue (16h 38m)

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Report published Aug 28, 2026