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DEFA14A ·Filed Jul 24, 2026

SAFT

SAFETY INSURANCE GROUP INC
BULLISH
Impact 7/10
Horizonmonths Processed3mo ago SEC0001104659-26-086493
Proxy solicitation materials
Actionable Insight ▲ Bullish

Monitor the spread between SAFT's current trading price and the $105 deal price; the spread will tighten as regulatory and shareholder approvals are secured. Key near-term catalysts: filing of the proxy statement, HSR clearance, and shareholder vote. The long-stop date is July 23, 2027, with automatic extension to January 23, 2028 for regulatory delays.

DirectionBullish
Confidencehigh
Horizonmonths
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d ⚠ clustered
SAFT ▲ +0.63% at T+60d
LONG call ✓ call won +0.63% · α vs SPY -3.10% · entry $103.20 → $103.85
Entry = T+0 close
Jul 24, 2026
via day close
T+1d
-0.19%
call -0.19% · α -0.22%
$103.00
settled 3mo ago
T+5d
-0.01%
call -0.01% · α -0.38%
$103.19
settled 3mo ago
T+20d
+0.38%
call +0.38% · α -3.25%
$103.59
settled 2mo ago
T+60d
+0.63%
call +0.63% · α -3.10%
$103.85
settled 8d ago

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Safety Insurance Group (SAFT) has entered into a definitive merger agreement to be acquired by MAPFRE U.S.A. Corp., a subsidiary of MAPFRE S.A., for $105.00 per share in cash, representing a substantial premium to the pre-announcement market price. The transaction is unanimously approved by SAFT's board and supported by voting agreements from directors and officers holding shares. The merger is subject to shareholder approval, regulatory clearances (HSR Act, Massachusetts Insurance Commissioner), and customary closing conditions, with a target close by July 2027 (extendable to January 2028).

Key Financial Metrics

Vote
merger approval

Key Facts

  • All-cash merger consideration of $105.00 per share
  • Unanimous board approval and recommendation to shareholders
  • Voting agreements executed with directors and executive officers holding shares
  • Company termination fee of $46,243,518; Parent termination fee of $111,755,169
  • Equity financing committed by MAPFRE S.A. (Parent's parent company)
  • Conditions: shareholder approval, HSR waiting period, Massachusetts Insurance Commissioner approval, no legal restraint

Financial Impact

Implied equity value approximately $1.54 billion based on 14,680,482 shares outstanding as of July 17, 2026

equity valueshare pricedilution

Risk Factors

  • Regulatory delays or failure to obtain HSR and Massachusetts Insurance Commissioner approval
  • Shareholder vote failure (though insider voting agreements reduce this risk)
  • Transaction litigation challenging the deal
  • Market-wide or sector-specific disruptions delaying close

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq
Sector
Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance
Analyst Consensus
0% bullish (6 analysts)

Investment Themes

Traditional Finance

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
DEFA14A Filing (Primary)0001104659-26-086493
Document: tm2621207d2_ex10-1.htm0001104659-26-086493
Document: tm2621207d2_defa14a.htm0001104659-26-086493
Document: 0001104659-26-086493-index-headers.html0001104659-26-086493
Document: 0001104659-26-086493-index.html0001104659-26-086493
Document: 0001104659-26-086493.txt0001104659-26-086493
9 reports for SAFT
Performance horizon
60% Hit rate @ T+20 3 of 5 directional calls Went positive at some point 4 of 5 best @ T+5▲ +1.66%Jun 11, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for SAFT — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 2, 2026
24d ago
SC 13G
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$103.92awaiting T+20—$104.05 (+0.13%)
Sep 14, 2026
6w ago
DEFM14A
BULLISH ★ 8/10
$103.51 $103.86▲ +0.34%▼ −2.64%$104.05 (+0.52%)
Jul 24, 2026
13w ago
DEFA14A
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$103.20 $103.59▲ +0.38%▼ −3.25%$104.05 (+0.82%)
Jul 24, 2026
13w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 8/10
$103.20 $103.59▲ +0.38%▼ −3.25%$104.05 (+0.82%)
Jul 23, 2026
13w ago
DEFA14A / 8-K
BULLISH ★ 8/10
$103.20 $103.59▲ +0.38%▼ −3.25%$104.05 (+0.82%)
Jun 15, 2026
19w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$71.46 $75.93▲ +6.26%▲ +7.01%$104.05 (+45.61%)
Jun 11, 2026
19w ago
Court Ruling
BEARISH ★ 5/10
$71.81 $74.82▼ −4.19%▼ −2.83%$104.05 (−44.90%)
Jun 9, 2026
20w ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$70.59 $78.28▲ +10.89%▲ +9.45%$104.05 (+47.40%)
Feb 25, 2026
34w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 8/10
$77.75 $73.30▼ −5.72%▲ +0.69%$104.05 (+33.83%)
Showing 9 of 9

US Market Status

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Report published Jul 24, 2026