Continued top-line erosion and GAAP losses with reaffirmed soft guidance (comps +0.5%-1.5%) offer no near-term catalyst. The traffic decline persists despite margin improvement — watch for further debt accumulation and potential covenant issues given $171M debt on negative equity (-$107M stockholders' deficit). Expect continued downside pressure on this $68M market cap name.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Red Robin reported Q1 2026 total revenues of $378.3 million, down 3.6% YoY from $392.4 million, with a GAAP net loss of -$0.12 per diluted share vs. +$0.07 a year ago. Comparable restaurant revenue declined -0.6% (driven by -1.6% traffic), and Adjusted EBITDA fell 2.1% to $27.3 million. Management reaffirmed full-year FY2026 guidance for Adjusted EBITDA of $70-$73 million, offering no positive catalyst. Headline financials (revenue, net income, EBITDA) all declined YoY, making this a bearish report despite a modest improvement in restaurant-level margins.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Total revenues $378.3M, down 3.6% YoY from $392.4M
- GAAP net loss per diluted share -$0.12 (vs. +$0.07 a year ago)
- Comparable restaurant revenue declined -0.6%, driven by -1.6% traffic decline
- Adjusted EBITDA $27.3M, down 2.1% from $27.9M YoY
- Restaurant-level operating profit margin improved 50bp to 14.8%
- FY2026 guidance reaffirmed: Adjusted EBITDA $70-$73M, comparable revenue growth 0.5%-1.5%
- Debt increased to $171.1M from $164.7M at year-end 2025; liquidity $40.8M
Financial Impact
Revenue declined ~$14.1M (-3.6% YoY); net income swung from +$1.2M to -$2.2M; EBITDA fell $2.1M (-8.6% impact); reaffirmed weak guidance provides no upward catalyst
Risk Factors
- Negative equity of -$107M with $175.7M credit facility borrowings vs. only $40.8M liquidity
- Continued traffic declines (-1.6%) despite value menu and marketing spend increase
- GAAP net loss trajectory — 4th consecutive year of losses with no visible path to sustained profitability
- Reaffirmed FY guidance implies no acceleration in H2 2026
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 5 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001628280-26-036443 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-036443-index-headers.html | 0001628280-26-036443 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-036443-index.html | 0001628280-26-036443 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-036443.txt | 0001628280-26-036443 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001628280-26-036443 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 5, 2026 21d ago | 8-K | $8.05 $8.36 | ▲ +3.85% | ▲ +3.30% | $8.20 (+1.86%) |
Sep 17, 2026 5w ago | 8-K | $7.05 $7.01 | ▼ −0.57% | ▼ −2.12% | $8.20 (+16.31%) |
Jun 15, 2026 19w ago | 8-K | $6.05 $6.31 | ▲ +4.30% | ▲ +5.55% | $8.20 (+35.54%) |
May 28, 2026 21w ago | 8-K | $5.06 $5.16 | ▲ +1.98% | ▲ +1.72% | $8.20 (+62.06%) |
May 19, 2026 22w ago | 8-K | $4.55 $4.66 | ▼ −2.42% | ▼ −2.22% | $8.20 (−80.22%) |
May 1, 2026 25w ago | 8-K | $3.58 $3.53 | ▼ −1.40% | ▼ −2.19% | $8.20 (+129.05%) |
Mar 26, 2026 30w ago | DEFA14A | $2.65 $2.59 | ▼ −2.26% | ▼ −1.91% | $8.20 (+209.43%) |
Mar 16, 2026 32w ago | Insider Cluster | $3.27 $3.34 | ▲ +2.14% | ▲ +1.87% | $8.20 (+150.76%) |
Mar 16, 2026 32w ago | Insider Cluster | $3.27 $3.34 | ▲ +2.14% | ▲ +1.87% | $8.20 (+150.76%) |
Feb 25, 2026 34w ago | 8-K | $4.83 $5.03 | ▲ +4.14% | ▲ +4.62% | $8.20 (+69.77%) |
US Market Status
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