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PRESS-RELEASE ·Filed Mar 12, 2026

REFI

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.
MIXED
Impact 5/10
Horizonweeks Processed7mo ago WireGlobeNewswire
Press release · Earnings
Actionable Insight ◆ Mixed

The dividend is fully covered by distributable earnings but at the upper end of the 90-100% payout range, leaving little room for earnings volatility. Traders should monitor asset quality, reinvestment pace, and whether the $616M pipeline translates into yield-accretive originations. Declining book value remains a concern for long-term value preservation.

DirectionMixed
Confidencehigh
Horizonweeks
Final: all horizons settled through T+60d ⚠ clustered
REFI ▼ -2.78% at T+60d
NEUTRAL call -2.78% · α vs SPY -13.48% · entry $11.60 → $11.28
Entry = T+0 close
Mar 12, 2026
via day close
T+1d
+0.00%
call +0.00% · α +0.60%
$11.60
settled 8mo ago
T+5d
+2.90%
call +2.90% · α +3.87%
$11.94
settled 7mo ago
T+20d
-0.80%
call -0.80% · α -2.77%
$11.51
settled 7mo ago
T+60d
-2.78%
call -2.78% · α -13.48%
$11.28
settled 5mo ago

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance (REFI) reported Q4 and full-year 2025 results, showing modest quarterly revenue growth but a decline in annual net income and distributable earnings per share. While net interest income rose slightly year-over-year, net income fell to $36.0M from $37.0M in 2024, and diluted distributable EPS dropped to $1.88 from $2.03. The company highlighted a strong $616M investment pipeline and stable portfolio yields, but declining book value per share and lower earnings relative to dividends raise sustainability concerns.

Key Financial Metrics

Revenue
$55.4M
+0.8% YoY
Adj. EPS
$1.88
GAAP: $1.68

Key Facts

  • Q4 2025 net interest income: $14.2M (up 1.2% YoY), driven by portfolio growth
  • Full-year 2025 net income: $36.0M (down from $37.0M in 2024)
  • Diluted distributable EPS: $1.88 in 2025 vs. $2.03 in 2024
  • Dividend declared: $1.88 per share, matching distributable EPS — payout ratio near 100%
  • Book value per share declined to $14.60 from $14.83 in 2024
  • Investment pipeline increased to $616M as of Q4 2025
  • Subsequent to year-end: $51.1M in new loans funded, $40.4M in repayments

Financial Impact

Annual net income down $1.0M YoY; distributable earnings up slightly to $40.4M but per-share metric declined due to share count increase

net incomeepsdistributable earningsbook value per sharedividend coverage

Risk Factors

  • Dividend sustainability if distributable earnings decline further
  • Exposure to cannabis-sector credit risk and regulatory uncertainty
  • Portfolio yield compression (16.3% in Q4 vs 17.2% YoY)
  • Book value erosion due to net asset declines and share count growth

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq

Investment Themes

Real Estate

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 1 press release from GlobeNewswire.

DocumentAccession Number
PRESS-RELEASE Data (Synthetic)press-3254459
20 reports for REFI
Performance horizon
40% Hit rate @ T+5 4 of 10 directional calls Went positive at some point 5 of 10 best @ T+20▲ +3.49%Aug 19, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for REFI, sortable and filterable
TypeNow
Sep 16, 2026
5w ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$11.01 $10.69▼ −2.91%▼ −4.73%$9.20 (−16.44%)
Aug 28, 2026
8w ago
Insider Buy
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$10.68 $10.95▲ +2.53%▲ +2.42%$9.20 (−13.86%)
Aug 28, 2026
8w ago
Insider Cluster
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$10.68 $10.95▲ +2.53%▲ +2.42%$9.20 (−13.86%)
Aug 25, 2026
9w ago
Insider Cluster
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$10.68 $10.88▲ +1.87%▲ +1.99%$9.20 (−13.86%)
Aug 21, 2026
9w ago
Insider Cluster
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$10.78 $10.68▼ −0.93%▼ −1.40%$9.20 (−14.66%)
Aug 19, 2026
9w ago
Insider Cluster
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$10.61 $10.67▲ +0.57%▼ −0.55%$9.20 (−13.29%)
Aug 11, 2026
11w ago
DEFA14A
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$10.24 $10.37▼ −1.32%▼ −1.72%$9.20 (+10.11%)
Aug 11, 2026
11w ago
425
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$10.24 $10.37▼ −1.32%▼ −1.72%$9.20 (+10.11%)
Aug 11, 2026
11w ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$10.24 $10.37▼ −1.32%▼ −1.72%$9.20 (+10.11%)
Jul 21, 2026
14w ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 1/10
$10.38awaiting T+5awaiting T+5$9.20 (−11.37%)
Showing 10 of 20

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Report published Mar 12, 2026