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DEFA14A ·Filed Aug 11, 2026

REFI

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.
BEARISH
Impact 6/10
Horizonweeks Processed2mo ago SEC0001213900-26-087490
Proxy solicitation materials
Actionable Insight ▼ Bearish

The core business is deteriorating: net interest income, net income, and distributable earnings all declined YoY while leverage increased. The Koach transaction adds $62.5M in second-lien assets but dilutes existing holders by 16.8% and increases risk (subordinated to $39M senior debt). The pending LIEN merger creates a combined BDC but execution risk remains. Monitor Q3 for further earnings erosion and merger vote timing.

DirectionBearish
Confidencehigh
Horizonweeks
Latest settled: T+20d ⚠ clustered
REFI ▲ +5.13% at T+20d
SHORT call ✗ call lost -5.13% · α vs SPY -6.19% · entry $10.24 → $10.76
Next anchor: T+60d in 7d
Latest observation: T+52 -6.49% FF3 residual α
Entry = T+0 close
Aug 11, 2026
via day close
T+1d
+2.10%
call -2.10% · α -1.85%
$10.45
settled 3mo ago
T+5d
+1.32%
call -1.32% · α -1.72%
$10.37
settled 2mo ago
T+20d
+5.13%
call -5.13% · α -6.19%
$10.76
settled 7w ago
T+60d
Pending
in 7d

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance (REFI) reported Q2 2026 results showing a YoY decline in net interest income ($12.8M vs $14.4M) and net income ($7.5M vs $8.9M), with distributable earnings per share falling to $0.43 from $0.51. The company highlighted $59.2M in gross originations and a pending merger with Chicago Atlantic BDC (LIEN) expected to close in Q4 2026, alongside a post-quarter $62.5M private placement (Koach transaction) that issued 16.8% new shares. The filing is a DEFA14A soliciting proxies for the merger, but the underlying earnings release shows a clear operational decline.

Key Financial Metrics

Vote
merger approval

Key Facts

  • Net interest income fell to $12.8M in Q2 2026 from $14.4M in Q2 2025 (-11%)
  • Net income dropped to $7.5M from $8.9M YoY (-16%)
  • Diluted distributable earnings per share declined to $0.43 from $0.51 YoY
  • Book value per share fell to $14.15 from $14.71 YoY
  • Debt/equity ratio increased to 46.6% from 38.8% YoY
  • Gross unlevered yield to maturity declined to 15.8% from 16.8% YoY
  • Post-quarter Koach transaction: 4.3M shares issued (16.8% dilution) for $62.5M in second-lien notes
  • Pending merger with LIEN expected to close Q4 2026; REFI stockholders would own ~50.5% of combined entity
  • Dividend maintained at $0.47/share quarterly
  • Credit loss reserve increased to $9.4M from $5.1M at year-end 2025

Financial Impact

Net interest income down ~11% YoY; net income down ~16% YoY; distributable earnings per share down ~16% YoY; 16.8% dilution from Koach transaction

net interest incomenet incomedistributable earnings per sharebook value per sharedebt/equity ratioportfolio yield

Risk Factors

  • Continued earnings decline from deployment timing mismatch
  • 16.8% dilution from Koach transaction weighs on per-share metrics
  • Merger with LIEN may not close on terms or timing
  • Credit loss reserve growing ($9.4M vs $5.1M) signals potential portfolio stress
  • High leverage (46.6% debt/equity) limits financial flexibility

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq
Sector
Real Estate Investment Trusts
Analyst Consensus
73% bullish (11 analysts)

Investment Themes

Real Estate

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
DEFA14A Filing (Primary)0001213900-26-087490
Document: ea030117601ex99-2.htm0001213900-26-087490
Document: ea0301176-8k425_chicago.htm0001213900-26-087490
Document: 0001213900-26-087490-index-headers.html0001213900-26-087490
Document: 0001213900-26-087490-index.html0001213900-26-087490
Document: 0001213900-26-087490.txt0001213900-26-087490
20 reports for REFI
Performance horizon
44% Hit rate @ T+5 4 of 9 directional calls Went positive at some point 5 of 9 best @ T+20▲ +3.49%Aug 19, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for REFI, sortable and filterable
TypeNow
Sep 16, 2026
5w ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$11.01 $10.69▼ −2.91%▼ −4.73%$9.20 (−16.44%)
Aug 28, 2026
8w ago
Insider Buy
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$10.68 $10.95▲ +2.53%▲ +2.42%$9.20 (−13.86%)
Aug 28, 2026
8w ago
Insider Cluster
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$10.68 $10.95▲ +2.53%▲ +2.42%$9.20 (−13.86%)
Aug 25, 2026
9w ago
Insider Cluster
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$10.68 $10.88▲ +1.87%▲ +1.99%$9.20 (−13.86%)
Aug 21, 2026
9w ago
Insider Cluster
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$10.78 $10.68▼ −0.93%▼ −1.40%$9.20 (−14.66%)
Aug 19, 2026
9w ago
Insider Cluster
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$10.61 $10.67▲ +0.57%▼ −0.55%$9.20 (−13.29%)
Aug 11, 2026
11w ago
DEFA14A
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$10.24 $10.37▼ −1.32%▼ −1.72%$9.20 (+10.11%)
Aug 11, 2026
11w ago
425
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$10.24 $10.37▼ −1.32%▼ −1.72%$9.20 (+10.11%)
Aug 11, 2026
11w ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$10.24 $10.37▼ −1.32%▼ −1.72%$9.20 (+10.11%)
Jul 21, 2026
14w ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 1/10
$10.38awaiting T+5awaiting T+5$9.20 (−11.37%)
Showing 10 of 20

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Report published Aug 11, 2026