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425 ·Filed Aug 11, 2026

REFI

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.
BEARISH
Impact 6/10
Horizonweeks Processed2mo ago SEC0001213900-26-087487
Rule 425 M&A communications
Actionable Insight ▼ Bearish

The earnings miss combined with 16.8% dilution from the Koach transaction and rising leverage (debt/equity 46.6% vs 38.8% YoY) creates a negative setup for REFI shares. Monitor the Q4 2026 merger closing timeline and any updates to the exchange ratio that will reflect the Koach dilution. The stable $0.47 dividend provides a floor, but declining distributable earnings coverage (now $0.43 vs $0.47 dividend) warrants caution.

DirectionBearish
Confidencehigh
Horizonweeks
Latest settled: T+20d ⚠ clustered
REFI ▲ +5.13% at T+20d
SHORT call ✗ call lost -5.13% · α vs SPY -6.19% · entry $10.24 → $10.76
Next anchor: T+60d in 7d
Latest observation: T+52 -6.49% FF3 residual α
Entry = T+0 close
Aug 11, 2026
via day close
T+1d
+2.10%
call -2.10% · α -1.85%
$10.45
settled 3mo ago
T+5d
+1.32%
call -1.32% · α -1.72%
$10.37
settled 2mo ago
T+20d
+5.13%
call -5.13% · α -6.19%
$10.76
settled 7w ago
T+60d
Pending
in 7d

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

No summary provided

Key Financial Metrics

Deal Type
merger

Key Facts

  • Net interest income Q2 2026: $12.8M vs $14.4M YoY (-11%)
  • Net income Q2 2026: $7.5M vs $8.9M YoY (-16%)
  • Diluted distributable earnings per share Q2 2026: $0.43 vs $0.51 YoY (-16%)
  • Book value per share declined to $14.15 from $14.71 YoY
  • Debt/equity ratio increased to 46.6% from 38.8% YoY
  • Gross originations of $59.2M in Q2 2026
  • Koach transaction: 4,306,754 shares issued (16.8% dilution) for $62.5M in second-lien notes
  • Pending merger with LIEN expected to close Q4 2026, REFI shareholders to own ~50.5% of combined entity
  • Dividend maintained at $0.47/share quarterly
  • Credit loss reserve increased to $9.4M from $5.1M at year-end 2025

Financial Impact

Net interest income down $1.6M (-11%) YoY; net income down $1.4M (-16%) YoY; distributable earnings per share down $0.08 (-16%) YoY; 16.8% dilution from Koach transaction

net interest incomenet incomedistributable earnings per sharebook value per sharedebt/equity ratiocredit loss reserve

Risk Factors

  • Declining net interest income and distributable earnings may pressure dividend sustainability
  • 16.8% dilution from Koach transaction reduces per-share metrics and will lower REFI's NAV-based exchange ratio in the LIEN merger
  • Rising credit loss reserve ($9.4M) and two loans on non-accrual signal potential portfolio stress
  • Merger with LIEN may not close on expected terms or timing
  • Cannabis industry remains federally illegal, creating regulatory and financing risk

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq
Sector
Real Estate Investment Trusts
Analyst Consensus
73% bullish (11 analysts)

Investment Themes

Real Estate

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
425 Filing (Primary)0001213900-26-087487
Document: ea030117601ex99-2.htm0001213900-26-087487
Document: ea0301176-8k425_chicago.htm0001213900-26-087487
Document: 0001213900-26-087487-index-headers.html0001213900-26-087487
Document: 0001213900-26-087487-index.html0001213900-26-087487
Document: 0001213900-26-087487.txt0001213900-26-087487
20 reports for REFI
Performance horizon
44% Hit rate @ T+5 4 of 9 directional calls Went positive at some point 5 of 9 best @ T+20▲ +3.49%Aug 19, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for REFI, sortable and filterable
TypeNow
Sep 16, 2026
5w ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$11.01 $10.69▼ −2.91%▼ −4.73%$9.20 (−16.44%)
Aug 28, 2026
8w ago
Insider Buy
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$10.68 $10.95▲ +2.53%▲ +2.42%$9.20 (−13.86%)
Aug 28, 2026
8w ago
Insider Cluster
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$10.68 $10.95▲ +2.53%▲ +2.42%$9.20 (−13.86%)
Aug 25, 2026
9w ago
Insider Cluster
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$10.68 $10.88▲ +1.87%▲ +1.99%$9.20 (−13.86%)
Aug 21, 2026
9w ago
Insider Cluster
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$10.78 $10.68▼ −0.93%▼ −1.40%$9.20 (−14.66%)
Aug 19, 2026
9w ago
Insider Cluster
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$10.61 $10.67▲ +0.57%▼ −0.55%$9.20 (−13.29%)
Aug 11, 2026
11w ago
DEFA14A
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$10.24 $10.37▼ −1.32%▼ −1.72%$9.20 (+10.11%)
Aug 11, 2026
11w ago
425
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$10.24 $10.37▼ −1.32%▼ −1.72%$9.20 (+10.11%)
Aug 11, 2026
11w ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$10.24 $10.37▼ −1.32%▼ −1.72%$9.20 (+10.11%)
Jul 21, 2026
14w ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 1/10
$10.38awaiting T+5awaiting T+5$9.20 (−11.37%)
Showing 10 of 20

US Market Status

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Report published Aug 11, 2026