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EFFECT ·Filed Jul 14, 2026

RDHL

RedHill Biopharma Ltd.
BEARISH
Impact 6/10
Horizonweeks Processed3mo ago SEC9999999995-26-002275
IPO/offering going effective
Actionable Insight ▼ Bearish

Monitor for any Advance Notice under the Purchase Agreement indicating YA will draw down on the equity line — each draw adds selling pressure and dilutes existing holders.

DirectionBearish
Confidencehigh
Horizonweeks
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d
RDHL ▼ -35.86% at T+60d
SHORT call ✓ call won +35.86% · α vs SPY +39.24% · entry $0.7390 → $0.4740
Entry anchored
Jul 13, 03:59 PM ET
via exchange tick
T+1d
+0.55%
call -0.55% · α -0.16%
$0.7431
settled 3mo ago
T+5d
-5.28%
call +5.28% · α +3.98%
$0.7000
settled 3mo ago
T+20d
-18.81%
call +18.81% · α +21.30%
$0.6000
settled 3mo ago
T+60d
-35.86%
call +35.86% · α +39.24%
$0.4740
settled 19d ago

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

The SEC declared effective RedHill Biopharma's F-3 shelf registration (File No. 333-297223) on July 13, 2026. This enables the company to issue and sell securities, including up to 5,000,000 ADSs to YA II PN under an existing Standby Equity Purchase Agreement, creating potential dilution overhang. The F-3 becomes operative after an earlier F-1/A (filed January 2026) covering a separate equity line with YA, amplifying the company's ability to access capital.

Key Facts

  • Effectiveness date: July 13, 2026
  • Registration covers an F-3 shelf
  • Up to 5,000,000 ADSs can be sold to YA II PN under the Purchase Agreement
  • Earlier F-1/A (Jan 2026) covers up to 6,465,559 ADSs for the same selling shareholder
  • Company has a $4M market cap and $1K insider selling in the last 30 days

Financial Impact

Potential dilution up to ~5M ADSs (each ADS = 10,000 ordinary shares) under the Purchase Agreement, with no price floor; proceeds to company up to $25M but at a discount to market (95-97% of VWAP).

dilution

Risk Factors

  • Immediate dilutive overhang from the now-effective shelf registration
  • Equity line pricing at a discount to VWAP (95-97%) creates persistent downward pressure
  • Extremely small market cap (~$4M) amplifies price impact of any sell orders

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq
Sector
Pharmaceutical Preparations
Analyst Consensus
86% bullish (7 analysts)

Investment Themes

Biotech & Drug Discovery

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 3 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
EFFECT Filing (Primary)9999999995-26-002275
Document: 9999999995-26-002275-index.html9999999995-26-002275
Document: 9999999995-26-002275.txt9999999995-26-002275
27 reports for RDHL
Performance horizon
86% Hit rate @ T+60 6 of 7 directional calls Went positive at some point 9 of 11 best @ T+60▲ +40.60%Jun 22, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for RDHL — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 21, 2026
5d ago
6-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$0.4550awaiting T+60—$0.4230 (−7.03%)
Oct 19, 2026
7d ago
6-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$0.5012awaiting T+60—$0.4230 (−15.60%)
Oct 19, 2026
7d ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$0.5012awaiting T+60—$0.4230 (−15.60%)
Oct 13, 2026
12d ago
6-K
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$0.4862awaiting T+60—$0.4230 (+13.00%)
Oct 13, 2026
12d ago
424B5
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$0.4862awaiting T+60—$0.4230 (+13.00%)
Oct 7, 2026
19d ago
6-K
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$0.4740awaiting T+60—$0.4230 (−10.76%)
Sep 1, 2026
7w ago
6-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$0.8700awaiting T+60—$0.4230 (−51.38%)
Aug 31, 2026
8w ago
6-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$0.9000awaiting T+60—$0.4230 (−53.00%)
Aug 7, 2026
11w ago
6-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$0.6050awaiting T+60—$0.4230 (−30.08%)
Aug 6, 2026
11w ago
6-K
NEUTRAL ★ 5/10
$0.5810awaiting T+60—$0.4230 (−27.19%)
Showing 10 of 27

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