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Institutional Cluster

RCAT

Red Cat Holdings, Inc.
NEUTRAL
Impact 4/10
Horizonweeks Processed4mo ago
Institutional cluster: 4 buyers, 0 sellers (bullish)
Actionable Insight • Neutral

The buying is entirely from mega-passive index managers (Vanguard, BlackRock, State Street) with no active funds or hedge funds participating. This is a mechanical index-rebalancing signal, not a stock-specific thesis. Traders should not interpret this as a bullish catalyst — monitor for active-manager participation or a fundamental catalyst (e.g., earnings beat, contract win) to confirm the bullish story. The stock's 91% analyst buy rating already prices in optimistic expectations.

DirectionNeutral
Confidencehigh
Horizonweeks
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d
RCAT ▼ -30.31% at T+60d
NEUTRAL call -30.31% · α vs SPY -34.70% · entry $12.01 → $8.37
Entry = T+0 close
Jun 11, 2026
via day close
T+1d
-6.91%
call -6.91% · α -7.45%
$11.18
settled 5mo ago
T+5d
-6.74%
call -6.74% · α -7.18%
$11.20
settled 4mo ago
T+20d
-23.48%
call -23.48% · α -25.37%
$9.19
settled 4mo ago
T+60d
-30.31%
call -30.31% · α -34.70%
$8.37
settled 7w ago

Executive Summary

Four mega-passive institutional funds (Vanguard, BlackRock, State Street, Fidelity) added $76.9M in aggregate to their RCAT positions during Q3 2025, with BlackRock and Vanguard making the largest absolute increases. This is a capital-weighted allocation signal from the largest index managers, likely reflecting RCAT's inclusion or rebalancing within broad-market indices, rather than a fundamental stock-specific conviction.

Key Financial Metrics

Direction
accumulating
Buy Value
$156.7M
Sell Value
$0.00
Net Flow
$76.9M

Institutional Positions

Net institutional flow: $76.9M

▲ Buyers (4)

InstitutionActionChangePosition ValueValue Δ
VanguardADD+43.9%$57.0M$29.1M
BlackRockADD+35.4%$70.7M$34.0M
State StreetADD+34.4%$28.9M$13.8M
FidelityADD+71.9%$19.0K$11.0K

Key Facts

  • 4 passive index funds accumulated $76.9M net in RCAT during Q3 2025 (total bought $156.7M, zero sold)
  • BlackRock added $34.0M (+35.4% to 6.84M shares); Vanguard added $29.1M (+43.9% to 5.51M shares); State Street added $13.8M (+34.4% to 2.80M shares); Fidelity added $11K (insignificant)
  • No sellers in the cluster — universal accumulation by the largest passive managers

Financial Impact

$76.9M of net institutional buying from 4 funds, representing ~5.9% of current market cap if all purchases occurred at near-quarter-end prices

float ownershippassive fund flow

Risk Factors

  • No active managers buying suggests the stock may not yet have developed a fundamental institution thesis
  • 13F data is 45+ days stale — the cluster may have been partially unwound, especially given recent volatility
  • Pure passive buying provides no signaling value about future stock performance per academic literature

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq
Sector
Services-Prepackaged Software
Analyst Consensus
91% bullish (11 analysts)

Investment Themes

Software & IT

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 1 institutional 13F filing from SEC EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
INST-CLUSTER Data (Synthetic)inst-cluster-RCAT-2025-Q3
26 reports for RCAT
Performance horizon
75% Hit rate @ T+5 9 of 12 directional calls Went positive at some point 11 of 13 best @ T+5▲ +56.70%May 21, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for RCAT — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 23, 2026
4d ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$4.40awaiting T+5——
Oct 2, 2026
25d ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$6.40 $5.77▼ −9.84%▼ −11.00%—
Oct 1, 2026
26d ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$6.33 $5.91▼ −6.64%▼ −7.94%—
Aug 19, 2026
9w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$9.53 $9.28▼ −2.62%▼ −3.74%—
Aug 13, 2026
10w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$11.13 $9.62▼ −13.57%▼ −12.20%—
Aug 10, 2026
11w ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$10.00 $10.44▲ +4.40%▲ +4.45%—
Jul 30, 2026
12w ago
Press Release
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$7.38 $8.67▲ +17.48%▲ +13.86%—
Jul 22, 2026
13w ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 5/10
$7.83 $6.77▲ +13.54%▲ +11.14%—
Jun 11, 2026
19w ago
Institutional Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$12.01 $11.20▼ −6.74%▼ −7.18%—
May 21, 2026
22w ago
Press Release
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$9.03 $14.15▲ +56.70%▲ +55.10%—
Showing 10 of 26

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens Wed (< 1m)

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Report published Jun 11, 2026