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8-K ·Filed May 20, 2026

RCAT

Red Cat Holdings, Inc.
BEARISH
Impact 7/10
Horizonweeks Processed5mo ago SEC0001104659-26-064095
8-K material event: Items 2.01
Actionable Insight ▼ Bearish

The acquisition itself is strategically sound (adds wireless charging capability), but the context of massive concurrent equity raises ($425M in 8 days) overwhelms any positive read-through. The stock faces severe overhang from ~41.7M newly issued shares plus the 1.9M acquisition shares. Watch for further dilution from the earnout and potential registration of the unregistered shares.

DirectionBearish
Confidencehigh
Horizonweeks
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d ⚠ clustered
RCAT ▲ +24.50% at T+60d
SHORT call ✗ call lost -24.50% · α vs SPY -19.49% · entry $8.94 → $11.13
Entry = T+0 close
May 20, 2026
via day close
T+1d
+1.01%
call -1.01% · α -0.81%
$9.03
settled 5mo ago
T+5d
+19.35%
call -19.35% · α -18.11%
$10.67
settled 5mo ago
T+20d
+27.96%
call -27.96% · α -27.22%
$11.44
settled 4mo ago
T+60d
+24.50%
call -24.50% · α -19.49%
$11.13
settled 2mo ago

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Red Cat closed its acquisition of Quaze Technologies, a wireless power transfer developer for drones and robotics, for ~$21M in stock (1,923,308 shares) plus up to $5M in earnout shares. The deal adds a technology that enables autonomous recharging for unmanned systems, but comes on the heels of massive dilutive offerings totaling ~$425M in the past 8 days, creating severe shareholder dilution.

Key Facts

  • Acquired Quaze Technologies for ~$21M in stock (1,923,308 shares) plus up to $5M in earnout shares
  • Closing shares based on 20-day VWAP as of May 18, 2026
  • Earnout consideration up to $5M in shares upon integration, revenue and gross margin thresholds
  • This acquisition follows a $225M underwritten offering (May 14) and a $200M offering (May 12) — total ~$425M in new capital in 8 days
  • The 1.9M acquisition shares add to the ~41.7M shares from the two prior offerings, compounding dilution
  • Quaze will operate as an independent business unit; technology is platform-agnostic for third-party OEMs

Financial Impact

Acquisition consideration of ~$21M in stock plus up to $5M in earnout; combined with $425M in recent offerings, total potential dilution of ~36M+ shares (est. 30%+ of pre-offering float)

dilutionshare countcash position

Risk Factors

  • Massive dilution from $425M in recent offerings compounds with acquisition shares
  • Earnout shares could add further dilution if targets are met
  • Unregistered shares may be registered for resale, adding overhang
  • Integration risk for Quaze technology into Red Cat's product line
  • Revenue contribution from Quaze is unstated and likely immaterial near-term

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq
Sector
Services-Prepackaged Software
Analyst Consensus
91% bullish (11 analysts)

Investment Themes

Software & IT

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 5 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
8-K Filing (Primary)0001104659-26-064095
Document: tm2615163d1_ex99-1.htm0001104659-26-064095
Document: 0001104659-26-064095-index-headers.html0001104659-26-064095
Document: 0001104659-26-064095-index.html0001104659-26-064095
Document: 0001104659-26-064095.txt0001104659-26-064095
26 reports for RCAT
Performance horizon
82% Hit rate @ T+5 9 of 11 directional calls Went positive at some point 11 of 12 best @ T+5▲ +56.70%May 21, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for RCAT — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 23, 2026
4d ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$4.40awaiting T+5—$4.87 (+10.68%)
Oct 2, 2026
25d ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$6.40 $5.77▼ −9.84%▼ −11.00%$4.87 (−23.91%)
Oct 1, 2026
26d ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$6.33 $5.91▼ −6.64%▼ −7.94%$4.87 (−23.06%)
Aug 19, 2026
9w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$9.53 $9.28▼ −2.62%▼ −3.74%$4.87 (−48.90%)
Aug 13, 2026
10w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$11.13 $9.62▼ −13.57%▼ −12.20%$4.87 (−56.24%)
Aug 10, 2026
11w ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$10.00 $10.44▲ +4.40%▲ +4.45%$4.87 (−51.30%)
Jul 30, 2026
12w ago
Press Release
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$7.38 $8.67▲ +17.48%▲ +13.86%$4.87 (−34.01%)
Jul 22, 2026
13w ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 5/10
$7.83 $6.77▲ +13.54%▲ +11.14%$4.87 (+37.80%)
Jun 11, 2026
19w ago
Institutional Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$12.01 $11.20▼ −6.74%▼ −7.18%$4.87 (−59.45%)
May 21, 2026
22w ago
Press Release
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$9.03 $14.15▲ +56.70%▲ +55.10%$4.87 (−46.07%)
Showing 10 of 26

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens Thu (9h 53m)

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Report published May 20, 2026