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Institutional Cluster

PONY

Pony AI Inc.
NEUTRAL
Impact 4/10
Horizonweeks Processed4mo ago
Institutional cluster: 3 buyers, 1 sellers (bullish)
Actionable Insight • Neutral

The cluster is entirely passive/index-driven, likely reflecting PONY's inclusion in or rebalancing of major indices. No active fundamental thesis is evident. Monitor for any active manager 13F filings in subsequent quarters for a genuine signal.

DirectionNeutral
Confidencemedium
Horizonweeks
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d
PONY ▼ -11.45% at T+60d
NEUTRAL call -11.45% · α vs SPY -15.84% · entry $8.30 → $7.35
Entry = T+0 close
Jun 11, 2026
via day close
T+1d
-1.81%
call -1.81% · α -2.35%
$8.15
settled 5mo ago
T+5d
-4.34%
call -4.34% · α -4.77%
$7.94
settled 4mo ago
T+20d
-18.92%
call -18.92% · α -20.81%
$6.73
settled 4mo ago
T+60d
-11.45%
call -11.45% · α -15.84%
$7.35
settled 7w ago

Executive Summary

Three mega-passive institutions (State Street, Fidelity, Morgan Stanley) significantly increased their PONY positions in Q3 2025, with Fidelity and Morgan Stanley roughly doubling their stakes, while BlackRock trimmed a tiny position. The aggregate net buying of $371.5M from passive index/rebalancing flows suggests no active fundamental thesis, but the scale of accumulation is notable for a $3.5B market cap stock.

Key Financial Metrics

Direction
accumulating
Buy Value
$460.4M
Sell Value
$973.0K
Net Flow
$371.5M

Institutional Positions

Net institutional flow: $371.5M

▲ Buyers (3)

InstitutionActionChangePosition ValueValue Δ
FidelityDOUBLED+187.5%$370.4M$294.7M
Morgan StanleyDOUBLED+528.4%$74.4M$67.5M
State StreetADD+43.4%$15.6M$9.2M

▼ Sellers (1)

InstitutionActionChangePrev ValueValue Δ
BlackRockTRIM-42.7%$973.0K-$22.3K

Key Facts

  • 3 mega-passive institutions added $371.5M in net new holdings in Q3 2025
  • Fidelity doubled its stake (+187.5% shares) to $370.4M, the largest buyer
  • Morgan Stanley added +528.4% shares to $74.4M
  • State Street added +43.4% shares to $15.6M
  • BlackRock trimmed -42.7% of a tiny position, reducing value by only $22K
  • All four institutions are mega-passive (index/rebalancing), not active managers
  • 13F data is as of 2025-09-30, with a 45-day reporting lag

Financial Impact

3 institutions accumulated $371.5M in net new positions, while 1 seller reduced holdings by $22K

institutional ownershipfloat

Risk Factors

  • 13F data is 45+ days stale; positions may have been unwound
  • Passive flows provide no fundamental catalyst or thesis

Market Snapshot

Exchange
OTC
Sector
Services-Computer Integrated Systems Design
Analyst Consensus
88% bullish (25 analysts)

Investment Themes

Software & IT

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 1 institutional 13F filing from SEC EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
INST-CLUSTER Data (Synthetic)inst-cluster-PONY-2025-Q3
22 reports for PONY
Performance horizon
67% Hit rate @ T+1 4 of 6 directional calls Went positive at some point 6 of 6 best @ T+60▲ +18.85%Mar 30, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for PONY — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 20, 2026
6d ago
6-K
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$5.04 $5.02▼ −0.40%▲ +0.78%—
Oct 9, 2026
17d ago
6-K
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$5.74 $5.59▼ −2.61%▼ −2.60%—
Oct 7, 2026
19d ago
6-K
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$5.76 $6.04▲ +4.86%▲ +4.26%—
Sep 29, 2026
28d ago
Insider Cluster
BEARISH ★ 5/10
$6.54 $6.24▲ +4.59%▲ +4.77%—
Sep 29, 2026
28d ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$6.54 $6.24▼ −4.59%▼ −4.77%—
Sep 23, 2026
4w ago
6-K
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$7.26 $7.09▼ −2.34%▼ −2.26%—
Sep 4, 2026
7w ago
6-K
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$7.18 $6.76▼ −5.85%▼ −5.38%—
Aug 25, 2026
8w ago
6-K
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$7.28 $7.52▲ +3.30%▲ +2.64%—
Aug 18, 2026
10w ago
6-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$7.75 $7.83▲ +1.10%▲ +0.89%—
Aug 18, 2026
10w ago
Press Release
MIXED ★ 6/10
$7.75 $7.83▲ +1.10%▲ +0.89%—
Showing 10 of 22

US Market Status

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Report published Jun 11, 2026