The strong beat and raised guidance confirm accelerating operating leverage. Watch for continued momentum in Auto (now a $4.8B annualized run-rate) and the ramp of new partner onboards. The positive Fitch outlook may support further credit-driven demand for ABS.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Pagaya Technologies reported a massive Q2 2026 beat across all key metrics, with revenue of $387M (+19% YoY), GAAP net income of $45M (+172% YoY), and adjusted diluted EPS of $1.07 (48% above consensus). The company raised its full-year 2026 GAAP net income guidance by ~25% to $155M–$180M, citing accelerating operating leverage driven by record Auto volume and stable core opex. The stock should re-rate higher on the combination of a strong beat, raised guidance, and a positive Fitch outlook revision.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Network volume of $3.5B beat the $2.875B–$3.075B outlook and grew 33% YoY.
- GAAP net income of $45M hit the top end of the $25M–$45M range, up $29M YoY.
- Adjusted EBITDA of $124M exceeded the $100M–$115M outlook, up 43% YoY.
- Adjusted diluted EPS of $1.07 beat consensus of $0.72 by 48%.
- Full-year 2026 GAAP net income guidance raised to $155M–$180M from $110M–$160M.
- Record ABS funding of $3.7B across 6 transactions; Auto annualized run-rate reached $4.8B.
- Fitch revised corporate rating outlook to Positive, reflecting improved profitability and leverage.
Financial Impact
Revenue of $387M exceeded consensus by $30M; EPS of $1.07 beat by $0.35. FY26 net income guidance midpoint raised by $32.5M (24% increase).
Risk Factors
- Elevated cost of capital and benchmark rates compress FRLPC margins.
- Credit performance could deteriorate if macro conditions worsen, though current vintages are performing well below prior peaks.
- Partner concentration risk remains; a loss of a top partner would materially impact volume.
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 7 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001883085-26-000052 |
| Document: earningspressreleasefina.htm | 0001883085-26-000052 |
| Document: pgy-20260730.htm | 0001883085-26-000052 |
| Document: 0001883085-26-000052-index-headers.html | 0001883085-26-000052 |
| Document: 0001883085-26-000052-index.html | 0001883085-26-000052 |
| Document: 0001883085-26-000052.txt | 0001883085-26-000052 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001883085-26-000052 |
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 5, 2026 21d ago | Insider Cluster | $18.05 | awaiting T+20 | — | $18.88 (+4.60%) |
Oct 5, 2026 21d ago | 8-K | $18.40 | awaiting T+20 | — | $18.88 (+2.61%) |
Sep 29, 2026 26d ago | Insider Cluster | $17.32 | awaiting T+20 | — | $18.88 (+9.01%) |
Sep 18, 2026 5w ago | Insider Cluster | $20.90 $17.43 | ▲ +16.60% | ▲ +15.70% | $18.88 (+9.67%) |
Sep 15, 2026 5w ago | Insider Cluster | $21.64 $16.81 | ▼ −22.32% | ▼ −24.38% | $18.88 (−12.75%) |
Sep 15, 2026 5w ago | Insider Cluster | $21.64 $16.81 | ▼ −22.32% | ▼ −24.38% | $18.88 (−12.75%) |
Sep 3, 2026 7w ago | 3 | $22.98 $18.40 | ▼ −19.93% | ▼ −20.53% | $18.88 (−17.84%) |
Aug 4, 2026 11w ago | Insider Cluster | $21.92 $20.94 | ▼ −4.47% | ▼ −3.23% | $18.88 (−13.87%) |
Jul 30, 2026 12w ago | 8-K | $17.64 $23.26 | ▲ +31.86% | ▲ +27.89% | $18.88 (+7.03%) |
Jun 29, 2026 17w ago | Insider Cluster | $18.25 $16.96 | ▼ −7.07% | ▼ −6.04% | $18.88 (+3.45%) |
US Market Status
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